We’ve reached the point of the year where football bettors are absolutely foaming at the mouth to get down some betting action. Thankfully, we’re on the cusp of another NFL preseason to help curb that appetite until the real games get here in September, and with the return of the preseason, comes the return of one of the greatest betting runs in modern gambling history.
An unkindness to opposition
The Baltimore Ravens are on an incredible tear that’s seen them go a ridiculous 26-5 ATS with a 28-3 outright record in their last 31 preseason games. This beautiful trend began all the way back on August 7, 2013 and includes 23 straight outright wins coming into this year’s preseason.
Digging a little bit deeper into Baltimore’s preseason excellence, they actually appear to be getting stronger as we get deeper into the trend, as they’re obliterating a lot of these spreads. Their last 14 preseason games have seen them win by an average of 14 points which has resulted in eviscerating nine of the 14 spreads by 10 or more points. They also have seven straight outright wins as an underdog in the preseason.
So, why have they been so incredibly successful?
Recipe for success
From a betting standpoint, NFL preseason odds tend to be on the low side, and oddsmakers aren’t making special adjustments for Ravens games due to the trend. In fact, they’ve only been favored by more than five points on three occasions during their 31-game tear. Oddsmakers are perhaps catching on, however, as the Ravens closed as a 6.5-point favorite in their most recent preseason game – August 27, 2022 vs. Washington. They won outright but failed to cover. This was their highest spread in a preseason game since 2011.
From a team performance perspective, I scoured the internet hoping to find an answer, but there’s truly no one key indicator. The team is fully aware of its preseason success, but John Harbaugh modestly downplays it for the most part, while also saying the Ravens probably actually play their starters less than other teams in the preseason.
While he doesn’t come right out and say it, I do think it’s fair to assume that the Ravens emphasize winning more than other teams do in the preseason. The preseason serves a different purpose for some head coaches, but strong preseason play has been a staple under Harbaugh since he took over head coaching duties for the team in 2008. The team has posted a .781 win % in 55 games (70.9% ATS!) and that continuity and preparation for “meaningless” games is clearly carrying over from year to year.
As to why winning might actually matter to them in the preseason, establishing a winning culture as early as possible each season has led to strong starts in the regular season under Harbaugh. Baltimore has gone 11-4 in his 15 Week 1 games as head coach, so maybe the extra emphasis on winning the meaningless games is intentional, which makes them not so meaningless after all.
Handicapping the trend
Trying to properly handicap NFL preseason games is quite ridiculous when you think about it. The games can be a real crapshoot due to large roles being played by unproven players and the information we’re using isn’t always the most reliable. Sure, sometimes coaches will throw us a bone and reveal the amount of time starters will play, if at all, but we don’t have anywhere near the same amount of information as we do for a regular season game.
With the 2023 preseason upon us, you can go ahead and make your bets based on your own personal assumptions or line movement – I’ll probably do a little bit of that too. But when it comes to the Baltimore Ravens, there’s no need to play connect the handicapping dots or do intensive training camp research. If the spread is fair, I’ll happily continue to back this preseason betting locomotive until they fall off the track. Fire away!
