NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 4: Makin' Money With Michael Thomas

It's hard out there for a running back... and maybe even harder to bet on RB NFL player props.

Between the number of injured stars and depleted offensive lines, we're left with few appealing options for backfield bets — and even fewer instances of the NFL odds offering great values in the RB market.

It's a wasteland of RB committees and game-script-dependent backs (with ugly game scripts looming this week), but I think I've found one back with Week 4 odds to bet on, but otherwise I'm sticking to the pass-catchers to keep delivering as per usual.

After targeting a trio of WR yesterday, today I've got two more wideouts (plus one RB for balance) to cash in vs. juicy matchups this week — read on to see why they're my favorite NFL picks and player props for the Week 4 Sunday slate.

Latest NFL prop picks

•  Williams o52.5 rush yards
•  Atwell long rec o19.5 yards
•  Thomas o4.5 receptions

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

More Bears bashing

Yesterday I picked on the Chicago Bears' sad (and depleted) secondary as I bet on Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy, but doubling down on a fade of Da Bears defense — and betting on RB Javonte Williams' odds to also deliver his best rushing performance of the season — and top his Week 4 line of 52.5 yards.

Chicago's run defense is also very bad, as after giving up 92 rushing yards to Green Bay (currently the sixth-worst rushing attack in NFL) in Week 1, the Bears conceded 120 yards to the Buccaneers and 153 rush yards to Kansas City.

Williams has not been very good so far for Denver, averaging just 46 yards per game through three weeks, but he's also had a little bit of bad luck each week:

• Week 1: First game back after an ACL injury last year, split carries with Samaje Perine
• Week 2: Dominated RB carries, but Broncos inexplicably stopped running in the second half, despite a big lead.
• Week 3: Denver gave up 70 points (LOL) and had the ultimate negative game script.

Thankfully, all of those issues appear to be working in Williams' favor for Sunday: He's the clear lead back, as Perine has just four total carries over the last two weeks, Denver will not give up a year's worth of points on this game again (and as such, not necessitate abandoning the run), and then I'm expecting (hoping?) that Payton will have learned his lesson and will run the damn ball with what should be a solid second-half lead against a hapless Bears team.

Industry consensus projects Williams for about 60.5 yards, and if the passing attack does its job early, there should be plenty of carries for the Broncos lead back.

Prop: Javonte Williams Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Tutu goes choo-choo

It wouldn't be a weekly props article without fading the Indianapolis Colts secondary, and this week it's the Los Angeles Rams' turn to take aim — with my preferred market being Tutu Atwell's odds for his longest reception — which is currently 19.5 yards and is a number he should have no problem surpassing.

The Colts cornerbacks aren't good, comprised of an assortment of former UDFAs and rookie CBs, which has resulted in 13 completions of 20+ yards allowed already this season — and the Rams passing attack has not been shy on going downfield.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford is currently fifth among QBs with 12 completions of 20+ yards, and he, along with Atwell and emerging star Puka Nacua, has done a great job in picking apart zone defenses... and the Colts play the second-most zone in the NFL.

While Nacua is the No. 1 WR on the depth chart, Atwell has been the more consistent deep threat, with a team-leading seven targets of 20+ yards, (accounting for 26.9% of his targets) and he also has a higher average depth of target against zone than Nacua.

Both players are solid plays on the longest reception market, but considering Atwell's total is four yards shorter, I'll take that edge with a guy who goes down the field more consistently.

Prop: Tutu Atwell longest reception Over 19.5 yards (-120 at BetMGM)

Gotta catch 'em all

Don't look now, but the return of #CantGuardMike is finally here!

Maybe I'm a litttttle overreacting, as Chris Olave is the No. 1 WR on the New Orleans Saints, but with Jameis Winston starting at quarterback under center this Sunday, there's a real appeal in taking the Over on Michael Thomas' odds to catch 5+ passes.

Winston threw 16 passes in relief of Carr last Sunday, with Thomas the target on seven of those throws (43.8%) and the duo connecting on six of them. The veteran wideout is seemingly healthy after a few injury-plagued years, and with Alvin Kamara playing his first game of the season following a suspension, I'd expect Thomas to again be Winston's safety blanket when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bring the heat (they blitz 55.9% of the time, the third-highest rate in the NFL).

Thomas has also registered 5+ catches in eight straight games dating back to 2020 (yes, he's missed that much time), but he's run as many receiving routes as any Saints pass catcher and there's still value in this market: Some books are offering as short as -151 on this prop, but you can find it as low as -120 at BetMGM and -122 at FanDuel (it pays to price shop)!

Prop: Michael Thomas Over 4.5 receptions (-120 at BetMGM)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Chase-ing gains

Ahead of his Week 3 game against the Rams, Cincinnati Bengals star Ja'Marr Chase told his offensive coordinator that he needed the ball more, while quarterback Joe Burrow said he was "going to feed my guy."

After just one unsuccessful target through the first two drives of that Monday nighter, the star wide receiver finally broke out, garnering a whopping 12 catches on 14 targets throughout the team's next nine drives, and I'm betting on Ja'Marr Chase odds again this Sunday, specifically targeting his Over 6.5 receptions.

Chase and the Bengals face the Tennessee Titans, arguably the league's saddest secondary, with the fifth-highest yards, completion percentage, and opposing QB rating against — and the added bonus of being one of the NFL's stingiest run-stopping units, which forces teams to take the path of least resistance, which is passing the ball.

I'm leaning towards Chase's receptions over yards due to the fact that Burrow is still noticeably hampered by his calf injury. He's still showing little-to-no mobility in the pocket, and his ability to throw the deep ball so far has disappeared: He's just 10/34 on throws 10+ yards downfield this season (after completing 54.5% of such passes in 2022), which has forced him to dink-and-dunk his way downfield — showcased by Chase receiving 10 of his 15 overall targets (and nine of his 12 catches) on passes behind the line of scrimmage or in the 0-9 yard depth (per Pro Football Focus).

Watching Deshaun Watson, who struggled mightily throw his first two games, pick apart Tennessee last week with short stuff (20 of his 27 completions either behind LOS or 0-9 yards) showed that it's a viable way to move the ball, and until I see Burrow show more consistency and better health on the deep ball, I'd expect him to keep it to short, safe throws with his No. 1 target hauling in the lion's tiger's share of the receptions.

This market has already moved from -125 to -145 on the Over, with many operators now sitting at 7.5, so I'd jump on Chase while a 6.5 is still available.

Prop: Ja'Marr Chase Over 6.5 receptions (-145 at DraftKings)

Jeudy ready for duty

The Denver Broncos' defense is in utter shambles (to say the least) but the passing offense has been decent so far and they have a juicy matchup this week against another brutal defense in the Chicago Bears.

I can make an argument for (and very well might just end up) betting on all three of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Marvin Mims Jr. to go Over their receiving totals. However, with Mims' playing time still uncertain, it comes down to Sutton and Jeudy, who have receiving yards totals of 55.5 and 53.5 — but it's the Jerry Jeudy odds I'm most confident about.

General industry consensus projections actually favor Jeudy (65.4 yards vs. 59.5) with a 12-yard edge on his current line, and while Sutton has better numbers thus far, Jeudy is only getting healthier each week in recovering from a preseason hamstring injury. That said, he's been limited in practice the last two games with a knee injury, but there's been no indication yet that he is in danger of not playing.

Jeudy has also been great in exploiting zone defense, catching four of six targets for a team-high 84 yards against zone schemes in the two games he played while opening predominantly out of the slot, which is noteworthy because the Bears play zone at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL (just a shade over 82%) while blitzing an NFL-low 14.4% of the time.

Furthermore on Da Bears, who have allowed seven different pass-catchers to top 50 receiving yards so far, this secondary is absolutely decimated: Starting slot CB Kyler Gordon is on the IR, while Chicago's best overall CB (Jaylon Johnson) and free safety Eddie Jackson are both likely out... AND replacement corners Tyrique Stevenson and Josh Blackwell are also still questionable while dealing with injuries.

The Broncos could consistently be facing third- (or fourth- or fifth-) string defenders on an already bad defense, so again they're all strong plays... but I'll go with the guy with possibly the most advantageous matchup, and who the projections like the most, to rack up the yards Sunday.

Prop: Jerry Jeudy Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

The Joshua (route) tree

Unfortunate as it is, injuries are a (big) part of the NFL, and the Los Angeles Chargers have been no stranger to that. After losing star RB Austin Ekeler in Week 1 (and there's no timetable for his return), the Bolts lost No. 2 WR Mike Williams for the season in their Week 3 win.

Injury creates opportunity, however, and many have cast their gaze toward first-round pick Quentin Johnston. While he has the most upside and may eventually be the guy who fills Williams' shoes, I'm only focused on this week, where I think Joshua Palmer will be the one to step up as the No. 2 receiver across from star Keenan Allen — so I'm betting on Joshua Palmer's odds to go Over his receiving total, set at just 43.5 yards.

Palmer has been the clear No. 3 receiver for the Bolts so far, running 93 routes in three games, compared to Johnston's 38, and after Williams went down, the third-year pro stepped into his spot, playing 11 of 13 snaps.

We can also look to last year, when Palmer was the next-man-up for Chargers HC Brandon Staley in this very scenario, as he saw his target share increase to 22.8% in Weeks 9-13, when Williams was sidelined and/or barely played, from 13.7% in the rest of the season.

I'd expect Johnston to get an uptick in snaps — Staley even said as much, noting that a "bigger opportunity" awaits him — but for the immediate future, my money is on the veteran Palmer to be the main recipient of the 21.4% target share that's now up for grabs in Williams' absence.

Also helping Palmer this week is that he's done well against man-to-man coverage this season (catching seven of eight targets for 79 yards), and the Las Vegas Raiders have deployed more man coverage than zone early in the season.

Consensus projections have Palmer around 50.2 yards — with some forecasting as much as 55 yards — and considering he averaged 74.4 receiving yards per game when Williams was out last season (and registered 66 yards last week), I feel like 43.5 yards is a bit too low of a total. 

Prop: Joshua Palmer Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

NFL Week 4 prop betting card

• Javonte Williams Over 52.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Tutu Atwell longest reception Over 19.5 yards (-120)
• Michael Thomas Over 4.5 receptions (-120)

     - - 

• Ja'Marr Chase Over 6.5 receptions (-145)
• Jerry Jeudy Over 53.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Joshua Palmer Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Season to date: 10-7, +2.52 units

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