Bears vs Commanders Odds, Picks, and TNF Predictions: DJ Racks Up Moore Yards

A pair of heartbroken teams have a quick turnaround to kick off our NFL Week 5 odds as the Chicago Bears take on the Washington Commanders as 5.5-point road underdogs with a total sitting at 44.5.

With receiver DJ Moore starting to piece it together as Justin Field's top target in Chicago, should bettors be looking at his NFL odds with a modest receiving yards prop and a seemingly undervalued total thanks to the size of the spread?

Find out below as I dive into the TNF odds and give you my free NFL picks for Bears vs. Commanders on Thursday, October 5. Be sure to also check out our TNF prop picks and Justin Fields odds and props spotlight. 

Bears vs Commanders odds

Bears vs Commanders predictions

As of Wednesday morning, FanDuel has the best number on DJ Moore’s Over receiving yards at 48.5 with some books as high as 50.5. It’s a bit of a discount and a number I’m happy to take the Over with prime time.

DJ Moore is coming off his second 100-yard game of the year, has a 42% air-yard share, and is tied for the team lead with a 21% target share. He also has a healthy 14.5 aDOT and a surprisingly high 80% catch rate, which is tough to do with Justin Fields throwing the ball.

I’m well aware that Fields and the Chicago Bears offense padded their numbers vs. the worst defense in the league last week in Denver, but Washington has not been as stout as projected and has been an average team vs. the pass and even worse vs. the run. 

Washington is also just one of six defenses that are allowing 200+ yards to opposing wide receivers on the season per game. Over the last three weeks, six different WRs have collected at least 66 receiving yards vs. the Commanders.

It’s never fun riding a ticket that relies on Fields, but over the last three weeks, Moore has totaled 17 catches on 22 targets for 276 yards and two scores. Fields also finished with the third-best CPOE in Week 4 which has always been his downfall and he completed all 16 of his first-half passes. 

Even without garbage-time yards, I like this Over. There aren’t many mouths to feed in this offense and Moore can hit this Over in three catches. If Moore is facing a lot of soft coverage late in the game with Chicago trailing, Milestone Overs are in play at 75+ at +270.

It’s a good number for a player who has hit this Over in three straight games and doesn’t have much competition for targets as a big underdog. 

My best bet: DJ Moore Over 48.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bears vs Commanders same-game parlay

Howell TD

Moore Over 48.5 receiving yards

Over 42.5

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+625 +938 at FanDuel

Howell can find the end zone and has two rushing TDs in the NFL over five starts. He had 11 rushing TDs in his final year at UNC as a Junior, as well. The Bears are also a good team to target for good plus-money TDs as they are allowing 4.3 scores a game which ranks as the second highest. 

Moore has more than 40% of the team's air yards and has two games of 100-plus yards. The Commanders are not a great defense and if points are to be scored, Moore will be the benefactor. 

This total has also taken a lot of money driving the number from 42.5 to 44.5.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Bears vs Commanders spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bears are an awful team from top to bottom, but Thursday Night Football comes down to whether bettors trust Sam Howell and the Commanders as a near-TD favorite on a short week. 

Washington took the Eagles to overtime last week but it still wasn’t pretty. Howell took another five sacks to make it 14 over the last two games, Brian Robinson plodded his way to 45 yards on 14 carries, the Eagles took 11 penalties with five of those creating first downs for Washington, and the Eagles put up 34 points and scored just once in two trips to the red zone.

It was a better effort than the 37-3 Week 3 loss to Buffalo where Howell had nine sacks and four interceptions, but this is not a team I trust at -5.5, and the market seems to agree as this number was as high as -7 this week. 

The Commanders seem like a great team to back as a dog, but the protection is worrisome and Howell’s decision with the ball can be an issue. It’s a team that nearly lost to the Cards in the opener as a touchdown favorite and almost lost to the Broncos in Week 2, who scored 10 points in the final two minutes and missed a 2-point conversion to tie. 

Everyone knows the Bears are bad. They could be missing two starters in the secondary again, but the backdoor is wide open on the short week. I’m not betting on the Bears, but I’m very much against backing the Commanders at -5.5 — especially with the health of Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson in the air after a DNP on Monday’s walkthrough.

Some books hit -7 but there was pretty quick resistance. Pinnacle stayed pat at -6.5 before moving with to 5.5 after a look-ahead line of -4.5. 

This could have been some "fake" money coming in at -6.5, driving the number up to -7 where there was heavy buyback at +7 to move it back down to 6.5 and then eventually 5.5. Moving a line only to hit harder the other way is something bettors should be aware of. 

The total was 42.5 on the look-ahead and is as high as 45 as of Tuesday afternoon. The Bears have been a great Over team, going 4-0 O/U to begin the year and they give up a ton of yards/points with only Denver allowing more yards per play than Chicago at 6.1. 

The injuries to the secondary are a concern but I’d want to know if Dotson and Samuel were a go before I’d touch the inflated total of 45.

Speaking of inflated, Justin Fields’ numbers Sunday need to be taken with a grain of salt. It came against the Broncos and I’d suggest everyone play their opposing quarterback’s alternate passing yard Overs going forward. Fields threw for a career-high 335 yards and started the game 16-for-16.  

Washington is an average defense vs. the pass and a Bottom-10 unit vs. the run while both clubs rank in the bottom half of the league in generating pressure on opposing QBs. 

Looking at usage, Chicago’s DJ Moore has 42% of the team’s air yards and has topped 100 yards in two of four games this year. Khalil Herbert had 18 of the team’s 23 RB carries last week while Cole Kmet tied for the team-high in targets (nine). He also has a 21% target share which equals Moore’s.

Washington doesn't have a 20% target share receiver as Terry McLaurin, Samuel, and Dotson all range from 15.2% to 19.8%. All three saw at least eight targets last week as Howell spread the ball around. If one of Samuel or Dotson were to sit, the healthy receivers could see a very good volume on Thursday. 

Bears vs Commanders betting trend to know

The Commanders have only cashed their team total Over in three of their last 10 home games (-5.60 units / -46% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Commanders.

Bears vs Commanders game info

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