We're heading into the one-third mark of the NFL season, meaning we're starting to get a reasonable sample of data about who (and what) every team is truly made of, what we can reasonably expect from players, and how to zone in on NFL player props.
Then, well, injuries happen — and everything you think you know about the NFL odds gets blown into Narnia so it's back to the drawing board.
We're not quite at that spot as we look through the Week 6 odds, but I've got nearly a full fantasy lineup of NFL picks this week!
Read on to see how I'm betting a quarterback who finally has his favorite target back, two running backs getting injury-related boosts, a wide receiver who does better with a backup QB, a tight end stepping up in the wake of his team losing its top WR, and then another pass-catcher that has a fantastic matchup across the pond.
Latest NFL prop picks
Pierce o48.5 rush yards
Mostert o67.5 rush yards
Downs o3.5 receptions
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Saturday
Marching in on the Saints
The Houston Texans have finally started to let Dameon Pierce take over as the clear No. 1 in the backfield, so when I see Dameon Pierce's odds for his rushing total sitting at 48.5 yards, it's something I'm jumping on.
After getting 40 combined rushing attempts in Weeks 1-3 (in which he totaled 38, 31, and 31 yards) while backup Devin Singletary logged 40 carries, Pierce has rushed the rock 44 times in his last two contests — compared to just seven (mostly garbage time) carries for Singletary — recording 81 and 66 yards, respectively.
I get that the low total also is a result of facing the New Orleans Saints defense, who have allowed just 62.2 rushing yards per game to running backs (sixth-best in the league) and are second in rush defense EPA/play, but their numbers are a little misleading: The Saints first five opponents rank 32nd, 29th, 26th, 16th, and 15th in rush attack EPA/play.
The Texans haven't been much better so far, sitting 30th in rush EPA and 28th in run block win rate, but this offensive line has been absolutely decimated by injuries all season and is finally starting to get health: Offensive tackles Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard finally returned last week after missing the first four games, and it's no surprise that Pierce logged a respectable 66 yards against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 1 in rush defense EPA.
Industry projections range as high as almost 80 yards for Pierce and average about 67 yards; I'm assuming Pierce will again dominate the backfield snaps and carries and while I don't expect him to have a monster day, I think 48.5 yards is simply too low of a number.
Prop: Dameon Pierce Over 48.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
New feature 'Fin
De'Von Achane had taken the NFL by storm, breaking off massive big games and putting up ridiculous stat lines over the last three weeks, but after getting placed on the IR this week, he'll miss a few games, which opens the door for Raheem Mostert odds to be the primary focus of those betting on the Miami Dolphins backfield.
The veteran had virtually been in a 50/50 split with Achane over the last three weeks, actually getting four more carries, but with Achane out, Jeff Wilson Jr. doubtful, and Salvon Ahmed also banged up, Mostert should be in line the for lion's share of carries against a vulnerable Carolina Panthers defense.
Carolina is dead last in the NFL in defensive rush EPA, 30th in rushing yards against per game to RBs (128), and 29th in run stop win rate. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are a full rushing juggernaut, sitting third in run block win rate, first in rushing EPA per play, and are second in the league in generating 2.2 yards before contact per rushing attempt (per Pro Football Focus).
Achane is a home-run threat with blazing speed, averaging 12.1 yards per carry and having two of the five fastest top speeds on a play this year... but Mostert is also a burner, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, including the fifth-fastest speed by a ball carrier this year on this play:
🎥 Raheem Mostert's 43-yard TD run vs. the Patriots (@NFL) #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/nHFS2r5ZHu
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) September 18, 2023
The Panthers also have allowed a 10+ yard run on 14.5% of all carries this year (fifth-most in the league), so there's plenty of potential for Mostert to gain most — or all — of these yards in one or two plays.
He's received at least 10 carries in three of his last four games (the exception being just seven runs in a blowout loss to Buffalo), where he recorded 121, 82, and 65 rushing yards — he should get in the 15-carry neighborhood on Sunday, making me confident he tops this modest total in Week 6.
Prop: Raheem Mostert Over 67.5 rushing yards (-101 at Caesars)
Going for the Downs
Normally when a team loses its No. 1 QB, that's a bad thing. I said 'normally,' because in the case of the Indianapolis Colts, having Gardner Minshew replace Anthony Richardson is actually a boost for the workload of rookie WR Josh Downs — and for those (like me) who are excited to bet on Josh Downs odds.
With Richardson, the fourth-overall pick in this year's draft, under center, Downs has received just 16% target share. With Minshew (who has played a lot since Richardson has gotten hurt in every game he's played), Downs is seeing a 25% target share — and the mustachioed man who captivated the hearts of football fans for years will be playing the entire game this Sunday in a sneaky revenge game spot against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Downs' receiving yards total is sitting at a reasonable 45.5 yards, but I'm actually going to target his reception total, which is available at 3.5 and seems like the safer bet as Minshew is very much a dink-and-dunk QB at this point.
Minshew is 22nd among all QBs (min. 50 pass attempts) with 6.7 yards per attempt and 31st with a 6.7 average depth of target, as 74% of his pass attempts so far this season have been either short (0-9 yards downfield) or behind the line of scrimmage.
His favorite area to throw is between the numbers in the short range, where he's completed 22 of 24 passes. That also benefits Downs, who has lined up in the slot 75.9% of the time and is 17th among all WR in average separation (per Next Gen Stats) — plus he has an advantageous matchup vs. slot CB Tre Herndon, who has allowed an 84.2% catch rate (16/19 targets) when in slot coverage.
There's a little bit of juice attached to this play, as the best price currently is -155 at bet365, but considering most other operators have this in the -180 to -220 range, there's value in getting this play at this number. If you're unable to get this play at that price, there are some books offering Over 4.5 at plus money — I'd take that before laying the extreme juice on the 3.5.
Prop: Josh Downs Over 3.5 receptions (-155 at bet365)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Kiss from a rose
Personally, I love waking up bright and early on Sunday morning and watching an NFL game right away... especially when I've got a bet or two in play.
That's exactly the case for this game, as I'm betting Zay Flowers odds this week, when the Baltimore Ravens travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in the UK, taking the Over on his receiving yards total.
This line is generally available at 55.5 yards, with some operators going as high as 59.9, against the miserable Tennessee Titans secondary. Aside from the Titans allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game, eight different receivers topping 56 yards already, and getting extra attention due to a very good run defense, Tennessee is also a great matchup for Flowers.
The rookie WR lives in the short game, with 61.5% of his 39 targets this year either 0-9 yards downfield or behind the line of scrimmage (which leads the team), while also leading the Ravens with eight deep (20+ yard) targets — which is almost equal to the 10 deep looks from the rest of the Ravens WR/TE.
He doesn't work as much in intermediate routes, leaving that space to Mark Andrews and Nelson Agholor, but that is perfect for attacking the Titans, who have allowed the third-most passing yards on short throws or passes behind the LOS, along with the seventh-most deep receiving yards (per Pro Football Focus).
Last week, Josh Downs did most of his damage (59 yards) against the Titans on short throws. Two weeks ago, Ja'Marr Chase torched them with underneath stuff, and Amari Cooper got 89 of his 116 yards in Week 3 on a mix of short and deep throws.
Flowers also is third among all NFL WRs with seven missed tackles, so there's definite YAC potential as well, and with consensus projections forecasting more than 60 yards for him on Sunday, I'm expecting him to methodically bury Tennessee's secondary — with a couple of deep plays mixed in — en route to topping this numbers for the fifth time in six career NFL games.
Prop: Zay Flowers Over 55.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)
Fully Staffed
Let's get right to it with this pick; no fanciness or secret angles, I'm betting on Matthew Stafford odds this Sunday because it's a pass-heavy offense against a bad Arizona Cardinals pass defense.
The Los Angeles Rams QB is second in dropbacks this season and fourth in passing yards (291.4 per game), with his biggest challenge consistently being when his subpar offensive line crumbles under a strong pass rush.
His two worst pass-yardage games came against Philadelphia (222 yards) and Cincinnati (269), where he was pressured on 22% and 27.5% of his dropbacks. In his other three games:
- Seattle: Pressured on 7.7% of DBs, 334 yards
- San Francisco: Pressured on 16.9% of DBs, 307 yards
- Indianapolis: Pressured on 20.5% of DBs, but their secondary is so bad he still got 319 yards
This Sunday, he gets to attack the Cardinals, who are easily the worst defense Stafford will have faced yet: Arizona's defense ranks 31st in pressure percentage (16.3%), 29th in dropback EPA per play, and 28th in passing yards allowed per game (251.4) — which is helped by a 202-yard effort vs. Washington in Week 1; remove that game and the Cards have allowed opposing QBs to average 292.5 passing yards per game over the last four weeks.
Arizona also runs zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate in the league, and Stafford has one of the league's best receivers vs. zone in Puka Nacua... and oh yeah superstar Cooper Kupp returned last week and did not miss a beat in logging eight catches for 118 yards.
Consensus projections for Stafford range as high as 299 yards and as low as 245, but considering the Rams run the third-most plays per game, the lack of pressure means Stafford should consistently be able to pick apart this secondary with all the weapons at his disposal.
Prop: Matthew Stafford Over 277.5 passing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Hock's the man
The Minnesota Vikings were dealt a massive blow with superstar WR Justin Jefferson being sidelined for the foreseeable future. Thankfully for QB Kirk Cousins, it shouldn't affect him too much this Sunday against a weak Chicago Bears defense — and while it's tempting to look at the next man up on the WR depth chart, it's actually tight end T.J. Hockenson's odds I'm targeting for Week 6, specifically the Over on his receiving yards.
This line opened at 49.5 yards and quickly moved to 54.5 across the board — but while most books are offering standard juice, as of Friday morning bet365 is offering this line at +115. He's managed 51+ yards in three of his last four games, has received 8+ targets four times this season, and is second on the team (by a fair margin) in targets and receptions... and that was with Jefferson in the lineup.
He's not going to get all of the 32.5% target share JJ leaves behind, but he's consistently been the No. 2 target on the team; he'll be in line for a few extra looks, a total that is the same as last week — and about five yards more than his most common line this season — a bit puzzling.
Hockenson also has a fantastic matchup with the Bears, who lead the NFL with 286 passing yards allowed per game, while playing zone at the fourth-highest rate (84%) in the league and allowing 9.0 yards per zone coverage target (31st in the league, per PFF). Through five games, 24 of Hockenson's 38 targets (63.2%) have come vs. zone coverage and he's converted 75% of those into catches, totaling 142 yards.
Chicago puts an emphasis on trying to prevent teams from going over the top, forcing opponents to just take everything underneath, and we saw that in action last week: Washington TE Logan Thomas caught a team-high nine passes for 77 yards. Travis Kelce went for a team-leading 69 yards vs. Chicago in Week 3, Luke Musgrave went for 50 yards in Week 1, plus Cade Otton got 41 of his 89 total yards (for the season) against the Bears in Week 2.
In all, the Bears have allowed the 10th-most yards (56.4) and fourth-most catches (6.8) per game to TEs. Hockenson's consensus projections have him around 60 yards, giving a little bit of a buffer against a TE-friendly defense, and while the Over 5.5 receptions is also in play, I like his yardage total a little bit more in Week 6.
Prop: T.J. Hockenson Over 54.5 receiving yards (+115 at bet365)
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NFL Week 6 prop betting card
- Dameon Pierce Over 48.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Raheem Mostert Over 67.5 rushing yards (-101)
- Josh Downs Over 3.5 receptions (-155)
- -
- Zay Flowers Over 55.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Matthew Stafford Over 277.5 passing yards (-115)
- T.J. Hockenson Over 54.5 receiving yards (+115)
Last week: 3-3
Season to date: 16-13, +1.23 units
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