I made some progress in Week 3, posting my first winning week this season in betting on NFL player props.
I'm looking to keep the good times rolling this week, starting off with a TNF prop that backs a solid veteran against a run defense that is, well, so not solid it could be classified as... a liquid? Gas? Non-existent?
While I try to figure out the best scientific term for a bad defense, here are my best NFL picks for Week 4's slate of games.
Latest NFL prop picks
Singletary long rush o15.5 yards
(+100 at FanDuel)
Conklin o2.5 receptions
(-130 at bet365)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 4
Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 receptions
After two dud weeks to start the season, Tyler Conklin was the biggest beneficiary of the Aaron Rodgers Masterclass in Week 3, catching five of six targets for 93 yards.
It was comforting to see Rodgers remember he has a tight end, after years of seeing him rely on the position in Green Bay, and I think we will see another busy day for Conklin this week against the Denver Broncos.
Denver loves to bring pressure, sitting fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (30.6%) and blitzing a league-high 45.6% of the time, which should force a generally immobile Rodgers to make a lot of quick throws.
With Garrett Wilson likely to be locked down by Patrick Surtain II, Alan Lazard seeing his targets drop each week, and Mike Williams still working his way up to a full snap count, Conklin is positioned to be the safety valve — and his reception total of 2.5 is more appealing than RB Breece Hall at 4.5.
It's also not surprising that the Broncos have also allowed tight ends to have productive days already, as Cade Otton caught 7/8 targets last week for Tampa Bay and Pat Freiermuth went 4/4 the week before, and Denver has allowed the 10th-most receptions and an 83.3% catch rate to TEs overall this season.
Pick made on 9-26
Devin Singletary longest rush Over 15.5 yards
Devin Singletary is by no means a star but he is the RB1 for the New York Giants — and facing the Dallas Cowboys run defense gives him star potential this week.
I still haven't figured out a scientific description for Dallas' run defense, but man is it bad... by every metric you can think of:
- 32nd in rushing yards allowed
- 32nd in rushing yards per carry
- 32nd in average depth of tackle
- 31st in run stuff percentage
- 31st in run-stop win rate
Per Pro Football Focus, the Cowboys also have the fifth-most missed tackles against the run (18) but have only allowed two runs of 20+ yards; they just consistently get gashed for big gains.
This has me betting the Over on Singletary's longest rush, which opened at 14.5 yards but has since shifted to 15.5, although FanDuel offers this at even money.
The veteran RB has logged 16 carries in each of the Giants' last two games, and while he did fumble in both, he was productive overall: He's generated a league-leading 15 missed tackles over the last two weeks, along with six runs of 10+ yards — including runs of 43, 22, and 18 yards.
Singletary's rushing attempts total is 14.5, meaning he's expected to get a workload similar to his previous two weeks, and I could see it being a little more than that as the Giants will want to keep the ball on the ground (both to protect quarterback Daniel Jones from Micah Parsons' pass rush and to keep Dallas' passing attack off the field).
Every carry Singletary gets has a chance of turning into a chunk play against this sieve-like run defense — and I think he gashes them at least once tonight.
Pick made on 9-26
NFL Week 4 prop betting card
- Devin Singletary longest rush Over 15.5 yards (+100)
- Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 receptions (-130)
Last week: 3-2, +0.64 units
Season: 6-9, -2.98 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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