There are only three games left in the NFL season (no, the Pro Bowl doesn't count), with two of them coming this Sunday as the Commanders/Eagles battle for the NFC crown and the latest saga in the Bills/Chiefs rivalry will determine the AFC Champion.
This whittles down the options for choosing NFL player props, but I've found four plays — one from each team — that I love, with a little mix of everything: Star player Unders, backups to deliver, alternative ways to back a superstar, and a rookie to shine.
Here are my NFL picks and favorite props for the AFC and NFC Championship.
NFL Conference Championship prop picks
Ekeler o18.5 rush yards (-114)
Barkley long rush o23.5 yards (-115)
Allen u48.5 rush yards (-110)
Worthy o48.5 rec yards (-115)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for both Conference Championship games
Austin Ekeler Over 18.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive line is quite imposing, finishing in the Top 10 in rushing yards allowed, but it's shown some cracks in the armor down the stretch, giving up 100+ yards in five straight games and six of its last seven.
That provides some optimism that the Washington Commanders, which is not a great traditional rushing team (aka using its running backs), can have some sort of offensive balance in the NFC title game. That has me looking at veteran RB Austin Ekeler to surpass a low rushing total.
Ekeler is the clear No. 2 back to Brian Robinson Jr. but plays between 40-50% of the snaps each week and has topped this number in six of his last eight games... including both postseason matchups.
Washington will need ball possession to slow down the Eagles offense, which means plenty of ground-and-pound. Projections for Ekeler range as high as 30 yards with the average being about 26 yards — giving a little extra confidence that he can hit 20 yards (and if you want to sprinkle on an alt-total of 25+, that's priced around +155).
Pick made on 1-23
Saquon Barkley longest rush Over 23.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
Saquon Barkley has somehow found another gear at the end of the season, rushing for 150+ yards in three of his last four games after recording 205 yards last week against the Rams.
However, his rushing total is currently at ***checks notes*** 129.5 rushing yards.
ONE-HUNDRED. AND TWENTY-NINE. POINT. FIVE.
It's a number he definitely can top (he's done so eight times this season), but I fundamentally can't back a number that ludicrous, so I'm looking at his longest rush prop instead, which has moved up to 23.5 already... but is still very much live.
Yes, Saquon's longest rush was in my weekly props for last week, mainly because he's first in average yards before contact and the Rams were 28th in yards allowed before contact.
Well, guess what? The Commanders defense ranks dead last.
Giving Barkley room to hit the hole, where his power/speed/elusiveness combo is unrivaled in the league, is again begging him to hit a home run (or two). He rushed for 146 and 150 yards in the first two matchups against Washington this season, with a long run of 39 yards and 68 yards in those games.
Add in that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is struggling and dealing with a knee injury — plus the defense has a number of key injuries — and Barkley should be force-fed the ball for all four quarters... which makes it inevitable that he'll break a big run Sunday afternoon.
Want to get spicy? A long run of 30+ yards is +195 and 40+ is +375... just sayin'.
Pick made on 1-23
Josh Allen Under 48.5 rush yards (-110 at DraftKings)
The Buffalo Bills rushing attack has become the featured part of the offense down the stretch — but I'm fading star QB Josh Allen's odds to top his rushing total.
Why? Because the Bills are effectively running with their running backs.
Buffalo has rumbled for 147+ yards on the ground in five of its last seven games meaningful games (excluding Week 18 when everyone was benched), with Allen averaging 7.6 rushes and 40.1 yards per game in that span — topping this number just twice.
Meanwhile, the Bills ran 34+ times five times in that stretch (after doing so just once in their first 11 games), with the RB trio of James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
After seeing the Ravens pick apart Buffalo's defense in the second half, head coach Sean McDermott will want to control the ball to keep the Kansas City Chiefs offense off the field. I'm expecting him to establish the run early and often — which should also keep Allen out of third-and-long vs. a ferocious Chiefs pass rush, which also has the highest potential for him to scramble for a big chunk run.
Allen will run Sunday evening; he went for 55 yards in handing the Chiefs their only loss so far this season, but I'm also expecting K.C. to emphasize not letting Allen's legs beat them this time. Hitting 50 yards — a feat he's done just five times all season — seems like a daunting task.
Projections for the Bills star range as low as 32 yards and average around 38 for the AFC title game, giving a full 10 yards of buffer on what is his highest total of the season.
Pick made on 1-23
Xavier Worthy Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Xavier Worthy has emerged in the second half of the season, topping 40 yards in each of his last eight games (54.6 ypg average) as he has evolved into a legitimate No. 2 passing option outside of Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs rookie wideout has seen almost three additional targets per game in the second half, with a big factor being that he went from being a guy that just went downfield on deep shots (10 deep targets and an aDOT of 11.9 through his first 10 games) to someone far more involved in the short/intermediate routes (seven deep targets and an aDOT of 6.9).
Worthy's speed makes him a threat to turn any play into a big gain. Head coach Andy Reid has targeted him a lot with screen passes and lined him up in the slot to get open on crossing routes — which is effective vs. a Bills defense that allows explosive pass plays on nearly 40% of crossing routes faced (per Pro Football Focus).
Worthy went for 61 yards against Buffalo earlier this year, and projections range as high as 60 yards for him in Sunday's rematch, averaging around 56 yards. With his speed, increased usage, and potential to a chunk (or all) of this total on one play, I'm backing the rookie to shine in the AFC Championship.
Pick made on 1-23
Conference Championship prop betting card
- Austin Ekeler Over 18.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Saquon Barkley longest rush Over 23.5 yards (-115)
- Josh Allen Under 48.5 rush yards (-110)
- Xavier Worthy Over 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
Not intended for use in MA.
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