Justin Fields and the Bears make it to prime-time for the second straight week as they take on the improved defense of the New England Patriots Monday night.
It’s looking like Mac Jones will be under center for the home side, but for what projects to be the slowest game in Week 7, should bettors’ offensive expectations be scaled back significantly?
Find out in my free NFL prop picks for Monday Night Football between the Bears and Patriots.
Bears vs Patriots props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bears vs Patriots MNF props
One and done
With Fields being the least accurate passer with a clean pocket (62.4%) and only completing 34% of his passes in the red zone, Matt Eberflus will have to make things even easier for his quarterback vs. a very good New England defense. That could mean getting his running backs involved in the passing game.
David Montgomery only saw one target in last week’s game but took it for 12 yards. He has caught all five of his targets over his last two games and out-snapped Khalil Herbert 56-16 last week.
Montgomery also played 36 snaps on passing downs compared to Herbert’s nine, which is great news for bettors hitting his Over 11.5 receiving yards prop.
Game script alone is enough to bet this, but snaps and opportunity turn it into a must-bet. Outside of the Week 3 game that Mongomery left with an injury, he’s topped this total in every other contest.
David Montgomery Prop: Over 11.5 receiving yards (-108)
Keeping Kmet Under
The Patriots have been elite vs. the pass this season, sitting fourth in EPA/dropback and No.1 in success rate vs. the pass. They’re allowing the sixth-worst completion percentage against and now get to face the least accurate starting quarterback in football.
Fields is attempting just 19.17 passes per game on the season and has the worst completion percentage above expected at -10.7 points. Despite the script as 8-point dogs, this is not a good matchup for Fields and his receivers.
Cole Kmet’s 5.7 aDOT is not encouraging. With a receiving yard total of 23.5, the lightly-used tight end would likely need three grabs to top this total. He’s only seen more than three targets once all season.
With an inaccurate QB, a projected slow pace of play, and the lowest average depth of target on the team, I’m betting Kmet goes Under his receiving total even in a game where the Bears will need to play catch-up.
Cole Kmet Prop: Under 23.5 receiving yards (-114)
Nothing easy
Have you seen the Bears’ red zone offense this season? They're averaging 2.5 RZ scoring chances per game (27th) and are scoring a touchdown at 46.67% — good for fifth-worst in football. Do you know who is even worse? The Patriots, at 45%.
This isn’t Denver-level bad, but when we have two of the worst RZ scoring offenses in a game with a 40-point total, I’m not expecting fireworks inside the 20-yard line.
Making it even worse for the Chicago offense is that over the last three games, New England has got its stuff together inside the 20 and is allowing a TD at just 44% of its opponent’s RZ chances. That stretch includes the Lions and Browns — both Top 7 offenses in EPA/play.
Fields is completing just 36.4% of his passes in the red zone, and the Bears have a team total listed below 14. Their probability to score more than one TD is well below 50 percent.
It might be juicy, but with a sluggish pace of play expected, Mac Jones’ likely rust, and both offenses showing skills at stalling inside the 20, I’m happy to lay -145 for Under 4.5 total touchdowns here.
Score Prop: Under 4.5 total touchdowns (-145 at bet365)
