The Cleveland Browns are one the hottest teams in the NFL after winning three straight games under veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. Now they get a primetime matchup at home on Thursday Night Football against the already eliminated New York Jets.
The Browns are heavy favorites in the Week 17 NFL odds and will be looking to win a fourth straight game behind the fantastic play from wide receiver Amari Cooper.
I’ve taken a closer look at the Amari Cooper odds to give my free NFL picks for the Jets vs. Browns on December 28.
Be sure to keep up to date on the TNF odds and check out our Jets vs. Browns predictions, along with our TNF props.
Amari Cooper TNF prop picks
- Longest reception Over 22.5 yards
- Longest reception Over 22.5 yards + David Njoku Over 48.5 receiving yards + David Njoku anytime TD
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Amari Cooper TNF prop pick
Longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
There is no doubt that Amari Cooper is a big fan of Joe Flacco taking over the offense. In the last three weeks, he has seen a whopping 37 targets that translated to 22 catches for 451 yards and three touchdowns. That includes last week’s franchise record of 265 receiving yards.
The New York Jets have a fantastic secondary but have been a bit inconsistent with their effort given how bad the offense has been this season. The New York defense ranks second in the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. It also ranks first in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year.
The question is can anyone stop the Flacco/Cooper connection right now? The last time Cooper faced a secondary that was excellent against wide receivers was in Week 7 against the Colts, but PJ Walker was behind center. Cooper saw eight targets but ended up with only two catches for 22 yards.
Cooper lines up on the outside 76% of the snaps, so he will see a lot of star corners D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner. However, just two weeks ago they allowed Jaylen Waddle to go off for eight catches, 142 yards, and a touchdown despite Tyreek Hill being out. However, if you take away the two games against the Dolphins, only AJ Brown back in Week 6, CeeDee Lamb in Week 2, and Stefon Diggs in Week 1 managed to break 100 yards receiving against this secondary.
Because of this, I do believe this will be a heavier run game for the Cleveland Browns and maybe some more passes over the middle to David Njoku, who has also enjoyed better success with Flacco. However, I will still expect to see at least one successful deep shot to Cooper at some point in this game.
In the last two games, Cooper has seen seven receptions for at least 20 yards. He has 10 games this season overall with at least one catch of 20+ yards. Even against a great defense, he will take the top off at least once for a big play.
Prop: Longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Amari Cooper TNF same-game parlay
Amari Cooper longest reception Over 22.5 yards
David Njoku Over 48.5 receiving yards
David Njoku anytime TD
There are a couple of plays I like in this game to combine with our best bet for a nice parlay.
The Jets have allowed the opposing tight end to surpass 4 catches in each of their last four games. Those tight ends were Logan Thomas, Brevin Jordan, Durham Smythe, and Kyle Pitts. None of those compare to this year’s version of David Njoku. I love Njoku to surpass 50 receiving yards here, as he has done so in five of his past seven games.
Finally, I am going to stick with Njoku to score a touchdown. He has four touchdowns in the past three weeks with Flacco throwing him the ball. He is Flacco’s favorite redzone target and the Jets have been culpable to allow TE receiving TDs. They have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends of their 16 passing touchdowns allowed.
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