Early Bengals vs Ravens Predictions, Picks, and Odds for TNF Week 10

NFL Week 10 betting starts with a bang when the Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.

Baltimore can put a nail in the coffin of its AFC North rivals, but my early Bengals vs. Ravens predictions expect Cincy won't go down without a fight.

Read why below in my NFL picks for November 7.

Bengals vs Ravens predictions

Early spread lean
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals have won three of their last four contests, but those victories came against some broken teams, taking down the Giants, Browns, and Raiders. Cincinnati’s lone loss in that stretch came via a 37-17 beatdown by the Eagles, so you can see why oddsmakers are questioning the validity of the Bengals’ recent success.

The Cincinnati defense is the reason why books opened the Baltimore Ravens as 6.5-point home favorites for Thursday Night Football. The Bengals rank near the bottom of the NFL in most advanced defensive metrics and allowed the Ravens to score 38 points in regulation when these rivals clashed in Ohio back in Week 5.

Baltimore is among the most explosive attacks in the land, sitting No. 1 in DVOA, No. 2 in EPA per play, and No. 2 in success rate per snap. The Ravens have been running opponents off the field since Week 3, going 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread in that stretch.

That said, this is a short week divisional game, and Cincinnati knows a loss in Week 10 really puts it behind the eight ball in terms of the AFC pecking order.

Looking at past matchups between the Ravens and Bengals, we’ve seen some bigger spreads, but only because either Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson was injured.

At Bengals +6.5, I’m hesitant to write off Cincinnati, and early movement has already seen this line drop to Baltimore -6 at some shops.

Early Over/Under lean
Over 52.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

My analysis

This total opened as low as 51.5 points on Sunday night and took instant Over action, driving the number to 52.5 O/U. As of Monday morning, that is the market consensus, and deservedly so.

When these AFC North teams clashed back in Week 5, they combined for more than 70 points in regulation and blew the closing total of 48.5 points out of the water. The Ravens and Bengals tallied a collective 962 yards of offense and finished 8-for-9 in the red zone.

This Thursday Night Football total opened just a field goal higher despite both offenses clicking at a high level.

The Bengals just scored 41 points against the Raiders, bumping them to seventh in EPA per play and into the Top 10 in Offensive DVOA. Cincinnati’s passing game is a Top 3 air attack and faces a Ravens defense that's fallen far from the standards of 2023.

Baltimore is 29th in EPA allowed per dropback and 23rd in opponent success rate per pass, watching rival QBs own an average QB rating of 100.7 this season. Burrow blasted Baltimore for just shy of 400 passing yards and five touchdown passes in Week 5.

Over 51.5 was one of my first bets of Week 10 when the odds opened, and even with the jump to 52.5 O/U, I think the Over has legs on any total of 53.5 or shorter. 

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