Classic NFC North rivals clash for the first time this season when the Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12.
The Packers opened as low as -7.5 for this divisional primetime game and have been bet up to -8.5 with early money on the Cheeseheads. Green Bay is coming off an overtime loss at Indianapolis and has failed to cover in three of its last four outings. Chicago is off a bye following four straight defeats (1-3 ATS).
Check out NFL free picks and predictions for Bears vs. Packers on November 29.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Betting Preview
Weather
The forecast for Green Bay has partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 34 degrees at Lambeau Field, with winds blowing up to 14.5 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bears: Akiem Hicks DE (Out), Sherrick McManis DB (Out), Nick Foles QB (Out).
Packers: None to report.
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Packers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Packers.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Can a week off fix the Bears offense? The run game is the biggest blemish for this playbook, picking up a mere 3.6 yards per carry on the year (tied for last) and ranks 31st in rushing offense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Without that threat of the run game, opposing pass rushes have been teeing off on Chicago, sacking its QBs 25 times in 2020. Nick Foles (questionable with a hip injury) is inaccurate at the best of times but when the offensive line is allowing just 2.2 seconds in the pocket before all hell breaks loose, it’s easy to see why the Bears have scored more than 20 points just once (23 points in Week 8) since October 4.
Should Foles not be able to play in Week 12, Chicago could go back to Mitchell Trubisky, who hasn’t really played since September 27 (he got hurt in limited work in Week 8). He was back testing his ailing shoulder this week, but Chicago may be stuck with third-stringer Tyler Bray as a safety net.
The Packers are coming off an ugly game against the Colts, marred by penalties (7 for 45 yards) and turnovers (three lost fumbles and one interception), yet they were a Marquez Valdes-Scantling fumble from coming away with the victory in the extra frame.
Green Bay hung 31 points on a Colts defense that ranked among the league elite – despite coughing the ball up four times – and while the Bears stop unit can keep them in games, Chicago could be in over its head if Aaron Rodgers gets started early and has Matt Nagy’s team playing from behind.
Green Bay is the top first-half offense in the NFL and is putting up an average of 22 points in the first 30 minutes over the past three games. Chicago, on the other hand, rests near the bottom of the league in first-half production, including only 6.3 points per opening half in its previous three outings.
PREDICTION: Green Bay -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Regardless of past success, the Bears have to try to get something going on the ground. And the Packers may just be opening Nagy needs. Green Bay is 20th in rush defense DVOA, giving up 4.4 yards per carry, and it allowed Indianapolis to rack up 140 yards on 37 carries last Sunday.
Successful or not, those handoffs should keep gains short and the clock ticking. The run game can also give the defense a bit of a breather and make Rodgers wait his turn for the football. The Bears stop unit is fourth in defensive DVOA and third in pass defense for that advanced metric.
Rodgers has looked rattled at times the past two weeks and bookended great first and fourth quarters with messy second and third quarter performances in Indy. He has five touchdowns, but two interceptions, in those games and will feel some heat from a Chicago pass rush that has 21 sacks this season.
Sunday night’s weather could also play a role in this game finishing below the total. On top of the sub-zero temperatures, wind gusts are expected to reach up to 27 mph at Lambeau Field. That could shorten up the playbook for both sides.
The Under is 9-3 in the Cheeseheads' last 12 divisional games and Da Bears are 8-3 to the Under in their last 11 divisional dances. Green Bay and Chicago have also gone Under in three straight meetings.
PREDICTION: Under 45 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
By hell or high water, the Bears will try to run the ball. Running back David Montgomery will get the lion’s share of those carries, making his return to action after missing Week 10 with a concussion.
Montgomery sat out the loss to Minnesota after suffering a concussion against Tennessee in Week 9. In the three games before getting hurt against the Titans, Montgomery saw his carries climb for an average of 18 per game in that span, panning out to 195 total yards, and was targeted five times in each of those contests.
He’s averaging 76 total yards of offense per game in 2020 but will see extra love in Nagy’s playbook this Sunday night as the Bears try to take the pressure off Foles—as well as attempt to ice Rodgers.
PREDICTION: David Montgomery Over 76.5 total yards (-120)
Bears vs Packers Betting Card
- Green Bay -8.5 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
- David Montgomery Over 76.5 total yards (-120)
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