NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 5: Geno Keeps It Rolling

We’re heading into Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season, and the prop bets aren’t slowing down. Today, I’m backing a receiver who could see 30% or more of his team’s targets Sunday and a quarterback who Pro Football Focus ranks at No.1.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Williams Over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Smith Over 235.5 pasing yards (-110)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL Prop Picks for Sunday

Big Mike

Last week, the Los Angeles Chargers were without receivers Keenan Allen and Jalen Guyton, and this week Josh Palmer is questionable thanks to an ankle injury. Palmer is more probable than doubtful after getting in a full practice Friday, but this pass-catching group is thin.

Mike Williams is the healthiest and best receiver heading into Week 5. Even with a possible spike in target share after getting 11 targets on 39 passes a week ago, his receiving yard total is lower than it was in Weeks 2 and 3. The Cleveland Browns have one of the worst run defenses in football, ranking 30th in EPA/rush.

Because of this, the defense is giving up big plays in the secondary, as only two other teams are allowing more yards per completion than the Browns. Trying not to get gouged on the ground is opening up deeper holes in the secondary. The Cleveland pass defense is actually a Top 5 unit but has been exposed to the big play often this season. Its high rankings in pass defense are also built on the backs of some awful opposing pass offenses in the Falcons, Panthers, Jets, and Steelers.

Cleveland isn’t exactly healthy in its pass rush with Myles Garrett coming off a car accident and Jadeveon Clowney questionable. Starting corner Denzel Ward was also limited at practice all week. This could easily be another heavy-volume game for the hulking wideout with nice playing conditions at FirstEnergy Stadium. In two of the last three weeks, he’s posted eight catches for 113 yards and seven for 120. Now he has even less competition for targets in what should be a neutral matchup in terms of the game script.

With his ability to haul in deep passes against a secondary that has been prone to explosive pass plays, I’m happy riding his Over 66.5 receiving yards in a matchup that should benefit him greatly.

Mike Williams Prop: Over 65.5 receiving yards (-115)

QB No. 1

Geno Smith is PFF’s No.1 rated quarterback through four weeks. He is completing 77% of his passes, which is 10 points higher than his expected completion percentage. He ranks 2nd on RBSDM’s CPOE + EPA/play composite and is coming off a 320-yard performance.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are a big help and took 60% of the targets last week for 240 yards, while Rashaad Penny and the run game are keeping defenses honest. Smith’s passing total can be found at 235.5 yards (PointsBet), and with THE BLITZ projecting over 300 yards vs. a 20th-ranked New Orleans pass defense, I’m hitting the Over with confidence.

The Saints saw Kirk Cousins hit his passing Over last week in London, faced Baker Mayfield in Week 3, and saw a WR-less Tom Brady in Week 2. Despite the cupcake matchups, they still sit in the bottom third in EPA/dropback.

With a solid indoor matchup, I expect some scoring on Sunday and am betting on Smith having his third big game through the air.

Geno Smith Prop: Over 235 passing yards (-125)

NFL Prop Picks for Saturday

Green no more

New Orleans' receiver Chris Olave is the betting favorite for the Rookie of the Year (+450) and has been a monster for the Saints’ offense. With all the injuries to the receiving corps stacking up, the former Buckeye will be the focal point of the offense again Sunday vs. a Seattle defense that just gave up 378 passing yards to a depleted Detroit offense.

Over the last three weeks, Olave has a 30% target share including seven of Andy Dalton’s 28 passes (25% TS) last week. He’s faced the Bucs and Panthers over that stretch who are both Top-15 pass defenses and now faces the worst defense in EPA/dropback in Detroit.

The targets are great, but the rookie has also been doing plenty with them as he has 294 yards since Week 2, working out to 36% of the team’s total receiving yards. He’s led the Saints in receiving yards for three straight weeks. Michael Thomas and Jameis Winston are likely out while Jarvis Landry and Alvin Kamara are questionable after being limited in practice on Thursday.

It’s an indoor game and Geno Smith has proven a very competent quarterback and could keep things close meaning a more neutral game script. 

Even with his yardage total going from 59.5 to 63.5, I’m still hitting the Over in a perfect matchup. Olave only needs three or four catches to top this as he has one of the best air yards per reception in football at 13.9 and four catches of 30-plus yards.  

Chris Olave Prop: Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110)

Buying low on Hurts

The Eagles are running at 54% which is the third-highest rate in the league. Miles Sanders has been a beast in the backfield, but Jalen Hurts has 31% of the team’s total rushing yards (205 of the 661) on the year. 

He’s had 31 designed runs and his scrambles are banging out 6.71 yards per carry. Philadelphia comes into Week 5 as five-point road faves vs. an Arizona team that sits 21st in EPA/play and has one of the deepest injury reports of the week — including key pieces on defense.

Hurts is averaging 13 carries for 51 yards per game this season and still averaged 10 carries in the two games that the Eagles played with a positive game script in Weeks 2 and 3. 

His rushing total has fallen five yards to 47.5 thanks to just 58 yards on the ground over the last two weeks. It will be tough for the Cardinals to hold Hurts to 2.2 yards per carry as Jacksonville and Washington did over that stretch — two Top-10 defenses in success rate vs. the run. 

With Miles Sanders looking dangerous and this 31st-ranked pass defense having to respect A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Hurts will have room to roam Sunday. THE BLITZ projects the QB for 58.75 rushing yards.

Jalen Hurts Prop: Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Opportunity is greater than production 

There is nothing sexy about taking a Joe Mixon Over prop these days but with stubborn play-caller Zac Taylor giving him 20 carries a game, it’s hard not to take the Over on a modest rushing total of 59.5.

Mixon had 61 yards last week, which included a long of just seven yards. It’s hard not to break at least one 10-yard gain on the ground when getting 24 carries in a neutral game script. 

The new O-line is taking its sweet time to come together, but it does enter its Week 5 matchup vs. the Ravens healthy with extra rest. Baltimore ranks 18th in rush EPA and 14th in success rate. The Ravens are only seeing 22 rushing attempts per game but sit 23rd in yards per rush at 5.0. Teams just haven't run heavily against Jim Harbaugh's team.

On the season, Baltimore has faced three teams that rank in the Bottom 7 in run-rate percentage — the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills. Cincinnati is rushing close to 30 times a game, which ranks seventh in the league, and will likely lean on the run again Sunday as Joe Burrow has taken 16 sacks already this season. 

With Taylor being as predictable as they come, Mixon will certainly get a ton of carries Sunday night and he will be at 100% after some extra rest from playing on Thursday in Week 4. Mixon only needs 3.0 ypc at 20 carries to top this number.

Joe Mixon Prop: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-110) 

Singling out Singletary

Buffalo’s Devin Singletary has 125 receiving yards over the last two weeks but his receiving yard prop is at 17.5 — just two yards more than his closing number in Week 1.

The Buffalo running back saw 88% of the snaps last week, has run 118 routes which are the most by any NFL RB, and has taken over the Bills’ backfield. Sean McDermott’s offense is also passing the ball at 65% on the season.

A trend in the NFL is forcing these elite quarterbacks to throw underneath as the rise of Cover-2 is multiple seasons in. Allen sits 16th in air yards per attempt and has no issues checking down as Singletary has 16 targets for 13 catches over the last two weeks. 

Allen could also see 20 mph winds which could help the short passing game. Pittsburgh is allowing 39 receiving yards per game which is a Bottom-10 mark in football. 

With a sub-20 receiving total for a near-90% back who runs more routes than any other RB in football, I’m hammering this Over. 

Devin Singletary Prop: Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Hall-er at ya boy 

Breece Hall’s total yards market has jumped from 60.5 to 64.5 and I still think it's too short considering he has essentially taken over the No. 1 role in the Jets’ backfield.

The rookie RB rushed 17 times for 66 yards and a touchdown last week and took 66% of the snaps. He’s also second in the NFL in targets among RBs behind Austin Ekeler. His arrow is pointing up and he could see close to 20 touches again vs. a Miami team that won’t be nearly as productive with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Even if the Jets are playing catch-up, Hall’s dominance in the passing game makes him game-script-proof as he ran a pass route on 66% of the Jets’ pass plays in Week 4.

The Dolphins do sit ninth in success rate vs. the run, but the Jets have faced three Top-15 rushing defenses vs. this season (Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh) and Hall has still managed to average 4.7 yards per carry. With Zach Wilson under center, the Jets will be more conservative as we saw in Week 4 — 29 rush attempts vs. an average of 19 rush attempts in Weeks 1 through 3. 

If you don’t have access to his total yards market, I’d side with his Over 16.5 receiving yards but Wilson doesn’t target his RBs as much as Joe Flacco did, which is why I’m hitting his rushing and receiving market. 

Breece Hall Prop: Over 64.5 total yards (-115)

Season to date: 41-30, +9.92 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 5 prop betting card

• Smith Over 235.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
• Williams Over 65.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)
• Olave Over 63.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• Hurts Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• Mixon Over 59.6 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Singletary Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Hall Over 64.5 yards (-115 at bet365)

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