Throughout the NFL season, teams aren’t just battling whichever opponent shows up that week but the schedule itself.
The calendar can throw a lot at teams, like pulling them away from home for extended periods, stuffing a bunch of games into a small window, or planting them in a cold weather spot at the end of the season.
For fans of situational handicapping — AKA spot bets — these schedule quirks are golden, giving an outside intangible beyond what the power ratings and statistics say.
Luckily for us, many sportsbooks offer look-ahead odds for every game on the schedule. I’ve combed the entire NFL odds board — from Week 1 to Week 18 — and highlighted 10 NFL spot bets you should circle for the 2024 season.
Ten NFL spot bets you should target
Washington Commanders: Week 4 @ Arizona (+2.5, 45)
Is “revenge” enough to overcome a gnarly schedule spot in Week 4?
New OC Kliff Kingsbury returns to the desert to face his former team but does so on a short week. The Washington Commanders play in Cincinnati on Monday night in Week 3, leaving little turnaround time for this cross-country trek. To make matters worse, Washington is playing its third road game in the first four weeks, when players are still working their way into proper game shape.
The Arizona Cardinals contrast that early grind with Week 4 serving as their third straight home game. This spread currently sits just short of a field goal but will likely go +3 or higher based on Washington’s result in Cincy that Monday.
New Orleans Saints: Week 7 vs. Denver (-3.5, 42.5)
The New Orleans Saints stuff three games into 10 days in October. It’s a nasty schedule spot with a dash of letdown, following two quality foes the two games prior.
New Orleans is at Kansas City for Monday Night Football in Week 5 (+8) and hosts Tampa Bay in Week 6 (-1.5) before a quick turnaround to take on the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 (-3.5).
The Saints are a miserable 6-12-1 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.
Baltimore Ravens: Week 8 @ Cleveland (-1, 45.5)
The Baltimore Ravens are a short road favorite when visiting the rival Cleveland Browns in late October. With Halloween just around the corner, this is a scary spot for the Ravens.
Baltimore will be playing the second of back-to-back road games in Week 8 and doing so on a short week after visiting Tampa Bay for Monday Night Football in Week 7.
This trip to Ohio is also the team’s third road game in four weeks, with Baltimore at Cincinnati in Week 5. The Ravens ran into a similar three-in-four jam last season, getting punked 17-10 at Pittsburgh as 4.5-point road chalk in Week 5.
Houston Texans: Week 9 at N.Y. Jets (+3. 45)
The Houston Texans meet a New York Jets crowd riding the Halloween candy sugar high for TNF on October 31. It’s a short turnaround for what will be the Texans’ third road game in four weeks after visiting New England and Green Bay in Weeks 6 and 7.
The Texans didn’t enjoy their last trip to East Rutherford, losing 30-6 to the Zach Wilson-led Jets last December. It was a cold, rain-soaked matchup in which Stroud went down with a concussion which cost him the following game. In Year 1 under DeMeco Ryans, Houston was 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS as a visitor.
Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 at Denver (-3, 44.5)
The Atlanta Falcons are giving points on the road vs. the Broncos in Week 11. This trip up the mountain is the second of back-to-back road games and their third road outing in four weeks.
Not only do the Falcons fight in the thin, energy-sapping air of Mile High, but there’s a potential look-ahead spot to a bye in Week 12 — especially if things aren’t going over smoothly in 2024.
Minnesota Vikings: Week 12 @ Chicago (+3, 45)
Chicken or fish? The Minnesota Vikings will hear that a lot during the middle of the 2024 schedule. The team travels six times in an eight-game stretch from Week 4 to Week 12, including a London showcase vs. the Jets in Week 5 (followed by a Week 6 bye).
This stop in the Windy City will be Minnesota’s third straight road game after a pair of non-conference visitations at Jacksonville in Week 10 and Tennessee in Week 11. The Chicago Bears, on the other hand, will be enjoying their third straight stint at Soldier Field.
In two years under head coach Kevin O’Connell, the Vikes are 9-7 SU and 8-4-4 ATS on the road. However, he’s only 3-3 SU and ATS in divisional roadies.
Dallas Cowboys: Week 13 vs. N.Y. Giants (-8, 45.5)
The Dallas Cowboys snapped a Thanksgiving Thursday curse with a win and cover in their annual home game last season, improving to 2-11 ATS over the last 13 holidays. This year, Turkey Day cooks up the Cowboys’ biggest spread of the season, laying -8 to the New York Giants in a mid-week matchup.
That divisional dinner comes with a side of “schedule spot,” as Dallas plays its third game in 10 days on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys have a Texas-sized showdown with Houston on Monday Night Football in Week 11, putting them on a short week to travel to Washington in Week 12 and an even tighter turnaround for this Thursday game with New York.
Kansas Chiefs: Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-7.5, 45.5)
It’s “Friday Night Lights” in Arrowhead during the Thanksgiving Weekend, with the Las Vegas Raiders coming to town.
While this is a bit of a revenge spot for the Kansas City Chiefs, who lost to Vegas at home last X-mas, it’s a very challenging schedule spot. Kansas City will play its fifth game in a 25-day window in Week 13, thanks to a Monday game against Tampa Bay in Week 9 and this funky Friday timeslot.
The Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites for this AFC West rivalry and boast a 9-13 ATS mark as a divisional favorite since 2020, including 4-7 ATS as home chalk against AFC West foes.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 16 @ Baltimore (+6, 42.5)
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ harrowing home stretch rears its ugly head most in Week 16.
Trips to Baltimore are always intense, but this Saturday's swing to the DMV will be Pittsburgh’s second straight road outing on a short week and its fifth road game in a span of seven weeks.
Tomlin’s team has been a dog of +6 or higher only 21 times since 2007, and he’s 13-7-1 ATS when catching those big points. He’s also been awesome against the spread in Baltimore, going 11-6 ATS all-time vs. the Ravens on the road.
There’s a look-ahead spot sprinkled on top too, with Kansas City coming to Acrisure Stadium for a Christmas Day date on that following Wednesday. Merry Christmas.
Los Angeles Rams: Week 16 @ N.Y. Jets (+3, 47.5)
The average temperature in East Rutherford sits between 32 and 40 degrees on December 22. That’s when the Los Angeles Rams visit the Jets in Week 16.
Not only is Los Angeles battling the elements in a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT back home), but also a tight schedule spot that has the team playing back-to-back road games and three road dates in four weeks.
The one positive in this spot is Los Angeles will have a mini bye to prep for this cross-country trip after visiting San Francisco on Thursday in Week 15.
