The Cincinnati Bengals learned what life without QB Joe Burrow is like last week in their loss to the New York Giants. This week, they face a Miami Dolphins team who is in the thick of a playoff race and has no problem starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick if Tua Tagovailoa has to sit for a second week.
The real embarrassing part for the Bengals is that NFL betting odds have them as 11.5-point underdogs against a possibly Fitzpatrick-led team with a total of just 42 points. A Cincinnati team total of 14.5 points is J-E-T-S territory.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Bengals vs. Dolphins for Sunday, December 6 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
Weather
Hard Rock Stadium will be quite nice Sunday, with a temperature of 81, partly cloudy skies, no rain and a 4 mph wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bengals: Joe Burrow QB (Out), Joe Mixon RB (Out), Tony Brown DB (Out), B.J. Finney C (Out).
Dolphins: Salvon Ahmed RB (Out), DeAndre Washington RB (Out), Matt Breida RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games at home versus teams with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Dolphins.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Dolphins have covered in six of their last seven games, including a 20-3 win as a 7.5-point favorite against the Jets last week. In Week 13, the 7-4 Dolphins will face a Cincinnati team that has nothing to play for and managed just 17 points in Week 12—which included a kickoff return TD.
At 11.5-point favorites and unsure of who their starting QB will be, taking the Dolphins isn’t for the weak at heart. One thing the Fins have going for them, however, is their defense, which is allowing just 18.7 points per game on the season—second in the NFL behind the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Miami could cover this game scoring just 21 points, as the Brandon Allen-led Bengals gained a pathetic 155 yards (3.4 yards per play) last week against the G-men. Allen had a QBR of 11 in that game, which was 46 points lower than Carson Wentz's effort on Monday Night Football.
PREDICTION: Miami -11.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Trusting this Bengals offense with an Over takes some real cojones. For starters, they ran just 46 plays last week, down from their season mark of 68.5. Also, their 3.4 yards per play was not much better than the Broncos’ mark of 2.7 in their QB-less game last Sunday.
Secondly, the Bengals had the ball for just 22 minutes against New York’s No. 20 DVOA defense, per Football Outsiders, and made only one trip into the Giants’ red zone.
If the Miami offense gets up big early, they are not the type of team to run up the score with an uptempo offense as they only run 60.4 plays per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the league.
The Under is 6-1 in Miami’s last seven as a favorite and both teams are a combined 1-4-1 O/U in their last three games.
PREDICTION: Under 42 (-110)
Team Total Pick
Last week, the Bengals’ team total was 17.5 and they hit the Under—despite 10 points in the first half. This week, they are staring down an incredibly low number of 14.5. That number is trending to 13.5 early in the week as the word is out on this offense: stinky.
WR A.J. Green has checked out (zero catches on three targets last week), Tyler Boyd turned six targets into just 15 yards and no receiver topped 45 yards against the Giants’ 25th-ranked pass defense last Sunday.
If Cincy trails early and has to abandon the run, they will be playing right into the Miami defense’s strength. The Dolphins own a Top-10 DVOA pass defense that is holding opposing QBs to the third-lowest QB rating on the year.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati team total Under 14.5 (-120)
Bengals vs Dolphins Betting Card
- Miami -11.5 (-110)
- Under 42 (-110)
- Cincinnati team total Under 14.5 (-120)
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