We're on to Week 11, where there's been a shift in the driving force of offenses — and betting NFL player props.
Early in the season, when almost every passing attack looked out of sync (who woulda thought, with basically no preseason?) it was the running game and RB props carrying success.
Now... the running well has seemingly dried up a little, but we're seeing passing games (and wide receiver props) pick up the pace.
So I'm kicking off my favorite Week 11 NFL props with a star receiver prop for TNF and have added another red-hot WR against the league's worst pass defense and a star runner to tramble a team ready to waive the white flag.
Latest NFL prop picks
Brown o78.5 rec yards
(-115 at BetMGM)
Pickens o66.5 rec yards
(-110 at bet365)
Taylor o86.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 11
Jonathan Taylor Over 86.5 rush yards
With Anthony Richardson back under center (the latest saga in the Indianapolis Colts QB merry-go-round), the passing goes down and the running goes up.
For Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor, that's a good thing vs. the capital-b-Bad New York Jets run defense.
In the five full games with Richardson as QB, Indy attempted just under 26 passes and almost 28 rushes per game. With Flacco under center, it was 35 passes and 24 runs per contest.
That should mean more work for Taylor, who has topped 100 yards in four of his last six games, against a Jets stop unit that has allowed 134 rushing yards per game this season (eighth-most in the league) — with that number leaping to 149 ypg over the last five weeks.
Taylor is seventh in the league in runs of 10+ yards, fifth in designed runs of 15+ yards, and 20th in yards after contact — despite missing three games. The Jets are second in missed tackles (120) and third in missed-tackle rate, so it's also possible Taylor can bust off a big run or two against a sloppy second level.
Pick made on 11-14
George Pickens Over 66.5 receiving yards
It's all systems go for No. 1 receivers vs. the Baltimore Ravens right now, which means George Pickens is primed for another big game this Sunday.
I mean, have you seen how badly they're getting shredded right now?
Ja'Marr Chase dropped 264 on them last week (and 193 yards a month prior). Courtland Sutton had 122 two weeks ago, Cedric Tillman (and Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy) all had 79-99 yards before that. Davante Adams and Rashee Rice had consecutive 100-yard games in Weeks 1 and 2.
The Ravens are dead last in passing yards allowed, air yards allowed, and 20+ yard completions allowed, with star receivers doing most of the damage — and Pickens is as hot as any receiver.
In the three weeks since Russell Wilson took over as the Pittsburgh Steelers' QB1, Pickens has seen his catch rate go from 59.1% to 66.7%, his yards per target go from 8.3 to 13.1, and he posted yardage totals of 111, 74, and 91.
Wilson has not been shy in throwing deep balls — sitting third in completions, fifth in average depth of target, and 10th in yards on passes of 20+ air yards since Week 7 — and Pickens has been his main target.
Baltimore star safety Kyle Hamilton is also questionable as he hasn't practiced yet this week due to an ankle injury. His absence would only further deplete any resistance that did exist for slowing down the Pickens/Russ combo.
Pick made on 11-14
A.J. Brown Over 78.5 receiving yards
I feel like I'm missing something looks at A.J. Brown's odds for TNF. He's played in six games this season, averaging 92.2 yards per game and recording 84+ yards in five of them. The one exception is two weeks ago vs. the Jaguars, where he left midway through the game due to injury (and had 36 yards) — take away that game, and he's averaging more than 103 yards per game when he plays all four quarters.
So he needs just 80 yards to top his total tonight against the Commanders, who are not as good of a pass defense as the stats suggest: Four of Washington's last six games have been against:
- The worst version of Daniel Jones.
- Full rookie wall Caleb Williams.
- Andy Dalton.
- Deshaun Watson.
That quartet of arms totaled 523 pass yards, so naturally, no receivers shined. Against NFL-level passing attacks with a bona fide No. 1 receiver? Well, George Pickens of the Steelers logged 91 yards last week, Baltimore's Zay Flowers recorded 132 yards a month ago, and Ja'Marr Chase hit 100 yards in Week 3.
Brown went for 130 and 175 yards last year vs. Washington, torching Benjamin St-Juste in catching all four targets for 65 yards. He'll get to see plenty of St-Juste — one of the most targeted CBs in the NFL, who's allowing a 65% completion rate and the fifth-most coverage yards this year — or rookie Mike Sainristil, who has a 67% completion rate and has given up the 13th most yards after the catch.
This game currently has the highest total on the Week 11 odds board, and if there's going to be offense... expect one of the league's most dominant WRs to be involved.
Pick made on 11-14
NFL Week 11 prop betting card
- A.J. Brown Over 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
- George Pickens Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Jonathan Taylor Over 86.5 rush yards (-110)
Last week: 1-4, -3.17 units
Season: 22-28, -7.96 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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