NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 3: We're Not Buying this Ford Against Tennessee

Through two weeks of football action, I've noticed that most of my NFL picks have been on secondary players, rather than the stars and No. 1s on given rosters.

It's a good thing too... because the stars have been dropping like flies: We've already lost Aaron Rodgers, J.K. Dobbins, and Nick Chubb for the year, while Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, and Diontae Johnson are all also currently sidelined.

So, for my best bets based on the Week 3 odds, I bet on some high-profile quarterbacks — spitting in the face of the injury gods' apparent wrath — and a kicker for good measure.

Today, we're putting backups back into the spotlight, with a wide receiver to excel, one newly minted No. 1 to struggle... and then Zach Wilson facing Bill Belichick.

Things could get ugly (hopefully on the field and not in this column), as I go through the NFL odds and give you my favorite NFL player props for Week 3's Sunday slate.

Latest NFL prop picks

•  Wilson 2+ INT
•  Dell o36.5 rec yards
•  Ford u45.5 rush yards

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Cougar hunting

He may not have Tom Brady, nor a Super Bowl-contending roster, but Bill Belichick can still scheme a defensive game plan that gives opposing offenses fits. Despite being 0-2, the New England Patriots kept the Dolphins and Eagles' high-octane attacks in check... so what's going to happen when the Pats take on the New York Jets and struggling quarterback Zach Wilson?

I think it's going to get ugly and he's going to throw multiple interceptions.

We can all agree, that Wilson just ain't him (everyone nods furiously); after an up-and-down rookie season, followed by a disastrous sophomore campaign last year, Wilson was supposed to get a chance to sit (and learn) from Aaron Rodgers... only to get thrown into the No. 1 spot again after four plays in Week 1.

The BYU product has not looked any better in Year 3, throwing for just 140 yards in Week 1 and then getting destroyed by the Cowboys last week, when he completed just 44.4% of his passes with three interceptions as he crumbled under the relentless Dallas pressure.

And now he gets to face Bill Belichick, who has absolutely owned him in his young career. Wilson has completed just 50.9% of his passes with seven picks through four games against the Pats — including two games where he finished with 51 and 71 yards.

After throwing a bushel of INTs in Week 2, Wilson has now thrown at least one pick in four straight games (dating back to last year) and his two touchdowns on the season were both about 98.7% in part to Garrett Wilson being a superhero.

Belichick hangs his hat on taking away an offense's best weapon, so expect him to remove Wilson from the equation as much as possible (with the emergence of rookie CB Christian Gonzalez) and QB pressure is going to be a constant all year as the Jets' offensive line is arguably the worst pass-blocking unit in the league, specifically at both tackles and center.

Zach Wilson's odds to throw a pick is an astronomical -220 (only two other QBs are even at -150 this week), but I'm actually targeting his interception milestones market, and going with him to throw two interceptions, which you can grab as high as +240

Prop: Zach Wilson 2+ interceptions (+240 at Caesars)

Better than a Mac

After a slight injury concern during the week, I'm keying in on a surging Houston Texans receiver this Sunday in what should be a passing-heavy game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

No, Nico Collins, I'm not talking to you (although you're wonderful) — I'm betting on Tank Dell odds in Week 3, with a low receiving yards total of just 36.5 that he should soar past.

The rookie WR did not play much in Week 1, but with Noah Brown out, he got more run last Sunday... more than any of us expected. Dell ended up running the second-most routes among Houston WRs last week — just behind veteran Robert Woods, who shifted primarily to the slot, and more routes than the aforementioned Collins.

He the team with 10 targets and seven catches, recording 72 yards after getting 34 yards (in half the playing time) the week prior. I expect QB C.J. Stroud to build upon his NFL-leading 109 dropbacks as the Texans run game is nearly non-existent, considering their already-bad O-line is decimated by injuries, and the Houston defense will likely have trouble slowing down the Jaguars offense, so Dell & Co. could be chasing points for the majority of this game.

The Jaguars defense has been solid through two weeks but did allow two Indy pass-catchers to top this number in Week 1 and three different Chiefs players to go Over 36.5 in Week 2 — if Dell gets another snap share similar to last week, with more attention paid to Collins, Dell should be able to cruise past this number, especially when the Texans go pass crazy trying to play catch-up in the second half. 

Prop: Tank Dell Over 36.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Ford sputters

Following the horrific season-ending injury to Cleveland Browns superstar Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford became the apple of the fantasy world's eye, with people spending major FAAB dollars to add what some were calling "a potential league-winning FA add."

Ford may very well end up being a savior for many fantasy teams and should have some very good weeks... but this ain't gonna be one of them, so I'm taking an Under on Jerome Ford's odds to top 44.5 rushing yards in Week 3.

And no, this is not a bet based on the Browns bringing back Kareem Hunt — this is based on the opponent and questions surrounding Ford's overall effectiveness.

The second-year RB had a massive 69-yard run on MNF last week, but other than that run, he actually struggled: Take that run away and Ford managed just 37 yards on his other 15 carries, a 2.46 yards per carry average that is highly disappointing against a Steelers run D that was gauged by Christian McCaffrey in Week 1 and allowed 64 yards on 10 carries to Chubb before he got hurt.

Looking back to Week 1, Ford also got 15 carries against the Bengals... and managed just 36 yards when Chubb went for 106 on just three extra carries.

Yes, comparing Ford to arguably the two best RBs in the league is unfair, but I can't expect him to break a big play every week, so the fact that he failed to consistently exploit a good matchup is concerning... as is the fact 19 of his 31 runs this year went for two yards or less (the most in the league).

And we're expecting him to top 45 yards against a Tennessee Titans defense that was No. 1 against the run in 2022 and has again been stingy through two weeks, holding Jamaal Williams and Joshua Kelley — the clear No. 1s in those respective games — to 45 yards and 39 rushing yards.

I know I said this bet wasn't based on Hunt, but he's not not there... and I'm not entirely sold that Ford will get a true No. 1-type workload. Hunt is familiar with the Browns' offensive system and a more reliable pass-blocker in the backfield, plus we'll likely see Pierre Strong Jr. get a few carries too.

Prop: Jerome Ford Under 45.5 rush yards (-110 at bet365)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Kirk puts in work

The Minnesota Vikings offense has been terribly one-dimensional through two games, sitting second in the league in passing and dead-last in rushing, and I'm expecting that imbalance to continue Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, making betting on Kirk Cousins odds something I have no problem doing for Week 3.

After posting 344 and 364 passing yards through each of his first two games, Cousins' pass yards total can be found as low as 288.5, with some outlets sitting as high as 293.5. This is a number he should roll over... for a number of reasons.

Talking about unbalanced offense: To counter Cousins' 708 pass yards, Minnesota has a whopping 69 total rush yards in its first two losses. Alexander Mattison has been a disappointment, averaging 3.3 yards per carry and sporting the ninth-worst rushing yards over expected at -22 (per NFL Next Gen Stats).

His struggles prompted the Vikes to go out and add another running back on Wednesday... except they traded for Cam Akers, who is second-last among all RBs with -41 RYOE, was a healthy scratch by the Rams in Week 2, and cost all of a 2026 pick swap.

Plus, the Vikings have given up the eighth-most points, forcing the team to abandon its terrible run game and just let Cousins throw a ton.

Thankfully, the Chargers defense has been even worse, allowing the third-most points and most yards through two weeks. The secondary has been the real problem, with the team sitting last in pass yards allowed and pass defense EPA per play, and 31st in completion percentage over expected allowed and air yards per attempt against.

The Bolts' first two games saw them give up 466 yards to Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins... then let Ryan Tannehill go from looking like the worst QB in the league in Week 1 to posting ProFootballFocus' highest QB grade in Week 2.

Industry projections range as high as 320 yards and average around 297 for Cousins, with a shootout expected as this game has (easily) the highest total on the board this week. For the Vikings to keep up with Justin Herbert & Co., do you think they're going to hand the ball to Mattison and Akers... or let Cousins continue to rip it to the likes of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison?

Prop: Kirk Cousins Over 288.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

You do you, boo

To say that Justin Fields has looked broken to start the season is an understatement. Poor throws, holding the ball too long, and missing reads have been the constant with the Chicago Bears young QB — perfectly highlighted by this moment last week where he had a clean pocket and two open receivers... yet the play ended in disaster.

Cemented by the fact Fields has just five designed runs through two games (after averaging almost six designed runs per game last year), it's clear that he's failing at trying to be something he's not: a pocket passer.

I know it, you know it, and after his press conference yesterday... Fields knows it now too.

"Coaching" - Justin Fields when asked what was causing him to think too much on the field.

The QB had some interesting words at his media availability today. pic.twitter.com/ItOmb0kbzL

— Covers (@Covers) September 20, 2023

Beyond that fact that I love to see (and would like to see more of) this refreshing honesty from a pro athlete, hearing Fields say that he felt robotic and not playing like himself — and that "my goal this week is to say 'F it' and got out there and play football how I know how to play football" is music to my ears for betting the Over on his rushing yards prop.

This line opened at 58.5, then all his props were pulled Thursday evening, but it re-emerged Friday morning with some operators sitting as high as 60.5; so getting the current 54.5 at FanDuel is a no-brainer (price shopping FTW).

Fields is a dual-threat QB whose biggest threat is his ability to use his legs. He ran for 60+ yards in nine of his last 10 games in 2022 (94.9 per-game average), but has just 62 rushing yards — and just 13 total rushing attempts — in 2023, opting to stay in the pocket in the face of pressure and not scramble like he did last year.

If his comments are any indication, we should see more scrambling on Sunday (and maybe more designed rushes from offensive coordinator Luke Getsy) when Fields and a pitiful Chicago offensive line will be under plenty of pressure from a Kansas City Chiefs defense that brought the heat against the Jaguars last week following the return of star Chris Jones.

But when Jones and the Chiefs come knocking this Sunday, there will be no more standing in the pocket from Fields — he's going to "go out there and be me."

And being him means running the damn ball. 

Prop: Justin Fields Over 54.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Grupe fiasco

Is there any bigger shift than going from QBs to throw and run for a bunch of yards... to betting on a field goal prop?

Bets are bets; they all pay out the same. So I'm betting on Blake Grupe to kick, and while there's no chance of a push, I expect him to coast past his line of 1.5 made field goals on Sunday.

The New Orleans Saints kicker is 5/5 to start his NFL career, with three FGs against the Titans and two vs. the Panthers in Week 2. The Saints have been able to move the ball fairly well through two games, sitting 10th in total yards, ninth in third-down conversion percentage, and 11th in average yards per drive, but they have struggled in the Red Zone.

NOLA has made eight trips inside the opponent's 20 through two games but has just three touchdowns to show for it, with a 37.5% TD rate the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers are the Saints' mirror on defense, with the sixth-most yards allowed and sixth-longest average drive time against —  but have allowed a touchdown on just three of seven defensive stands in the red zone (ranking ninth with a 42.9% opponent TD rate), with six made field goals allowed already this season (third-most in the league).

So a competent offense that struggles to finish possessions vs. a bend-but-don't-break defense... sounds like Grupe should again get a few opportunities to put the pigskin through the uprights, and with the weather at Lambeau Field expected to be nice — temperatures around 70 degrees with not a lot of wind — I'll happily take the plus-money price on Grupe to keep salvaging stalled Saints drives.

Prop: Blake Grupe Over 1.5 made field goals (+130 at DraftKings)

NFL Week 3 prop betting card

• Zach Wilson 2+ interceptions (+240)
• Tank Dell Over 36.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Jerome Ford Under 45.5 rush yards (-110)

     - - 

• Kirk Cousins Over 288.5 passing yards (-110)
• Justin Fields Over 54.5 rushing yards (-114)
• Blake Grupe Over 1.5 made field goals (+130)

Season to date: 7-4, +2.66 units

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