Bengals vs Falcons Preseason Picks and Predictions: Bengals Bungle Another One

The Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons will continue their respective preseason schedules when they meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Friday night.

The Falcons will run out their starters on both sides of the ball in their second warm-up tilt Friday night vs. the Bengals. But with the spread sitting at -6.5 in favor of the home side, should preseason bettors be hitching their proverbial betting wagon to Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning and take the points with Cincinnati in the NFL odds?

Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Bengals vs. Falcons on Friday, August 18.

Bengals vs Falcons odds

Bengals vs Falcons predictions

Last week, Green Bay’s offense put up 427 yards vs the Bengals, and fifth-round rookie Sean Clifford went 20 of 26 for 208 yards with four passes of 20-plus yards. Now Cincy's defense will be playing its starters for just a single series vs. a heavy dose of starter Desmond Ridder and backup Taylor Heinicke on Friday night, as the Falcons will be running out starters on both sides of the ball.

"I'd love to get hit once or twice in that game just to shake some of the rust off"

The #Falcons starters on BOTH sides of the ball are excited for their first preseason action on Friday night.

Dispatch from Tuesday morning's practice for @11AliveNews ?? pic.twitter.com/vMvC6H8tf6

— Reggie Chatman Jr. (@ReggieChatman) August 15, 2023

This line opened at Atlanta -5 earlier in the week thanks to the poor performance of the Bengals offense vs. the Packers. Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning (Friday’s starter) were both awful, as 12 of the team’s 19 points came on a pick-six and two field goals. Combined, the duo went 25 of 45 for 208 yards and two picks. They likely won’t be getting any help either on Friday, as the Bengals have not committed to playing their offensive starters in the second warm-up game.

It’s a big spread, but with Browning starting vs. Ridder, the Falcons could jump out to a decent lead early and not look back as the home side’s defensive starters are also ready to roll. 

The Atlanta defense held Mike White and Skylar Thompson to just three points, 3-for-12 on third and fourth downs, and 0-for-3 in the red zone while generating four turnovers last week. 

It’s the third-longest spread of the Week 2 preseason slate, but the personnel difference is warranted and the QB rotation is massively in favor of the home team.

As always, shop around, as Pinnacle is at -6 at the time of writing.

My best bet: Falcons -6 (-115 at Pinnacle)

Bengals vs Falcons spread and Over/Under analysis

The Falcons took a 19-3 low-scoring victory in their preseason opener vs. the Dolphins as No. 3 Logan Woodside took every snap under center. Things will look different for the offense Friday night as Desmond Ridder is expected to start and Taylor Heinicke will relieve him. Atlanta will see starters on both sides of the ball (Bijian Robinson’s status for Friday is still unconfirmed) which is why the spread moved from -5.5 to a high as 7.0 before settling back at 6.5 as of Thursday.

It could be another poor performance from the Cincinnati defense, which gave up 21 first downs and 427 yards to the Packers last week. The word is that the Bengals’ defensive starters will see the first series of the game, but that will likely be it. 

The Bengals lost three starters in the secondary this summer, including both safeties. It’s not a deep roster position, and the Packers finished the 36-19 win with five passes of 20-plus yards and six rushes of 10-plus yards. 

The Falcons’ offense managed just 53 plays in its opener while the defense and special teams each had a TD. However, things will be different Friday with the No. 1s and No. 2s getting more snaps. The Atlanta defense held a pair of starting QBs in Skylar Thompson and Mike White to just three points thanks in part to four turnovers. The defense will be even better on Friday as the starters didn’t see snaps last week.

With Joe Burrow resting and recovering until Week 1, the Cincy offense will be led by Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning, who went a combined 25 of 45 for 208 yards and zero scores last week. Browning is slated to play the first half while Siemian and even Reid Sinnett could get the second-half work. 

The Atlanta offense will be in better hands on Friday and faces a defense that might only play its starters for just one series and got embarrassed last week vs. a rookie QB. The total has been between 37.5 and 38.5, but it could be one-sided scoring in this one.

I like the Atlanta offense to win handily in the first half with Browning getting the start for the Bengals, and I’d take the Falcons 1H spread at -6 or better. But considering what Green Bay did to this Cincinnati defense last week (6.9 yards per play to 4.3), I’m laying the points with the Atlanta starters on the full game with no 1H markets available at the time of writing. 

Bengals vs Falcons betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Falcons.

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