49ers vs Vikings MNF Prop Bets: Handicapping Another Busy Day for Kirk

Prop bet #1: Aiyuk kidding me?

Entering Week 7, Brandon Aiyuk quietly leads the San Francisco 49ers with 454 receiving yards, and he’s set to be an even more central figure in this MNF contest given Samuel is out and McCaffrey is potentially limited.

Aiyuk has had six or more targets in each of his games so far this year, and he’s coming off a season-high 10 targets against the Browns in Week 6. 

While his red zone targets (and touchdown opportunities) could spike against the Vikings, I prefer the Aiyuk receiving yards prop. He’s hit the Over on this line in three of his five appearances, including a monster 148-yard outing against the Cardinals in Week 4, and there’s a handful of extra targets up for grabs on Monday.  

Brock Purdy was kept in check by a strong Cleveland D-line last weekend, but it’s easy to picture a more productive night here against a Vikings team that’s been a middling unit against the pass this year.

If the hosts stay on-brand and dial up regular blitzes, Aiyuk should be one of the popular targets for Purdy and he continues to be a dangerous YAC threat.

Despite the injuries, I’m expecting a more polished offensive performance from San Francisco in this primetime spot, and Aiyuk is poised for ample volume to go past this number.

Brandon Aiyuk prop: Over 70.5 receiving yards (-113 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Kirk puts in work

The Minnesota Vikings running game has been bottled up time and again this season and their average of 75 rushing yards per outing is in the Bottom 5 in the NFL. I don’t see that changing on Monday when they come face-to-face with a stingy San Francisco run defense.

That piles more pressure on Kirk Cousins’ shoulders. Minnesota’s best chance of pulling off an upset is surely to put the ball in its quarterback’s hands, and there’s every chance that Cousins notches 40+ pass attempts for the fifth time this year. 

The Vikings’ game plan has skewed towards the pass against the league’s better offenses — Cousins threw 47 times against the Chiefs in Week 5 and 50 times against the Chargers in Week 3. It would be no surprise to see Minnesota playing catch-up and slinging passes again here.

Alexander Mattison is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season — and, if the hosts can’t establish some control on the ground, Cousins will have no choice but to air it out to move the chains.

He’s completed 67% of his passes this season and, even without Jefferson, there are enough talented pass-catchers in this Minnesota receiving corps. Cousins may not finish with dazzling numbers, but I expect him to be throwing regularly against this San Francisco juggernaut.

Kirk Cousins prop: Over 36.5 pass attempts (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Safe hands Hock

Minnesota’s Jefferson-less offense was a tough watch against the Bears last weekend on the way to a 19-13 win, in which seven points came from a fumble return TD.

However, T.J. Hockenson remains a beacon of hope for this 2-4 Vikings team as the veteran pass-catcher alongside rookie Jordan Addison and third-year receiver K.J. Osborn.

Hockenson was a focal point last Sunday, with six grabs for 50 yards — two of which went for first downs. He’s set for a busy night again on MNF, but his receiving yards prop feels risky against a San Francisco defense that gives up so few big plays.

Instead, I’m picking his receptions prop. The Minnesota tight end has had 16 targets across his past two outings but he could get to double-digit targets in this game alone if the Vikings fall behind and lean into the passing game.

I see the hosts finding themselves in plenty of third-and-long situations against a ferocious 49ers front seven, and that’s when Cousins particularly looks in Hockenson’s direction.

Hockenson put up a big stat line in his one previous matchup against the 49ers, with eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown with the Lions back in 2021. He may fall short of that production this time, but I like his chances of getting to at least six receptions.

T.J. Hockenson prop: Over 5.5 receptions (-108 at Caesars)