Alvin Kamara Odds and TNF Props: Kamara Zigs When They Jag

On the Week 7 edition of Thursday Night Football, we’ll see the New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars meet at the Caesars Superdome. It’s a fascinating matchup, but our priority here is Alvin Kamara odds — the Saints RB has played three games since returning from his suspension and has already accumulated 285 yards from scrimmage.

With all eyes on Kamara, we’re going to get stuck into the best NFL odds prop markets for the 28-year-old running back. I’ve taken a look at Alvin Kamara-specific markets for my free NFL picks on tonight’s edition of Thursday Night Football.

You can also check out our Thursday Night Football props and Jaguars vs. Saints picks for more ways to navigate the Thursday Night Football odds.

Alvin Kamara TNF prop picks

• Kamara Under 53.5 rushing yards
• Kamara Under 53.5 rushing yards/Kamara Over 31.5 receiving yards/Olave Over 4.5 receptions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Alvin Kamara TNF prop pick

Under 53.5 rushing yards (-101)

The New Orleans Saints struck gold when they drafted Alvin Kamara in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft. After breaking out in his rookie year, he’s become an integral part of the franchise and his ability as a pass-catcher has been a game-changer. 

Kamara arguably isn’t the player he once was, but he’s still a key piece of the puzzle for the Saints and since returning from suspension in Week 4 he’s been featured heavily. He’s had 52 carries and 23 receptions but faces a tough test against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.

Worryingly for Kamara, there are only two NFL teams who have allowed fewer rushing yards per game than the Jags, those being the Lions and Eagles. Through six games, they’ve allowed just 395 rushing yards, an average of 75.3 yards per game, and they’ve faced some elite RBs like Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson in that timeframe. 

Kamara’s rushing yard line sits at 53.5 on TNF, a number he’s beaten twice in three games, but the Jags are a far different prospect to the Patriots and Texans. Despite having 52 carries in those three games, it’s noticeable that Kamara has under four yards per carry. He’s unlikely to reach his current average of 3.8 yards per carry against this defense.

Not only that, but the Jaguars can be got at through the air and I think the Saints are more likely to have success if they focus on getting Chris Olave and Michael Thomas good matchups against the Jags secondary.

For these reasons, I have to take Under 53.5 rushing yards for Kamara against the Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.

Prop: Alvin Kamara Under 53.5 rushing yards (-101 at Caesars)

Alvin Kamara TNF same-game parlay

Kamara Under 53.5 rushing yards

Kamara Over 31.5 receiving yards

Olave Over 4.5 receptions

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+550 +825 at bet365

First up we’ll be going with our best bet. We know Kamara’s quality but the Jags are amongst the best in the NFL for stopping the ground game and with weaknesses in the secondary it makes more sense for the Saints to attack those areas of the field.

That said, while we are attacking the Under on Kamara’s rushing yards, I will be taking Over 31.5 on his receiving yards line. That’s a number he’s beaten in two of three games this year, and crucially, it’s an area that the Jags have struggled with. While they don’t allow many rushing yards, there are only two teams in the NFL who have allowed more receptions to RBs this season and six who have allowed more receiving yards to RBs. There aren’t many running backs in the league who can catch passes like Kamara and the Jags have averaged 40.5 receiving yards against RBs this year.

Finally, we’ll be backing Olave to get Over 4.5 receptions. If the Saints pivot away from the ground game, then it’s likely to be Olave who really benefits. The sophomore has had at least six receptions in four of six games this year, which bodes well for him to have more than 4.5 receptions. Not only that, but he’s had at least five targets in every single game this season, and even going back to last season, he had less than five targets only twice — one of which was his debut.

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