Atlanta Falcons Odds, Predictions, and Betting Preview 2022: Flightless Birds

The Atlanta Falcons’ infamous Super Bowl collapse happened way back in 2017 but it took until 2022 for that crushing loss to finally rot the franchise from the inside out. 

The Falcons are in Year 2 of their rebuild under head coach Arthur Smith, with a revamped roster that fails to feature Matt Ryan at quarterback for the first time since before the MCU got underway.

Atlanta was just good enough to win seven games over piss-poor opponents in 2021 but owned a -8.6 average margin per game (28th), tricking down into a 6-10-1 ATS mark. That sinks the team to a collective 34-48-1 against the spread (41.5%) since blowing that 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI.

With the final remnants of that cursed team purged, can the healing begin in the ATL? We get out the band-aids and holy water and see how the NFL odds stack up for the Atlanta Falcons 2022 betting preview.   

Atlanta Falcons futures odds

Best futures bet: Under 5 wins (-140)

Some shops are dealing Under 5 (-140) while others are down to Under 4.5 (EVEN) on the Falcons win total. 

Depending on where you bet, the lookahead lines have Atlanta as an underdog in 16 of 17 games with that lone outlier a pick’em versus Chicago in Week 11. Others have the Falcons -1 hosting the Bears. But beyond that matchup, it’s difficult to see this team getting past five wins. 

Considering the craptacular roster, QB situation, a ninth-ranked strength of schedule and my QB SOS putting this defense up against the 12th hardest lineup of opposing quarterbacks, you may not need the extra padding for a push at Under 5 wins.

Atlanta Falcons betting overview

What will win bets: Soft middle of schedule

The Falcons jump right into the fire in 2022, opening against the rival Saints in Week 1 and playing against some quality competition in the first two months of action (Rams, Browns, Bucs, 49ers, Bengals). To toss gas on those flames, four of the first seven contests come on the road.

Things get much softer by Week 8. Save for a Week 9 matchup with the Chargers, Atlanta has “winnable” games versus Carolina (twice), Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh before a bye in Week 14, and only travels twice in that span. That’s also a major downtick in QB quality compared to the bookends of the schedule.

There’s a very good chance ATL is 0-7 before hitting the gooey center of the schedule and those short lookahead lines set for this lighter stretch could balloon as the betting markets turn their backs on the Falcons. That’s when the vultures descend upon Atlanta and pick apart good line value with a very bad team.

What will lose bets: Quarterback play

Smith is dedicated to running the ball and needs a reliable rushing game to set up his play-action-heavy playbook, capturing his Music City magic with the Titans. However, Atlanta lacks the talent to pull this off. Cordarrelle Patterson is a fine weapon, but defenses will sell out on stopping the run and will challenge the Falcons to throw the football.

Enter veteran QB Marcus Mariota, who’s tossed a total of 30 forward passes over the past two years. He was also the guy Smith benched in place of Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. The RPO doesn’t work without a “P” and should Mariota falter, you’re handing the keys of this complex offense over to rookie Desmond Ridder.

And if rival stop units don’t make the Falcons throw, Atlanta’s porous defense may give up more than enough points (29th in points allowed in 2021) to force Smith’s hand at passing. From there, opponents can bring the heat against one of the worst offensive lines in the league (173 sacks allowed since 2018).

Atlanta Falcons game-by-game odds

As mentioned, lookahead lines can vary with the Falcons book-to-book, which is something we’ve seen with bottom-tier teams as oddsmakers don’t really know how to rate the worst of the worst. Based on those spreads, the Falcons are projected to win one to 1.5 games (splitting the difference on pick’ems), which falls well below the season win total of five (Under -140). 

Season specials have Atlanta priced at +400 to have the fewest wins in 2022 and pegged at a tempting +2,000 to go winless, which has legs considering the Falcons face a much tougher slate (9th in SOS/12th in QB SOS) after running the third-weakest track in 2021.

We’ve pointed out the sea of red this franchise has left football bettors stranded in (T-31 worst bet in NFL since 2017) and all those plus-points in the chart below may not reverse those returns. The Falcons are catching more than a field goal in a dozen games this year but are 9-16-1 ATS as dogs of +3.5 or higher since 2017, including a 1-6-1 ATS count in 2021.

Atlanta Falcons Pro betting insights

Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)

This is a rebuilding season and I won’t be surprised if Desmond Ridder makes multiple starts for the Falcons this year. Atlanta Under 2 division wins (available at a few shops) is a solid bet.

Catch the Hitman NFL Release Show on Covers every Thursday and Friday throughout the NFL season!

Adam Chernoff, The Simple Handicap podcast (@adamchernoff)

Atlanta Falcons early season forecast

A classic NFC South grudge match kicks off the 2022 campaign for the Falcons, who host New Orleans in Week 1. This spread opened as low as Atlanta +3.5 and has climbed as high as +5.5 despite a likely suspension coming for Saints RB Alvin Kamara. The total has ticked down as low as 41.5 points as Smith’s rush-first approach slams into NOLA’s reputable run defense.

Football bettors get the biggest spread of the lookahead lines in Week 2 when the Falcons travel to play the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. Books are giving Atlanta 13 points – a spread that will likely rise by gameday. The biggest of big dogs couldn’t make the most of those points in 2021, with underdogs of +10.5 or higher going just 15-24-2 ATS (39%) last season.

Atlanta stays on the West Coast for a trip to always-loud Lumen Field in Week 3 to face another franchise in rebuild mode. Seattle takes on Denver and visits San Francisco in its openers, which means this may be a battle of 0-2 teams and one of the rare spots in which Atlanta may have the edge QB-wise. As of this writing, you can find the extra half-point hook on the Falcons at +3.5 at some books while others deal a field goal.

Atlanta Falcons spot bet

Week 10: @ Carolina (+3.5, 44)

There aren’t many “play-on” games for the Falcons but as we mentioned, the middle of the schedule could offer up some juicy lines that are just too inflated to pass up. Currently, Atlanta is +3.5 at Carolina for a Thursday Night Football affair in Week 10 — jumping up from +3 after the Panthers traded for Baker Mayfield.

Carolina could be worn down before taking the field on a short week after playing back-to-back road games in Weeks 8 and 9: a trip to the ATL and a roadie to Cincy. The Falcons face the same short turnover for this TNF trek but don’t have the same grind, playing at home in the two games prior. Atlanta has also won and covered at Carolina in each of the past four seasons.

Atlanta Falcons totals tip

Gone are the monstrous Over/Under numbers of past Falcons teams, who consistently saw totals of 50-plus. This year, Atlanta has only one number of 50 or more (51 O/U @ Bucs Week 5) and instead has six games with totals of sub-45. 

The Falcons are one of the toughest teams to lock down for Over/Under projections. You can take nothing from last season’s offense into account and can expect a quick-hitting RPO attack that leans on the run game and short hits to TE Kyle Pitts and big rookie WR Drake London. Sounds like Unders, right?

Defensive coordinator Dean Pees put an emphasis on the pass rush during the draft and free agency after the team registered a league-low 18 sacks and 16.7% pressure rate last year, which hung the secondary out to dry. There’s a significant shake-up in defensive starters compared to 2021, which is probably a good thing. Atlanta has a talented secondary but faces a QB SOS ranked 12th with many elite-level passers on deck. If Pees can cook up some pressure, Atlanta’s defense won’t spoil your Under bets.

The Falcons were once a sound Under play at home, going 15-24 O/U as hosts since 2017 (61.5% Unders), thanks in large part to those lofty totals and the public perception of a high-octane offense. Who knows what will happen with Ryan gone and those home totals dwindling in 2022? 

Star power: Kyle Pitts props

Best prop: Over 4.5 touchdowns (-115)

Kyle Pitts’ fantasy owners couldn’t believe the highly touted tight end finished with only one touchdown in his rookie campaign. Atlanta’s red-zone woes were supposed to go away with the hire of Arthur Smith, who made Tennessee one of the best RZ offenses in the NFL.

Losing a quality QB like Matt Ryan will put a ding in Pitts’ production in terms of yardage and receptions, but the RPO playbook would be downright stupid to ignore the 6-foot-6 TE inside the 20-yard line. Last year, Pitts was targeted 16 times in the red zone but caught just six of those passes (one for a TD). 

Those stats will improve, especially with the way Smith uses TEs near the goal line. The position posted 17 RZ TDs in his two seasons as the Titans OC. Fantasy footballers rejoice! 

Atlanta Falcons trend to know

Given the overhaul in Atlanta, tangible trends with this team aren’t worth spit. However, if we look at head coach Arthur Smith, we do find a positive note for what could be an otherwise negative season. 

Smith has a sound record in tight games, going back to his two seasons as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee. While he only had one hand on the wheel in those contests, the Titans were 10-5 SU (5-9-1 ATS) in one-score games between 2019 and 2020. 

That carried over to Atlanta, with the Falcons posting a 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS) record in one-score outings last season — a flip from the team’s terrible 2-8 SU (5-5 ATS) mark in one-score contests in 2020. One-score results can easily regress, but Smith seems to hold up to the pressure.

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