The wait is over! NFL action is finally back this week, with action on Thursday, Friday (!!!), Sunday, and Monday.
It's a beautiful sight to behold, and the only thing more eye-catching is the bounty of NFL player props available to bet on this week.
I'm starting things off with a play for TNF and a bet for Friday, then fill out my card with some NFL picks from the Sunday early/mid slate. Welcome back, football friends!
Latest NFL prop picks
Love o256.5 pass yards
(-110 at bet365)
Williams o2.5 receptions
(-130 at bet365)
Walker III o66.5 rush yards
(-115 at BetMGM)
Olave o63.5 rec yards
(-104 at Caesars)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 1
Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions
I'm expecting Javonte Williams to be in for a busy Sunday... but not the way you'd think.
Denver Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix might quickly take over as the NFL check-down master, as about two-thirds of his passes last year at Oregon went under 10 yards and his aDOT was just 7.0.
Fast-forward to the NFL preseason, and Nix's aDOT was just 6.4 — putting him 83rd among all QBs, just behind noted deep throwers Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Mitch Trubisky, and Tommy DeVito. Making his NFL debut on the road at Lumen Field, I could see a conservative game plan for Nix (which would involve plenty of short throws) but also with the likelihood that Denver will be chasing this game, there should be enough passing opportunities for Williams to log these catches.
Head Coach Sean Payton has seen his offenses finish in the Top 5 in RB target share in each of the last 10 years he's run a team, including No. 1 in the NFL last year, and with leading RB receiver Samaje Perine gone, Williams should be in line for even more passing work this year.
He recorded 3+ receptions in nine of his last 11 games in 2023, averaging 3.27 catches per week in that span, and the conditions are even better for him to see targets this year.
I also love RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin 1.5 catch total, but it's heavily juiced (around -180) — if you want to get spicy though, parlaying both Broncos RBs to top their reception total comes out to around +170.
Pick made on 9-6
Kenneth Walker III Over 66.5 rush yards
The Denver Broncos run defense (if you read my colleague Jason Logan's Broncos season preview) is the weakest part of this team's stop unit, doing little in the offseason to upgrade on the only team to allow 5.0 yards/carry last season.
That's bad news for the Broncos... but great news for Seattle Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III, who could be in store for a big Sunday afternoon.
Much of the Seattle hubbub has been on new OC Ryan Grubb and a pass-happy offense, but Walker should get his chance to feast on a defense that allowed almost 140 rushing yards per game in 2023 — and the game script should help.
Seattle is currently a six-point home favorite, and with this being Denver QB Bo Nix's first career NFL game, it's likely this is a game where the Seahawks are nursing a lead in the latter stages... a.k.a. when KWIII gets to tote the rock.
Projections for Walker range as high as 76 yards for Sunday, which I think is a conservative estimate against possibly the worst rushing D in the league.
Pick made on 9-5
Chris Olave Over 63.5 receiving yards
Speaking of offensive scheme changes, the New Orleans Saints also have a new OC: Klint Kubiak, who comes from the Shanahan-Kubiak coaching tree that has a heavy emphasis on pre-snap motion, crossing routes, play action, and quick passes.
Anything to create more open-field touches for a talent like Chris Olave is music to our ears.
Yes, this scheme also asks a lot from an offensive line that isn't good, but it may not be that big a problem in Week 1 against the Panthers, who had the third-lowest pressure rate, lowest hurry rate, and fewest sacks in the NFL — despite blitzing at a near-Top 10 rate.
Carolina didn't have terrible pass defense numbers in 2023, but those stats were skewed from opponents often leading comfortably late in games, resulting in the fifth-most rushing attempts against and the fewest passing attempts against in the league.
The Panthers didn't do much to bolster the secondary but made several additions to improve the run defense — that should lead to a little more balance from opposing offenses. Add in that the pass rush will still be lacking, and more passing success in the box score should be en route.
Olave has averaged just over 80 yards per game in four career contests against the Panthers, and a four-point spread suggests this shouldn't be a blowout, meaning he should be an active participant for the majority of the game.
Industry projections settle around 72 yards on Sunday (ranging as high as 76), adding confidence he'll top a modest total of 63.5.
Pick made on 9-5
Rashee Rice longest reception Under 21.5 yards
Rashee Rice enters the year as the Kansas City Chiefs' No. 1 wide receiver, but I'm not expecting him to be much of a deep threat on Thursday night (or this season).
His 5.2-yard average depth of target (aDOT) last year put him 118th out of 120 WRs with at least 25 targets last season, and he had just six targets of 20+ air yards all year (one catch).
Rice's limited preseason action didn't show much indication that things would be different, posting a 3.76 aDOT from six targets, and with the Chiefs drafting speedster Xavier Worthy and adding Hollywood Brown (who will likely miss Week 1), I don't see head coach Andy Reid designing a lot of downfield plays for Rice.
Last year, he posted a reception of 20+ yards in just seven of 16 regular-season games, with five of those coming against defenses in the Bottom 8 in yards/completion. The Ravens had the second-lowest Y/C last year and even with several key defensive departures, the secondary should still be the strength of this defense.
Pick made on 9-4
Jordan Love Over 256.5 passing yards
After a breakout last season, Jordan Love kicks off this campaign against an Eagles team that's gotten a lot of credit for revamping its secondary... but I think there could be some struggles in Week 1.
Philly snagged two of the top CBs in the draft with its first two picks... but I don't expect them to immediately impact the league's second-worst pass-defense unit last year, making the DBs the best way to attack the Eagles.
They replaced Hassan Reddick with Michael Huff and will otherwise send out a similar lineup to the one that finished 10th in rushing yards/game last year, meaning Love & Co. will find the most success moving the ball through the air.
The Packers QB averaged 271 yards per game over the final nine regular-season contests last year, throwing for 256+ seven times. Running back Josh Jacobs will certainly need his touches but against a fearsome front seven, some of those handoffs might be converted to short passes, further helping Love's yardage cause.
This number opened at 251.5 and quickly moved to 256.5. Industry projections range as high as 266 yards for Love, which still gives us some breathing room on this total.
Pick made on 9-4
NFL Week 1 prop betting card
- Rashee Rice longest reception u21.5 yards (-115)
- Jordan Love o256.5 pass yards (-110)
- Kenneth Walker III o66.5 rush yards (-115)
- Chris Olave o63.5 receiving yards (-104)
- Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions (-130)
Last season: 44-45, -2.13 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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