Bears vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 2: Mayfield His the Ground Running

In the wake of Tom Brady’s retirement, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were tagged with one of the lower NFL win totals for 2023 at 6.5 victories.

After stunning the Minnesota Vikings in the season opener, Tampa Bay is already 14% of the way to the Over 6.5 and has a good shot of pumping that pace up to 28% in Week 2. The Buccaneers welcome the Chicago Bears to pirate waters Sunday, and NFL odds have installed the home side as a slim favorite.

Chicago was one of the most hyped teams this offseason after making moves on both sides of the football. However, all those expectations blew away in the infamous Chicago winds after the Bears got blasted 38-20 at home by rival Green Bay in Week 1.

The look-ahead lines set in the summer originally had Chicago as a 2.5-point road chalk in this trip to Tampa, but this line is upside down, with the Bucs laying just less than a field goal.

Is this a classic case of Week 2 overreaction, or should bettors bail on the Da Bears and sail off with Tampa? I pick apart this spread and Over/Under total and give my best NFL picks for the Bears vs. Buccaneers on September 17.

Bears vs Buccaneers odds

Bears vs Buccaneers predictions

Baker Mayfield had a very up-and-down debut in pewter and scarlet. The much-maligned quarterback finished with 173 yards on 21 of 34 passing, with two touchdowns on the road in Week 1.

However, it was Mayfield’s heroics on the final drive of the game that secured the upset for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He picked up a huge first down with a three-yard scramble and then connected on a game-ending 11-yard strike out of the two-minute warning, leading to kneeldowns to kill the clock.

Mayfield’s Week 2 odds rushing yard total opened at 8.5 yards O/U and jumped to 9.5 with early play on the Over before coming back down to 8.5 (Over -115) on Thursday. Many of his player projections for this matchup with the Chicago Bears are calling for more yards than that.

My number comes out to 12.25 rushing yards for the former No. 1 overall pick while some models are calling for yardage outputs of more than 16 on the ground. An angle that’s perhaps being overlooked is that Mayfield’s rushing output was skewed last Sunday.

Mayfield ran eight times for a combined 14 rushing yards against the Vikings, but due to taking a knee three straight times in victory formation, that total was trimmed by three yards, leaving him with 11 in the official boxscore.

He isn’t known for being a mobile QB but won’t hesitate to tuck the ball and put his head down if the situation presents itself — as we saw in the final minutes of Week 1. There will be no sliding from Mayfield.

Chicago allowed 12 yards on three carries against Packers' QB Jordan Love in Week 1, but Green Bay was in a spot in which Love didn’t have to make many plays with his legs. The Bears dialed up pressure on less than 17% of Love’s dropbacks and with the Cheeseheads holding an early lead, their offense was very run-centric (53.33% rushing plays).

Last year, Alan Williams’ defense allowed a league-high 102 rushing attempts by quarterbacks, with those scrambling QBs averaging more than 22 rushing yards per game and a league-worst 20 touchdowns. The crazy thing is, the Bears didn’t face many dual-threat passers — especially in the NFC North — but did give up big rushing days to semi-mobile QBs like Mac Jones, Dak Prescott, and Marcus Mariota.

If you read my NFL Underdogs column for Week 2, you’ll see I’m taking the points with Chicago, suspecting this flip-flopped spread is a product of overreaction to the Week 1 results (I actually bet Bears +3.5 -125 earlier in the week).

When it comes to Bears-Bucs player props, I believe there is value to be had on Mayfield to break away for 10 or more yards as he still finds his way in this Tampa Bay playbook. 

My best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 8.5 rushing yards

Bears vs Buccaneers same-game parlay

Mayfield Over 8.5 rushing yards

Herbert Over 40.5 rushing yards

Bears +3.5

+425 at bet365

Mayfield actually scrambled for 14 rushing yards in Week 1 before kneel downs and his Week 2 projections call for more than his modest total against the Bears.

Khalil Herbert and the rushing game didn’t get a lot of action due to Chicago playing from behind last Sunday. Expect more carries for him in Week 2, with rushing projections flirting with 50 yards.

The look-ahead line for this game was Chicago -2.5 back in the offseason and is now upside down. That move is way too much. However, let’s play it safe with an extra half point on the field goal (a spread I was able to bet earlier this week).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bears vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned, the hype around Chicago’s offseason additions had momentum in the betting markets. That led to the Bears being 2.5-point look-ahead favorites on the road in Week 2.

After the events of Week 1, the operators opened this spread Tampa Bay -2.5 before it climbed as high as -3.5, but buyback showed up on Chicago and slimmed this spread back to Buccaneers -2.5 — with some random field goal lines still hanging as of Thursday afternoon.

My NFL power ratings didn’t suffer the same knee-jerk reaction to the opening games and produced a spread closer to Chicago -3. Given how bad the Bears looked in Week 1, perhaps this line should be closer to a pick’em — still well below this current point spread.

Yes, Tampa did shock Minnesota as a 4-point road underdog last weekend, but three Kirk Cousins turnovers opened the door for that upset. The Bucs were outgained by almost 130 yards, had just 16 first downs, and the offense averaged a measly 3.6 yards per play. These so-so stats came despite Baker Mayfield apparently figuring out the Vikings' defensive signals and knowing what coverage was coming (he did have a pretty solid second half, metrics-wise).

The Bucs face a different dynamic at QB for the Bears. Chicago’s Justin Fields is one of the most dangerous playmakers in the game, with an ability to break away from pressure and pick up big chunks of the field with his legs.

As for Fields’ passing prowess, he’s coming off a bad 2023 debut against the Packers. He completed 24 of 37 passes for just 216 yards, with an average depth of target of 3.1 yards — the lowest among starting QBs in Week 1. That trickled down to a 3-for-15 day on third/fourth down conversions, leaving the Bears' attack struggling to keep pace.

With both offenses sputtering in the season openers, this Over/Under total opened at 42 points and has been chopped down to as low as 40.5 points — a steep decline from the look-ahead Over/Under of 44 points back in the summer.

Covers Consensus shows 56% of early picks on the Under for Week 2. Chicago’s yielded 38 points to the Packers in the opener, going well Over the closing total of 41 points. Tampa Bay’s 20-17 upset road win stayed below the 47-point closing total last Sunday.

Sunday’s forecast is calling for a hot and muggy environment inside Raymond James Stadium. Temperatures will feel like 101 degrees with the humidity along with a chance of thunderstorms.

That could have an impact on players in the second half, especially early into the schedule as teams are working their way into game shape. Both Chicago and Tampa Bay ran quicker paces in Week 1, ranking seventh and ninth in adjusted pace rating respectively.

Whichever team can dominate possession early on and make the opposing defense work extra hard in that sweltering soup could have the upper hand in the final 30 minutes. 

Bears vs Buccaneers betting trend to know

The Chicago Bears are 8-20 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons, including 5-11 ATS as a road pup. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Buccaneers.

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