NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 6: Kamara Finds His Stride

We're into Week 6 in NFL betting, and the schedule makers have served up a potential game of the year with the Bills heading to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs.

While that potential AFC title game preview will capture the viewership and imagination of the late afternoon audience, there's no shortage of worthwhile NFL player prop picks around the league to focus in on. 

Before Sunday's action kicks off, I'm bringing you two of my favorite plays, looking at the league's best receiving back — who has been given new life — and an unstoppable force at tight end. Check out my latest NFL prop picks below. 

Latest NFL prop picks

• Kamara Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Goedert Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Reloaded AK

Andy Dalton will start again for the Saints this week, and that's welcome news for Alvin Kamara after a slow start to the season harkened fears of the dreaded running back cliff. Dalton's presence under center isn't welcome news because of the balance it'll give New Orleans' offense — though Kamara looked like vintage AK41 last week — but rather the increased volume for him in the passing game.

Kamara's underwhelming role in that phase to begin the season came as no surprise to anyone who had followed Jameis Winston's career previously. The gunslingin' former Buc has simply never looked to his backs with any sort of frequency in the passing game, and he certainly has never been one to opt for the safety of a check down. 

The same cannot be said for Dalton, who helped Gio Bernard become one of the NFL's best third-down backs while together in Cincinnati and, while vastly less talented than Winston, works through his progressions and gets the ball out in a much cleaner fashion to his teammate. The difference between Winston, frequently going broke in the effort to get rich, and the safe hands of Dalton was immediately reflected in Kamara's numbers last week. 

Kamara had a classic showing which included catching all six of his targets and turning them into 91 yards through the air. That was a result of Seattle's defense, sure, but greater involvement played a major part too. After topping out at a 17% target share and 55% route participation with Winston under center — which led to five catches and 19 yards across two games — Kamara's role was restored with a 24% target share and 65% route participation last week.

With Dalton retaining his place under center this week, we should expect Kamara's outsized role in the passing game to be retained, too. With that being the case, AK will easily clear his receiving yards total of 33.5 this week. 

Alvin Kamara Prop: Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)

Dallas on Dallas

After a phenomenal start to 2022 — which has coincided with Kyle Pitts' disappearance and George Kittle teetering on washed — Dallas Goedert has as good of a claim to TE3 in the league as anyone. The Eagles tight end, enjoying his first full year without Zach Ertz splitting snaps with him, is well on his way to resetting his career highs across the board — and is set up to have a strong showing on Sunday Night Football.

Goedert's foe in Week 6, the Cowboys, have a truly bizarre and unsustainable track record against tight ends so far this year. While Dallas has conceded the fifth-most targets (39) and sixth-most catches (28) to the position, it has given up the fourth-fewest yards at just 154.

Dan Quinn's defense does a tremendous job of swarming to the ball and staying over the top but 3.9 yards allowed per target and 5.5 yards allowed per catch don't reflect how the Cowboys have fared against tight ends. And, if anyone is going to exploit the Cowboys' looming regression in yardage given up to tight ends, Goedert is the one to do so.

The fifth-year tight end looks like he's back at South Dakota State this year, bowling through defenders like they're FCS-caliber players and not pros. Among tight ends and receivers, Goedert leads the NFL in both yards after the catch total (272) and per reception, at 11.3, this season.

Simply, this line is just too low — considerably so. Goedert has gone Over 45.5 yards in four of five games this season and is primed to do so again in primetime. 

Dallas Goedert Prop: Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Devin intervention 

The game of the week, and possibly the game of the season, will take place at Arrowhead on Sunday as the Chiefs host the Bills. The two NFL MVP odds favorites, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, will take center stage but in what should be a thriller, lesser pieces will get the chance to step up. For Buffalo, that will be running back Devin Singletary.

The third-year tailback has never really stood out as above replacement level as a runner, and the Bills told us as much with the selection of James Cook in the spring. However, going back to the tail end of last season, it's hard to deny that when the chips are down, Buffalo wants to depend on its backfield's elder-statesman. 

After never playing more than 75% of the Bills' offensive snaps in a single game through the first 12 of the '21 season, Singletary played 83% of Buffalo's snaps through the final five regular season games and two postseason contests — including every snap in the divisional round vs. the Chiefs. 

A similar trend has played out early this year. In the Bills' three blowout wins, Singletary has played 53% of the team's snaps on offense. In their two close games, the grueling loss in Miami and the comeback win over Baltimore, he's played 79%. 

Suffice to say, Singletary will feature heavily in the Bills' backfield on Sunday and as a result, will make light work of his receiving yards total of 20.5. With the verticality of Buffalo's passing game, there's a ton of space underneath for Allen to check down to Singletary when needed, and the volume alone will help him go Over this total.

In that nine-game sample above, from the Bills' final seven games last year and two close games this season, Singletary's averaged 4.6 targets, 3.7 catches, and 30.3 receiving yards. Now, not only does this game have the highest total on the board in Week 6 but Kansas City has allowed the most production to RBs through the air by a wide margin, giving up an average of 11.4 targets, 9.8 catches, and 70 yards per game.

I would've comfortably played the Over on this up to 34.5 yards. As it currently stands, it's a no-brainer. 

Devin Singletary Prop: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115)

The last G-Man standing 

By now, Saquon Barkley's resurgence as one of the league's premier offensive threats is well-known. Barkley is healthy, running with more decisiveness than ever, and looks like the focal point he was expected to be coming out of Penn State.

While it's on the ground where the bulk of Barkley's production has come in '22, we're going to focus on his receiving yards line for this prop. Already a central part of a talent-poor New York offense, Barkley's importance in the passing game will be greater this week with hypothetical receivers Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay ruled out.

Though his receiving numbers have been modest this year, with 4.6 targets, 3.6 catches, and 28.6 yards per game, his role in a passing game absent of dependable weapons has been excellent. Both Barkley's target share (18.7%) and route participation (60%) is the highest since his rookie season, in which he saw 121 targets for 91 catches.

Barkley's raw numbers may not suggest an elite pass-catching tailback but the usage itself is elite, and that's fantastic ahead of this matchup.

That's because, while 4-1, the Giants are paper tigers. The Ravens are 5.5-point favorites as of writing, but even that might be generous to the G-Men. Baltimore is third in DVOA while New York's 18th. I expect New York to be playing from behind and it's great news for us here.

More time behind for the Giants means more chances for Barkley to be involved, and the Ravens haven't defended running backs well this season. Only the Chiefs have allowed more production through the air to the position, with Baltimore allowing an average of 9.4 targets, 7.2 catches, and 51.6 yards per game.

Trust Barkley to exploit the matchup and go Over his line here.

Saquon Barkley Prop: Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Breece yourself

Widely seen as the best running back in this past spring's draft, it was just a matter of when, not if, Breece Hall would take command of a Jets backfield that already featured Michael Carter. It perhaps took a couple of weeks longer than it should have but the keys to New York's backfield are now firmly held by Hall.

Hall's ascension coincided with Zach Wilson making his season debut — and the Jets' pass rate lessening as a result. Through the first three weeks, in which Joe Flacco was under center, Carter out-carried Hall, 28-21, and played 56% of the offense's snaps compared to 42% for Hall. The last two weeks have seen a reversal, however, with Hall out-carrying Carter 35-19 and playing 67% of the snaps to Carter's 43%. 

New York's decision to lean heavily on Hall was not just opting for superior talent — he's averaged 4.07 yards created per touch compared to Carter's 2.89 — but vastly superior efficiency, too. On the surface, that's obvious, with Hall's 4.9 yards per carry towering over Carter's 3.4 clip. It remains true going deeper, with Hall sixth in DYAR and seventh in DVOA among RBs while Carter sits 33rd in DYAR and 34th in DVOA. 

With a line of just 59.5 rushing yards set for Hall on Sunday, game script isn't a big concern — and the Packers might not be, either. We've already seen Green Bay bet down, and it played down to competition against New England and the Giants. The Packers will do so again on Sunday and Hall's rapidly growing role will play a part.  

Breece Hall Prop: Over 59.5 rushing yards (-115)

Steel curtains for Harris 

What do you get when you have a middling tailback, add in a lingering foot injury, a spicy backup, and a stout defensive front? Thank you for asking, the answer is the Under on Najee Harris' total yards this week.

Harris' receiving numbers were always going to plummet in 2022 after serving as a contact-adverse Ben Roethlisberger's first, second, and third read in '21. That has played out, with Harris seeing just three targets per game this year after averaging 4.3 catches per contest last year. 

While Harris' regression as a receiver was expected and not alarming, the way he has fallen off a cliff as a runner has been jarring.

Already not great at breaking or evading tackles, Harris is moving like an aircraft carrier this year. Harris' yards after contact per carry has fallen a full yard this year, from 2.2 to 1.2. His yards created per touch has fallen from an already meh 2.72 to a paltry 2.23 this year. And, perhaps most damning of how his body feels — despite Mike Tomlin's insistence an August lisfranc sprain isn't an issue — Harris is averaging a broken tackle every 34.5(!) carries this year, after 10.2 carries per tackle broken as a rookie.

The poor play, and perhaps poor health, of Harris, has become glaring to even Steelers coaches now. After a strong preseason, rookie UDFA Jaylen Warren played a minor role in Pittsburgh's offense until last week, when he out-snapped Harris, 38-37, and received nine touches to Harris's 14. Tomlin suggested that Warren's increased role would continue. 

Mike Tomlin says Rookie RB Jaylen Warren's role has increased and that WILL continue

— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) October 11, 2022

So, Harris is among the league's worst tailbacks at the moment, has had his production as a receiver fall off a cliff, and is going to lose snaps to his backup — who has looked considerably better in a small sample this year.

In a matchup against a Bucs defense still in the top half of the league in run defense DVOA, I am happily fading a player rapidly fading from Pittsburgh's offense. 

Najee Harris Prop: Under 60.5 total yards (-115)

It's good to Higbee needed

After closing at 4.5 in each of the first four games this season, Tyler Higbee's receptions total finally ticked up last week and closed at 5.5. And, despite the Rams' offense reaching a new nadir, the tight end still eased over that number in a seven-catch day.

With Higbee's catch total set at 5.5 again this week, with plus money to the Over, I'm not hesitating in again riding the Over on one of the NFL's true Jenga pieces. L.A.'s offense has crumbled into something hideously unrecognizable this year, with no running game, poor protection, and few options for Matthew Stafford beyond Cooper Kupp. 

However, while Allen Robinson continues to plunge to new depths, Higbee's become Stafford's secondary target and an extension of the Rams' running game. 

Higbee's second on L.A. in receptions with 33, and well above Ben Skowronek, third with 18. Across the board, his receiving numbers are much, much higher than ever before. His 9.6 targets per game tower over his previous career high (5.9), as does his 6.6 receptions per game (previous career high 4.6).

Those numbers are a product of, among other things, a greatly increased role with Higbee's target share (25.3%) and route participation (86.5%) career highs too. 

While Higbee's receiving numbers have skyrocketed, his average depth of target has actually fallen to 4.0, down from 5.4 last year and 8.0 in 2020 for the lowest mark of his career. That's because, with a broken rushing attack, Sean McVay has taken to targeting Higbee on quick-hitters and tunnel screens to manufacture any semblance of a running game and continue to stress defenses on the perimeter in its absence. 

Tunnel screens to a middling athlete at tight end isn't the sexiest thing in the world but for those of us on the Over on his receptions week after week, it's been a beautiful sight to behold.  

Tyler Higbee Prop: Over 5.5 receptions (+105)

NFL Week 6 prop betting card

• Kamara Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Goedert Over 45.5 receiving yards (-110)

    — —

• Singletary Over 20.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Barkley Over 27.5 receiving yards (-115)

    — —

• Hall Over 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Harris Under 60.5 total yards (-110)
• Higbee Over 5.5 receptions (+105)

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