Early Bears vs Lions Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Week 13

There was a time when the Detroit Lions’ annual Thanksgiving Thursday game was as tough to stomach as your uncle’s “noodle surprise” casserole. Those days are over.

My Bears vs. Lions predictions are all over the hosts, who are top of the table in the NFC and have won nine in a row. 

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this NFC North rivalry and give my early NFL picks for Thursday, November 28 below.

Bears vs Lions predictions

Early spread lean
Lions -10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Detroit Lions are everything you could want in an NFL bet right now, not only blasting the competition but coming through against the spread most weeks. The Lions have failed to cover only twice all season, which is why we’re seeing a sizable spread for Thanksgiving.

Bookies opened Detroit as a 10.5-point home favorite, and nobody has had the giblets to bet against the Lions in the first 24 hours of action. That spread has stayed put and will likely only go up, with public support for the NFL’s best bet surging on the holiday.

If you’re laying the lumber with the home side, you shouldn't question if Detroit can win by 11 or more, but rather, is Chicago bad enough to lose by that many?

This Chicago Bears losing skid extended to five games in an overtime loss to Minnesota on Sunday, but we’ve seen this team be competitive against NFC North foes like the Vikings and Packers. 

That said, Chicago could be running on empty after that OT loss gutted any remaining morale and left the Bears gassed on a short travel week. If you're betting on Detroit, it’s likely best to do it now.

Running back David Montgomery is listed as questionable after injuring his shoulder in Week 12, but he told reporters he plans to play on Thanksgiving. An update on his status could be the tipping-off point for this spread to run higher closer to kickoff.

If this line does creep toward 13 points, I could see interest in the underdog.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 48.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis
This total has jumped from 47.5 to 48.5 since opening on Sunday night and action could dictate more movement come Thanksgiving. 

The holiday Thursday is one of the most public days on the NFL sports betting calendar, which means surplus action on the home favorites and Overs. Books will have high liability on those options, so we could see this total tick up closer to 50 points.

This Lions offense has been firing on all cylinders since Week 4, posting 30+ points in five of its last eight games overall. Detroit has played just three of those contests inside Ford Field and has topped the total in each of those home stands, averaging a league-high points per play in Motown.

Chicago’s offense has improved since firing coordinator Shane Waldron ahead of Week 11. The Bears' success rate per play has spiked in those two outings, and they’re coming off their highest-scoring effort since Week 6, putting up 27 points and almost 400 yards against Minnesota.

Rookie QB Caleb Williams has benefitted most from that offensive shakeup, passing for 571 yards and completing better than 70% of his attempts the last two weeks. He faces an aggressive Lions attack that blitzes at a high rate but has actually performed well, in terms of PFF rating, against the blitz.

This early kickoff could be a fun one. I’m leaning Over inside Ford Field.

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