Early Bears vs Vikings Predictions, Picks, and Odds for MNF Week 15

We get a double dose on Monday Night Football in Week 15, one of which is an NFC North matchup between the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings.

Minnesota is one of the biggest surprises of the 2024 season and is pushing toward the postseason, trying to catch Detroit in the division or at least secure the top wild-card spot. Chicago, on the other hand, is likely looking for vacation spots for January 6.

I break down the opening odds and initial market moves, giving my early Bears vs. Vikings predictions and NFL picks for December 16.

Bears vs Vikings predictions

Early spread lean
Minnesota -7 (-102 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Minnesota Vikings opened as 6.5-point home favorites and this spread has jumped to a touchdown at some books, as of Monday morning. This line may not be done moving.

Minnesota didn’t roll out the welcome mat for former QB Kirk Cousins in Week 14. Instead, it blasted Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons with a 21-0 tally in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s game, winning 42-21 as 6-point home chalk.

Now, bookies have Minnesota laying a little more against a team with far less to play for than the Falcons. The Chicago Bears were hoping for a stronger showing in the wake of firing head coach Matt Eberflus but got trucked by the San Francisco 49ers. 

The Bears suffered their seventh straight loss and now play their third straight road game with their playoff hopes all but toast. Chicago did give the Vikings a fight in Week 12, losing 30-27 in overtime at home, but it’s tough to expect the same effort in Week 15.

The Bears' defense was once the backbone of this team, ranking No. 3 in EPA allowed per play in the opening six weeks. Since then, Chicago is winless and that advanced measurement has slid all the way to 29th.

The Vikings have been one of the better two-way teams this season but even with the defense losing some traction in the second half of the schedule, Minnesota’s offense has shouldered the load. The Vikes have won six straight and rank among the more efficient attacks in that span, boasting the sixth-highest success rate per play since Week 9.

If you can get Minnesota -6.5, grab it. I don’t hate the touchdown spread either, knowing that this line could continue to climb over the key number to Vikings -7.5 later in the week.

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Early Over/Under lean
Over 44.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

This total opened as short as 42.5 and climbed quickly to 44.5 points in the first 12 hours of action, pushing through the key numbers of 43 and 44. 

As mentioned, the Vikings offense continues to move the chains and sees a significant spike when playing at home, averaging close to 29 points per contest. Minny put up more than 450 total yards of offense in the last win over Chicago, with 328 yards through the air.

The Bears offense looked terrible in the opening half versus the Niners but did get the ball moving in the second half. Chicago amassed just shy of 400 total yards in the last matchup with Minnesota, the bulk of which came from rookie QB Caleb Williams’ arm.

Given the bigger spread, the Bears will be playing from behind and passing a lot. The Vikings' defense has also dropped off its crazy pace in the opening six weeks of football. Minnesota has seen an even steeper decline in the past three games, rated 21st in EPA allowed per play and 26th in opponent success rate per snap since Week 12.

I think we’ll see some points in this game and lean toward the Over.

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