Week 4 saw another positive outcome, and while it wasn't exactly a flashy home run of a week, we're still moving the chains.
As long as there's forward progress, no matter how incremental, I won't complain — and I'm adopting that strategy to kick off my best Week 5 player props.
My TNF prop has us hitting the weekend running, and the rest of my best NFL picks are backing a veteran RB to continue his rebound from an ugly start to the season, along with an upstart QB shredding a bad pass defense, a "King" to continue his reign of dominance, and a prop pick for Monday Night Football.
Latest NFL prop picks
Henry long rush o16.5 yards
(-110 at BetMGM)
Hunt o35.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Love o258.5 pass yards
(-114 at FanDuel)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 5
Derrick Henry Longest Rush Over 16.5 yards
It's time to pick on another bad run defense: The Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards (145.5 per game) and sit 31st in run-stop win rate, despite having yet to face a truly scary running back.
Well, hide yo' kids and hide yo' DBs, cause Derrick Henry is coming to town... and let me tell you, there's still nobody scarier than the King.
After a dud in his Baltimore Ravens debut in Week 1, all Henry has done is erupt for 144.7 yards per game (on 6.5 yards per carry) over the last three weeks, with an NFL-leading seven runs of 20+ yards.
Henry also is second in the NFL in yards after contact, third in missed tackles forced (17), and, per The Athletic, is seeing his highest number of yards before contact in his career.
Making things worse for the Bengals is that the defensive line is decimated by injury. Star DE Trey Hendrickson is trending towards not playing due to a neck stinger and both starting DTs (Sheldon Rankins and B.J. Hill) are questionable after not playing last week — the key to stopping Henry is by getting to him in the backfield and not letting him hit the line of scrimmage with momentum... but trotting out several reserve linemen means he should get into the second-level of the Cincy defense.
Henry's rushing attempts total (18.5) suggests oddsmakers expect 18-20 carries for him on Sunday. With that many opportunities against a broken (literally and figuratively) Bengals run defense, I like King Henry's chances at breaking at least one chunk run on Sunday.
Pick made on 10-4
Kareem Hunt Over 35.5 rush yards
Injuries have decimated the Kansas City Chiefs offense, but one emerging storyline is the revival of Kareem Hunt's odds from an afterthought to something relevant.
He was a free agent less than three weeks ago, but after signing to the KC practice squad, the former Chiefs' star had a strong showing last week, getting a team-high 14 carries, which he converted into 69 yards in a 17-10 win over the Chargers.
Facing the New Orleans Saints this week on Monday Night Football, I love his chances to top his rushing total again, which sits at a modest 35.5 yards. Hunt has little competition considering Carson Steele was quickly benched after fumbling for the second time in three games (his 3.8 ypc wasn't exactly boosting his resume to play more), and Samaje Perine is almost exclusively the third-down back.
As you can see in the above image (courtesy of Pro Football Focus), Hunt dominated early downs and led the RB room in snaps. He could see even more work Monday night as his fitness improves, as I don't think Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be much of a factor (even if he does make his season debut).
Then there's the Saints... which might be a shoddy run defense? They gave up just 100 total rushing yards to RBs through the first two games, but both were blowouts where New Orleans went up big early and forced their opponents to abandon the run. The last two games, however, were competitive — and saw opposing RBs total 235 yards on a whopping 7.3 yards per carry.
Industry projections sit around 46 yards for Hunt and range as high as 51. With Kansas City's offensive line eighth in the league in run-block win rate and the defense almost certainly keeping this game close, I don't see how Hunt doesn't hit 40 yards with double-digit carries (especially if he gets 14-15 again).
Pick made on 10-4
Jordan Love Over 258.5 pass yards
The Los Angeles Rams defense is bad in all facets but I'm focusing on their pass defense this week, which has allowed the worst yards/completion (12.6) and air yards/attempt (10.3) in the league and will try to stop Jordan Love, who is fourth among all quarterbacks in average depth of target.
After missing Weeks 2-3, the Green Bay Packers QB returned last Sunday, struggling in the first half but finding his groove to finish with 389 yards on the day — after logging 260 against the Eagles in Week 1.
Love & Co. also get a schematic boost for this matchup: Per Pro Football Focus, the Rams run zone at the eighth-highest rate in the league... but are 28th or worse in defensive success rate, yards per reception, and yards allowed per coverage snap while in zone. Green Bay also excels against zone coverages, with the wide receiver trio of Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs all in the Top 25 of WR in yards/catch vs. zone — and all are in the Top 30 in yards per route run vs. zone.
The biggest threat to this total is the Packers opening a massive lead and going run-heavy, but their defense is also bad enough that this could stay competitive, so it will be all systems should go for all four quarters.
Industry projections range as high as 287 for Love on Sunday, with an average of 266, giving us some wiggle room against this number.
Pick made on 10-4
D'Andre Swift Over 49.5 rush yards
Like everyone else in the betting (and fantasy football) world, I had pronounced D'Andre Swift washed last week and was ready to anoint Roschon Johnson as the new king of the Chicago Bears backfield.
Then Chicago went out last week and gave Swift a season-high 16 carries that he turned into 93 rushing yards (with 7/72 in the air to boot).
Despite how badly he struggled through the first three weeks, he's had double-digit carries in every game and two-thirds of all Chicago RB rush attempts this season. Now coming off an encouraging performance, I'm expecting a similar workload again — which should result in a solid day against a suspect Carolina Panthers run defense.
Carolina has given up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (148.8) and its 4.6 yards per run is the 10th-worst in the league. The Panthers also sit 29th in run-stop win rate — and these numbers are skewed by only allowing 55 rush yards to Las Vegas, which has a comically awful run game.
Against three actual NFL offenses, they've allowed 180 rush yards a game. Do I think Swift will hit that? No, of course not, but with another 15 carries, I see no reason why he won't steamroll past 50 rush yards... especially with industry projections averaging about 63 yards for him on Sunday.
Pick made on 10-3
Baker Mayfield Over 9.5 rush yards
Baker Mayfield ain't exactly a burner, but he's never been afraid to tuck it and run — and I love his chances to go Over a modest rushing total tonight against the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta has allowed the most rushing yards to QBs this season (41 per game) and the most QB runs (36). Those numbers are a little inflated by facing dual-threat QBs in Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts, Mayfield has run it at least three times in three of his first four games, topping this total in each contest.
His one exception was against the pressure-heavy Denver Broncos, but the Falcons aren't big on pressuring the QB, entering Week 5 with the seventh-lowest QB pressure rate and the ninth-lowest blitz rate.
Industry projections put Mayfield at about 13 rushing yards for this game, and with almost every book sitting at 10.5, I'll happily take an extra yard with FanDuel still offering this at 9.5.
Pick made on 10-3
NFL Week 5 prop betting card
- Baker Mayfield Over 9.5 rush yards (-113)
- D'Andre Swift Over 49.5 rush yards (-120)
- Jordan Love Over 258.5 pass yards (-114)
- Kareem Hunt Over 35.5 rush yards (-110)
- Derrick Henry Longest Rush Over 16.5 yards (-110)
Last week: 3-2, +0.52 units
Season: 9-11, -2.46 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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