Bears vs Commanders TNF Prop Bets: Kmet Proves Reliable for Fields

Prop bet #1: B-Rob keeps rolling

The Washington Commanders receivers caught the eye in Sunday’s 34-31 overtime loss in Philadelphia, but the hosts are at their best when they feed Brian Robinson Jr. in the ground game. B-Rob has averaged 18.5 carries in the Commanders’ two wins and just 12 in their losses.

This TNF matchup should be a tasty one for Robinson Jr., with the Bears allowing 115 rushing yards and 34 points per game.

The Chicago secondary was shredded at the weekend as the Broncos scored 24 second-half points — and an overcorrection to fix those holes could leave the visitors vulnerable up front.

While I like the Over on the Washington power back’s rushing yards, there’s always the threat of backfield mate Antonio Gibson grabbing a larger share of the snaps or the Commanders leaning more on the passing game if they fall behind, as unlikely as that feels here.

Instead, I’m picking Robinson Jr. to find the endzone. He’s got four touchdowns through the first four weeks — three as a rusher, one as a receiver — and the Bears have already given up eight touchdowns to running backs this season.

B-Rob has history against Chicago too after scoring the first touchdown of his NFL career in last season’s 12-7 win over the Bears at Soldier Field.

The Commanders are looking to avoid a three-game losing streak after a promising 2-0 start — and Robinson Jr. holds the key to putting points on the board. I like the plus-money odds for a fifth score of the year on Thursday night.

Brian Robinson Jr. prop: Anytime TD (+100 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Misfiring Fields

Justin Fields’ critics have been noisy over the first month of the season — and he missed the chance to silence them in Week 4 as the Bears wasted one of their quarterback’s best halves of football.

It’s been a familiar story with Fields this year, with moments of magic mixed in with bad decisions and costly turnovers. There’s plenty of blame to go around after the visitors’ 0-4 start, but a QBR below 25 in his first three games tells its own story.

Facing a ferocious Washington D-line and vocal home crowd on the road here, I see it getting worse for Chicago before it gets better — and I’m taking the Over on 0.5 picks for Fields at FedExField.

He’s had at least one interception in each of his last five games dating back to Week 18 last season, and there’s real unpredictability when he drops back on third-and-long.

Though the Commanders only have two picks so far this season, the threat of Jonathan Allen, Chase Young, and Montez Sweat is likely to mean a collapsing pocket and rushed throws for Fields. He’s already been sacked 17 times this year. 

The game flow will be a factor, but there’s every chance that Washington jumps out to an early lead and forces the Bears to trust Fields and his receivers. If that happens, I see turnover opportunities for this talented Commanders defense.

Justin Fields prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (+102 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #3: Bet on Kmet

If Fields is under siege in this TNF showdown, his two likeliest outlets are D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet — and I expect the Bears to keep their tight end busy on short routes for quick passes.

The Fields-Kmet connection was a huge factor for Chicago against the Broncos on Sunday as the Bears took control in the first half. Though that level of production likely isn’t sustainable, Kmet finished with seven catches on nine targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns.

Taking on a Washington pass rush that’s equipped to force checkdowns, I see Kmet picking up where he left off against Denver. He’s hit the Over on this receiving number in three of his four outings this year and has only seen fewer than six targets once.

This has the makings of a true breakout year for Kmet. Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has made him an even bigger part of the passing game, especially on third down, and the fourth-year tight end is on pace for career highs in catches, targets, and yardage. 

Despite the Commanders’ D-line strengths, they’re allowing 230 passing yards per contest this year, and I’m picking Kmet to be a difference-maker as the Bears chase their elusive first win.

Cole Kmet prop: Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)