The promise of the Baltimore Ravens is always there: You have a solid head coach in John Harbaugh and a great quarterback in Lamar Jackson acting as pillars for success.
However, over the past couple of years, those pillars have been infested with termites.
Harbaugh is a Super Bowl-winning coach, but it’s been a minute since Baltimore had any postseason success. The organization has swapped out coordinators around him in each of the past two seasons, so at what point are the Ravens’ playoff problems blamed on Harbaugh?
Jackson is brilliant when healthy... and you know how this sentence ends. Lamar has missed 11 games over the past two seasons. You can’t really handicap potential injuries but with Jackson, it almost feels like you should.
The run-heavy playbook of past years was able to soften the loss of Lamar, as the Ravens went 6-4-1 ATS in those 11 games without him, but with new offensive coordinator Todd Monken promising a dynamic attack that will spread the field and utilize a restocked receiving corps, Baltimore is banking on its $260 million investment to not only play all 17 games but take the next step as a quarterback.
The 2023 NFL odds echo that promise. Depending on the book, the Ravens are favored in as many as 11 of their games with two other contests pegged as pick’em and the NFL futures odds give Harbaugh & Co. a 60% shot at the postseason.
Baltimore has a very high ceiling (if it avoids another termite problem) but also a deep dark basement if the injury bug starts to bite. Let’s explore the whole house in my Baltimore Ravens 2023 betting preview below.
Baltimore Ravens futures odds
| Future bet |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Super Bowl | +2,000 | +1,800 | +2,000 |
| Win conference | +1,100 | +1,000 | +1,200 |
| Win division | +220 | +250 | +250 |
| Make playoffs | -175 | -150 | -160 |
| O10.5 wins | -105 | -102 | -165* |
| U10.5 wins | -115 | -120 | +140* |
*Win total at Caesars is 9.5
Best futures bet: Make the playoffs (-150)
The Yes/No postseason prop for Baltimore ranges as high as -175 at some shops, so always shop for the best price available. Many bettors want more pop from their futures wagers, but this feels like a realistic finish to the regular season for the Ravens.
They’re in a better place than in 2022, especially on offense. Monken is injecting energy and mystery into the playbook, Lamar Jackson has his deal and is setting big goals, and someone other than Mark Andrews is capable of catching balls. The defense enters Year 2 under DC Mike MacDonald and this unit ranked No. 3 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders over the final eight games of the schedule.
Look-ahead spreads have Baltimore in the 10 to 11-win range (Win total 10, Over -125) and that’s enough to send a team to the playoffs most seasons. Baltimore also catches an easy slate in 2023, ranked 21st in strength of schedule.
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Baltimore Ravens betting overview
What will win bets: Rushing game
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Monken can roll out new wrinkles and the receivers’ room has some new faces, but when the chips are down, the Ravens are going to run your ass into the ground.
Running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were in and out of the lineup in 2022 but got healthy just in time for Jackson to go down in the tail end of the season. Rarely did the Ravens have all three in the lineup at the same time, but that trio sends shivers down the spines of defensive coordinators league-wide.
Baltimore is the only team to post a positive EPA per play on the ground over the past four seasons and while things will change with Monken, the Ravens’ run game will be the safety blanket for bettors in the second half of contests.
Baltimore will control time and possession, which also helps the defense secure those spread winners. The Ravens were dreadful in fourth quarters in the first 10 weeks of 2022 (32nd EPA allowed per play in 4Q), but with Roquan Smith showing up and the MacDonald’s D gelling, they tightened up in the home stretch.
What will lose bets: Pass game growing pains
Monken plans to keep opponents guessing with multiple schemes and shifts in tempo, getting away from the methodical, tight running sets of Greg Roman. And you don’t back up the Brinks truck for an MVP QB just to run the ball.
New targets Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, and Nelson Agholor add depth to a passing playbook that leaned heavily on Andrews and allow the Ravens to stretch the field with Jackson’s rocket arm after averaging a measly 6.6 yards per attempt in 2022.
I’m a big believer in Jackson as a passer but there will be chemistry issues and a steep learning curve for this Ravens passing attack in the first half of the calendar — especially with four of the first six games coming away from home. Hopefully, Lamar stays healthy long enough to see it all come together.
Baltimore Ravens 2023 schedule
| Week | Opponent | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs  Houston Texans |
-9.5 |
| 2 | @  Cincinnati Bengals |
+3.5 |
| 3 | vs  Indianapolis Colts |
-7 |
| 4 | @  Cleveland Browns |
+1 |
| 5 | @  Pittsburgh Steelers |
-1 |
| 6 | @  Tennessee Titans |
-5.5 |
| 7 | vs  Detroit Lions |
-3 |
| 8 | @  Arizona Cardinals |
-5.5 |
| 9 | vs  Seattle Seahawks |
-3 |
| 10 | vs Cleveland Browns |
-3 |
| 11 | vs Cincinnati Bengals |
+1 |
| 12 | @  Los Angeles Chargers |
+2 |
| 13 | BYE | |
| 14 | vs  Los Angeles Rams |
-6.5 |
| 15 | @  Jacksonville Jaguars |
+1 |
| 16 | @  San Francisco 49ers |
+3 |
| 17 | vs  Miami Dolphins |
-1 |
| 18 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers |
-3.5 |
Spreads courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
According to the look-ahead lines, the Ravens are giving the points in 11 of their 17 outings in 2023, and depending on where you bet, there are a couple of other games on the fence (PK) as of the start of training camp.
My preseason NFL power ratings place the Ravens at No. 8 (64.7/100) based on their full-season point spread markets and season win total.
Baltimore gets to slowly dip its toe into the new 2023 schedule with a home date against Houston in Week 1, laying -9.5 against a Texans team likely starting a rookie quarterback. My ratings are producing a Week 1 spread closer to Ravens -11.
That said, big chalk isn’t historically great out of the gate with teams laying more than a touchdown (-7.5 or higher) going just 17-30 ATS in the season opener since 2000.
That home stand on September 10 is one of only two games inside M&T Bank Stadium in the opening six slots on the schedule. Baltimore peppers AFC South foes into a road-heavy start that packs all three divisional road stops into the first 28 days. This challenging start ends on the other side of the pond vs. Tennessee in London in Week 6.
Should the new-look offense take time to manifest results during this tough stretch, the market may sour on a Baltimore squad getting plenty of love from the oddsmakers. Depending on the book, the Ravens are favorites of more than a field goal (-3.5 or higher) in as many as nine of their 17 games and giving six or more points in four of those contests.
Baltimore gets its share of standalone games in 2023, with two Sunday night showings (Week 12 and 15), a Thursday game in Week 11, a Monday nighter in Week 16, and the early wakeup call at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Week 6.
Baltimore Ravens schedule spot bet
Week 6: vs Tennessee (UK)
We mentioned the busy start to the schedule for Baltimore, with four of the first six contests coming outside Maryland. That calendar gets especially hairy come Week 6’s international event in London.
The Ravens are 5.5-point neutral-site faves against the Titans in what will be their third straight game away from home and their fourth trip in four weeks. It’s not just the travel and time change that will take its toll on the team, but the planning, logistics, and disruption in routine.
Tennessee is an underdog in all five games leading up to his run-in with the Ravens, so there’s a good chance Baltimore is laying close to a touchdown by the time the alarm clocks go off at 9:30 a.m. ET on October 15. This spread current sits as low as Ravens -5.
Star power: Lamar Jackson props
| Prop | |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +1,500 | +1,500 | +1,400 |
| OPOY | +2,500 | +2,200 | +2,200 |
| Pass yards leader | +4,000 | +4,000 | +3,500 |
| Pass TD leader | +3,000 | +2,000 | OTB |
| O23.5 pass TD | -110 | -118 | -115 |
| U23.5 pass TD | -110 | -108 | -115 |
| Pass yards total | 3,500.5 | 3,400.5 | 3,500.5 |
| Rush yards total | 725.5 | 775.5 | 785.5 |
Best prop: Over 9.5 interceptions (-110)
The biggest knock against taking the Over on any Jackson season-long prop is the fact that he may not play in enough games to threaten the total, given his recent injury issues.
He finished with only seven picks in a dozen games last year and had 13 in 12 games in 2021, despite the Ravens’ run-focused approach. That turnover rate over a full 17-game slate spits out an estimated 14 interceptions on the season, given the Ravens’ former offensive identity.
With new OC Todd Monken, Jackson is expected to drop back more and the offense is said to be turning up the tempo after routinely ranking in the bottom third of the NFL in pace (seconds per play) under Greg Roman. More plays equal more passes and that ups the opportunity for more mistakes.
Add in a slew of new targets and the aforementioned growing pains for the passing game, and it could take more than a couple of games before the chemistry starts cooking. I love me some Lamar, but 10 or more INTs seems like a solid bet, even with him losing games to ailments.
Baltimore Ravens betting insights
Covers Betting Analyst
The Ravens will have a new-look offense this year under OC Todd Monken, who helped lead Ryan Fitzpatrick to a league-leading 9.6 yards/att in passing in 2018.
Lamar Jackson is talking about throwing for 6,000 yards and gone are the days of 12 personnel on over 50% of the offensive plays. If Jackson can stay healthy, he should be a Top-5 contender for MVP as the AFC North is going to be tight at the top with the Ravens hitting double-digit wins.
Covers Senior Betting Analyst
There's lots to like about the Ravens coming into the 2023 season... while there are also some enormous red flags. On the one hand, they’ll bring back one of the top defenses in the league, and Lamar Jackson is finally surrounded by a respectable group of skill players that could take some of the weight off his shoulders.
On the other hand, Lamar has been unable to complete each of the past two seasons due to injuries, while fancy new weapon Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t exactly the poster boy for staying healthy. As a result, the Ravens make for a risky futures betting option, especially as a Top-8 team on the Super Bowl futures odds board.
Baltimore Ravens trend to know
The schedule-makers did the Ravens dirty the past two years, scheduling all of their AFC North road trips — their most important games — towards the end of the season.
Not only was Baltimore’s roster a MASH unit by that point, but it also had to deal with the chilly winter weather in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Baltimore went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in divisional road games in 2021, with all those outings coming in December. Last year, it once again played all three AFC North roadies in the bleak winter months, finishing 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.
This is a departure from John Harbaugh’s historic dominance as a visitor in divisional games. From 2008 to 2020, his Ravens went 22-17 SU and 24-12-3 ATS (65%) in divisional road stops.
This year, Baltimore has a tough task to open the calendar but gets to play all three AFC North away games with a healthy roster in September and October. Can that restore Harbaugh’s heat in these rivalry road trips?
Baltimore's divisional road games
- Week 2 @ Cincinnati (+3.5)
- Week 3 @ Cleveland (+1)
- Week 5 @ Pittsburgh (-1)
