Covers NFL Staff Picks, Best Bets, and Bold Predictions for 2024

Sundays full of football — plus Thursday, Monday, and Saturday (!!!!) action — is on the horizon with final week of preseason on tap... and the real deal less than a fortnight away.

Everybody and their dog (and probably also their gerbils, ravens, capybaras, and cardinals) has advice for how to approach the plethora of odds available while giving their best bets — but we've got the goods that everybody needs to see — the official NFL picks from the Covers staff!

We've polled our best pro football betting minds for their favorite plays for the upcoming season, getting their selection to win the biggest awards, plus their best bet for the year and a bold prediction.

Check out where our crew is leaning this year, and then feel free to follow along — or fade us (at your own risk) — once the season gets underway!

Super Bowl winner

Writer	Super Bowl winner
Jason      Logan	Chiefs over Lions
Joe      Osborne	Lions over Chiefs
Josh      Inglis	Eagles over Bills
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Chiefs over Eagles
Jared      Hochman	Bengals over Packers

Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst: To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs could be on cruise control in the regular season, but they’re too talented — and too well coached — for the Lions in Super Bowl LIX.

Joe Osborne, Senior Content Creator: It could be a perfect storm for the Lions as most of the Pro Bowl-level talent is still ascending, they got some playoff experience under their belt last season, and they were able to retain OC Ben Johnson, the most important coach on their staff. That right there is a great blueprint for becoming a champion. The Chiefs have a great defense and Patrick Mahomes — enough said. 

Josh Inglis, Analyst: Philadelphia gets back to its 2022 ways after bringing in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio. This offense is scary and wins in New Orleans in Super Bowl LIX. Perhaps with the changes on offense, Josh Allen and the Bills finally get through KC in the AFC.

Rohit Ponnaiya, Analyst: Fade the Chiefs at your own peril; their offense was less explosive than usual last year but that forced their defense to become a more formidable unit. Now, after adding speedsters Marquis Brown and Xavier Worthy at WR, Mahomes again has the weapons to torch foes. Jalen Hurts is poised for a bounce-back year and pass defense was Philly's biggest weakness last season, but adding corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the draft — and signing Bryce Huff to upgrade the pass rush — gives new DC Vic Fangio the players he needs to thrive.

Jared Hochman, Content Manager: A healthy(ish) Joe Burrow, improved offensive line, fortified defense, and the duo of Ja'Marr Chase-Tee Higgins give the Bengals arguably the most complete team in the league, at a fantastic price of 13/1. The Packers almost beat the Niners in the playoffs last year, but with Jordan Love's ascent and a roster trending upwards... I can easily see the Cheeseheads winning the NFC.

NFL MVP

Writer	MVP
Jason      Logan	Jared Goff (+2500 )
Joe      Osborne	Josh Allen (+900 )
Josh      Inglis	Jalen Hurts (+1600 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Kirk Cousins (+3500 )
Jared      Hochman	Josh Allen (+900 )

Logan: Goff leads the most complete team in the NFL (Lions are faves in 13 games) and with Ben Johnson back at OC, he’ll finally get his flowers after ranking among the league’s elite passers the past two seasons.

Osborne: Perhaps more so than any other QB, Allen can get a lot out of a little in terms of the players around him; which always has him in the mix as one of the most valuable players to his team. Combine that with a great track record of production, highlight-reel plays, health, and winning football, and Allen should be in the conversation all season.

Inglis: Hurts has elite weapons everywhere, possibly a poor secondary to keep the passing game activated, and an easy SOS. Moore's offense ranked second in neutral pace last year, so more plays are on the way.

Ponnaiya: OK, I get that this seems crazy but at +3,500 the value is undeniable. Cousins has always posted impressive numbers and Atlanta's schedule is filled with games in warmer weather and domes. He won't have Justin Jefferson anymore but he's surrounded by plenty of weapons in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts — and new Falcons OC Zac Robinson loves to air it out.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Writer	OROY
Jason      Logan	Caleb Williams (+135 )
Joe      Osborne	Caleb Williams (+135 )
Josh      Inglis	Jayden Daniels (+700)
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Caleb Williams (+135 )
Jared      Hochman	Xavier Worthy (+2500 )

Logan: Chicago is set up for Williams to succeed, offering multiple options on offense. The Bears also face only six defenses that ranked in the top half of EPA allowed per dropback — and nine of those squads rated 20th or higher in that metric.

Inglis: Great pass catchers, he's mobile, and a decent SOS. I like Kliff Kingsbury in the OC role this year with plenty of weapons, plus the price is great compared to Caleb Williams.

Hochman: Travis Kelce is the go-to guy, and Rashee Rice is the best WR on the roster, but Worthy immediately brings the deep element back into play for Mahomes, which immediately puts him into relevancy. Once Andy Reid figures out how to utilize him beyond just vertical threats? I've seen worse bets at 25/1.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Writer	DROY
Jason      Logan	Mike Sainristil (+4000 )
Joe      Osborne	Chop Robinson (+1700 )
Josh      Inglis	Chop Robinson (+1700 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Laiatu Latu (+550 )
Jared      Hochman	Laiatu Latu (+550 )

Logan: Dan Quinn’s chaos-causing defense produced a ton of takeaways in Dallas and made stars out of his secondary. Sainristil had six interceptions for the title-winning Michigan Wolverines last year... and took two of those picks to the house.

Osborne: The talent is there and the opportunity will be too as Miami will be leaning on Robinson early with both Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips coming off serious injuries. 

Inglis: The bargain bet with a guy on a team that will struggle in the secondary, plus he will have plenty of pass-rush opportunities with the injuries and turnover the Fins have had. Always go EDGE in this market.

Ponnaiya: Six of the last eight DROY winners have been guys that get after the QB and this award almost always goes to first-round picks. Latu checks both of those boxes and he will get plenty of opportunities for the Colts after their 2023 sack-leader Samson Ebukam suffered a season-ending injury in camp. Minnesota's Dallas Turner is also a stud pass rusher but Latu is more polished and technical with a better motor.

Hochman: Latu's speed makes him an immediate impact player and with Indy's leading sack man Samson Ebukam out for the year, Latu will have the opportunity to rack up the sacks and stats to propel him to DROY.

Best bet this season

Writer	Best bet
Jason      Logan	Vikings finish fourth in NFC North (-160 )
Joe      Osborne	Jets to miss the playoffs (+145 )
Josh      Inglis	Eagles win the NFC East (+100 )
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Nick Bosa Over 11.5 sacks  (-120 )
Jared      Hochman	Trey McBride o750.5 rec yards (-115 )

Osborne: Are we really falling for the Jets? Again? Yes, they were dealt an awful hand to open last season, but their soon-to-be 41-year-old QB is even further removed from high-caliber play while coming off a serious injury. Combining that with one of the worst coaching staffs in the NFL will lead to the playoff drought continuing for New York. 

Inglis: I'm buying the hype on the Eagles this year after the inconsistencies of 2024 and a lot of turnover on the coaching staff.

Ponnaiya: We're getting a far better number than Bosa's 2023 total (15.5) but keep in mind he missed all of training camp last year, resulting in just 2.5 sacks through the first seven games. He still finished the year with 10.5 sacks and his pass rush grade of 92.3 was the third-highest in the league per PFF. With a full camp and OTAs this year, he should approach his 2021-22 form, when he had 34 sacks in 33 games.

Hochman: McBride had a breakout in the second half of last season, and the tight end finished with 825 yards. He has a healthy Kyler Murray, is in year two under HC Jonathan Gannon, and fourth-overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. should draw most of the defense's attention.

Bold prediction for 2024

Writer	Bold Prediction
Jason      Logan	Sean McDermott first coach fired
Joe      Osborne	De'Von Achane to lead the league in rushing yards
Josh      Inglis	Aaron Rodgers starts fewer than 11 games
Rohit      Ponnaiya	Chargers fail to win seven games
Jared      Hochman	Jaxon Smith-Njigba Top 10 in rec yards

Logan: A sterling regular season record has kept McDermott employed through playoff shortcomings and rough patches, including praising the 9/11 terrorists. WTF? The Bills take a step back in 2024 and a challenging start sees four of the first six games on the road versus top-tier opposition. The Week 11 matchup with Kansas City could be the "long kiss goodnight" for McDermott before a Week 12 bye.

Osborne: In the five games where he had double-digit touches, Achane averaged 118 rushing yards per game and had an insane 7.8 yards per carry on the season. It's fair to expect those touches to go up in 2024 as Achane likely becomes the lead back ahead of 32-year-old Raheem Mostert.

Inglis: I see chaos with that roster, especially with a 40-something QB coming off an Achilles injury, and the media hype will get LOUD as the season rolls on.

Ponnaiya: New HC Jim Harbaugh's offensive philosophy isn't a good fit for a team with Gus Edwards at RB and poor interior blocking, plus Justin Herbert will get frustrated in a hurry throwing to the league's worst WR corps. The Bolts will also struggle on the other side of the ball, thanks to a terrible defensive line and mediocre group of corners. The Bolts' O/U is 8.5 wins (Under +130) but alt-Under 6.5 at +370 is a bet I'm making.

Hochman: Smith-Njigba was stuck as WR3 in a slow Pete Carroll offense last year. He was already a Top-10 WR in average separation and now has Ryan Grubb as the OC, who built the University of Washington into one of the NCAA's most lethal passing attacks. If JSN moves to WR2 (not a stretch), the sheer volume could see him explode in a big way.

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