The NFL schedule will be one-third of the way complete when Week 6 kicks off.
That’s more than enough info for oddsmakers to tighten the NFL odds another notch, squeezing out any value in one of the most efficient markets in sports betting.
To battle the bookies, football bettors need to ensure the best number for their weekly NFL picks and predictions. Sometimes, that number is the opening line on Sunday night and sometimes it shows up later in the week.
I run down the NFL Week 6 odds and circle the best spreads and totals to bet now and which one could be more beneficial if you bet later.
Week 6 bet now, bet later picks
- Jaguars at Bears (-1.5): Bet Now
- Commanders at Ravens (-6.5): Bet Later
- Bengals at Giants (Over 47.5): Bet Now
- Chargers at Broncos (Under 37): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears (-1.5): Bet Now
OK, let’s not get too crazy on the Chicago Bears. A one-sided win over the pitiful Panthers isn’t exactly a "king-making" victory.
However, we did see Chicago play its best two-way game of the year, with its disruptive defense making game-changing plays and the offense pouring it on for 424 yards and 36 points.
Over the past three weeks, the Bears have stacked 1,083 yards of offense against Carolina, Los Angeles, and Indianapolis. All those gains didn’t quite translate into points until this weekend, but it does make Chicago the No. 12 attack in EPA per play in that span.
Week 6 sends another dreadful defense their way, with the Jacksonville Jaguars ranked 31st in EPA allowed per play on the season. The Jaguars did everything they could to blow their first win of the season this past Sunday, allowing 447 yards to the Colts before hanging on for a 37-34 victory.
The opening odds have Chicago as low as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite in London but some books are already up to -2.5. Considering the Bears' and Caleb Williams' public appeal, this line could find a field goal very soon. Bet the Bears now.
Best odds to bet Bears -1.5 right now
Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5): Bet Later
It’s the Beltway Bowl!
This non-conference clash only comes around every four years and the Washington Cammanders franchise has never been hotter heading into this DMV showcase. The Commanders are 4-1 SU and ATS with the play of rookie QB Jayden Daniels making them darlings of the betting public.
Washington has hung 114 points on the scoreboard the past three weeks but meets its toughest test yet. The Baltimore Ravens can not only stand toe-to-toe with the Commies on offense, but the defense will be tightening the bolts after letting Cincinnati scorch it in a close OT win in Week 5.
Books opened with the Ravens as high as 7-point home chalk but we’re seeing this down to -6.5 with cheaper juice on the home fave. This line could slip to the key number of -6 with public play on Washington incoming.
If you’re not jumping on the Commanders bandwagon in Week 6, wait and get Baltimore -6.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (Over 47.5): Bet Now
Let’s play a game: Which QB ranks Top 10 in CPOE and EPA per dropback over the past three weeks after sitting Bottom 10 in those same advanced stats through the first two weeks?
Answer: Daniel Jones.
I don’t know what got into the New York Giants’ much-maligned quarterback, but Jones has been a man possessed the past three games. His completion percentage, air yards, and composure in the pocket have been elite.
It’s lifted New York to No. 8 in EPA per dropback and what’s more impressive is just how easy Jones and the offense moved the ball against Seattle’s defense in Week 5 despite not having top WR Malik Nabers in action. The rookie sensation should be back for this non-conference clash with Cincinnati.
The Cincinnati Bengals are in panic mode after letting an overtime game slip away in Week 5. Cincinnati sliced up a very strong Ravens defense for 38 points on 442 yards and has now put up a total of 105 points in the past three games — all clearing their respective Overs. The Bengals sit No. 3 in EPA per play entering this trip to East Rutherford.
This Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football opened as low as 47.5 points but some shops are already at 49.5 in the hour since posting. Grab the shortest total you can because this baby is going to 50.
Best odds to bet Over 47.5 right now
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (Under 37): Bet Later
This AFC West war opened with a total as high as 37.5 and dropped to 36.5 before coming back to 37 points on Sunday night. I’m wondering if this number does creep back to that original spot or even hit 38 O/U later this week.
The Denver Broncos are coming off a 34-point performance in the win over Las Vegas in Week 5, which looks good on the surface and could push this number upward. Denver was outgained and benefitted from three Raiders turnovers, one of which was returned 100 yards for a touchdown.
The Los Angeles Chargers enjoyed a bye in Week 5, which gave their many injuries time to heal. The attention will be on QB Justin Hebert and his ankle, but the Bolts defense should be back in working order in Week 6. Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and Ja'Sir Taylor all missed Week 4’s loss to Kansas City, in which L.A. still held the Chiefs to 17 points.
This stop unit is No. 2 in EPA allowed per play (with Week 5 prime-time games still to play) while the Broncos are right behind L.A. in that metric at No. 3.
Offensively, the Chargers’ run-heavy scheme is grinding out yardage while eating up time of possession. Los Angeles runs at the fifth-highest rate and plays one of the slowest paces, sitting 31st in plays per game and fifth-lowest rate of no-huddle.
Sub-40 totals have gone 4-8 Over/Under so far in 2024 (67% Unders) and this could be a low-scoring slugfest. See if this total ticks up later before coming back on the Under.
Not intended for use in MA.
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