If Week 9’s Monday Night Football matchup is going to live up to the rest of this wild and wacky week, then NFL bettors had better buckle in and have the Pepto/bourbon close at hand when the Chicago Bears visit the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Oddsmakers have Pittsburgh installed as a 7-point home favorite but as we’ve seen this past Sunday, point spreads haven’t mattered much in Week 9. If you’re backing on the side or the total, thankfully fun-loving bookies have a butt-ton of Monday Night Football prop bets to choose from.
These are our favorite NFL prop betting picks for Bears at Steelers on November 8.
Bears vs Steelers prop picks
- Pat Freiermuth Under 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Justin Fields Over 36.5 rushing yards (-110)
- First-quarter Under 7.5 (-150)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for MNF, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Monday Night rookie rush: Najee Harris to record 2+ touchdowns BOOSTED to +450 at DraftKings. Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Bears vs Steelers MNF props
Tight (end) squeeze
Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (had to copy and paste that last name) has stepped up with No. 1 tight end Eric Ebron struggling and will be the starter in Week 9 with Ebron out of action with a hamstring injury.
The 6-foot-5 rookie out of Penn State has been targeted a total of 14 times the past two games, reeling in 11 of those throws for 102 yards and a touchdown. He enters Week 9’s matchup with Chicago as the fantasy sleeper sent to save all those trailing in their weekly matchup heading into the Monday nighter.
Too bad no team locks down tight ends better than Da Bears. On the year, Chicago has allowed a grand total of just 225 yards to TEs and a single score through eight games. The Bears give up just five yards per target to TEs (2nd lowest) and have limited the position to less than 10 yards over their last three outings.
Freiermuth will have a tough time replicating his recent success versus Chicago’s stop unit and the rookie could be a bit blinded by the Monday night lights in Week 9.
PICK: Pat Freiermuth Under 35.5 yards receiving (best odds: -115 at bet365)
Justin-credible
Want to put some extra pep in your step? Line up across from the Steelers’ vaunted pass rush.
Chicago’s first-year passer Justin Fields will feel the heat early and often on Monday night, taking on a Pittsburgh defense that ranks second in pressure rate (28.6%) and QB hurries (15.2%). Fields has been sacked a total of 12 times the past three weeks (26 sacks on the season) and has felt pressure on more than a quarter of his dropbacks this season.
The fleet-footed Ohio State product is coming off his biggest rushing performance of his young career, scrambling for 103 yards on 10 attempts in the loss to San Francisco in Week 8. Fields has been running much more the past three games, carrying the ball 24 times for a total of 184 yards — an average of almost eight yards per run.
His Over/Under on rushing yards for Monday Night Football is a modest 36.5 yards at FanDuel — a total he’s surpassed in each of his last three contests. If T.J. Watt gets loose, Fields could eclipse that number in one go as he runs for his life on primetime TV.
PICK: Justin Fields Over 36.5 rushing yards (best odds: -110 at FanDuel)
Cold open
If you can’t tune into the start of Monday Night Football, don’t sweat it. You won’t miss much.
The Bears and Steelers rank among the worst first-quarter offenses in the NFL, with Pittsburgh averaging a mere two points per opening frame and Chicago — a notoriously slow starter for years — putting up just 3.4 1Q points per outing in 2021.
In fact, the Steelers and Bears boast first-quarter EPA per play of -0.161 (34.3% success rate) and -0.009 (43.3% success rate) respectively through nine weeks of play. They also rank 26th (Chicago) and 27th (Pittsburgh) in first-quarter offense DVOA at Football Outsiders.
So, what do all those mumbo-jumbo metrics mean to NFL bettors? It means we’re going below the first-quarter total of 7.5 (Under -150) at FanDuel sportsbooks. Pittsburgh has scored just two 1Q touchdowns on the year and Chicago has found paydirt in the first 15 minutes a mere three times.
PICK: First quarter Under 7.5 (best odds: -150 at FanDuel)
