This week's NFC East clash between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders has seen money pour in on the Over, driving the total up to 43.5 from the opening number of 41.5.
I'm going against that line movement with my favorite Week 2 total bets because I can't see many points being put on the board in a quarterback duel between Daniel Jones and rookie Jayden Daniels. Read on to find out what my other two favorite NFL picks are in the Over/Under markets this Sunday.
Week 2 totals bets
- Giants vs Commanders u43.5 (-110 at bet365)
- 49ers vs Vikings o46.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
- Bears vs Texas u45.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 2 Over/Under picks
Over/Under bet #1: Giants vs Commanders u43.5 (-110 at bet365)
Money has poured in on the Over in this game, moving the total up to 43.5 from the opening number of 41.5. However, I'm going against the line movement because I can't get on board with backing the Over in a quarterback duel between Daniel Jones and a rookie.
Sure this Washington Commanders defense is terrible but the New York Giants don't have the weapons to take advantage. Jones is coming off a horrific game where he completed just 22 of 43 passes for 186 yards with two picks against the Vikings. It doesn't help that Devin Singletary is his running back and rookie Malik Nabers his only quality receiver.
On the other side of the ball, New York's secondary is a mess, but the front seven has talented players like Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Bobby Okereke. Washington's Jayden Daniels was the most impressive rookie QB in Week 1, but that's not saying much.
Daniels completed 17 of 24 passes for 184 yards, which sounds pretty good until you realize how short his passes were. Only seven of those catches and 55 of those yards went to wide receivers and his 1.6 average completed air yards was easily the lowest in the league. That unwillingness to attack downfield means that Daniels won't expose New York's defensive backfield.
It's also worth nothing that despite both teams getting blown out in Week 1, they played at a pace that was right around league average. They should play even slower in what is expected to be a close contest here.
Over/Under bet #2: 49ers vs Vikings o46.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Despite missing Christian McCaffrey against a tough Jets defense last week, the San Francisco 49ers rolled up 401 yards and 32 points. They'll keep firing on all cylinders versus a Minnesota Vikings defense that shouldn't be overestimated after holding the Giants to just six points last week.
The Giants offense is simply that bad and Jones has always struggled against the blitz. On the other hand, Niners QB Brock Purdy had the third-highest offensive grade (85.7) in the NFL when blitzed last year, so expect plenty of success against a blitz-happy Brian Flores defense.
On the other side of the ball, San Francisco's defense hasn't looked quite as dominant since losing DeMeco Ryans as it's defensive coordinator before the 2023 season. They limited the Jets to 19 points last week but ranked 21st in defensive success rate and just 29th in dropback success rate.
There were plenty of concerns about this Vikings offense entering the season but Sam Darnold was highly efficient in Week 1, completing 19 of 24 passes for 208 yards while new running back Aaron Jones picked up 94 yards on the ground.
With Minnesota boasting one of the best receivers in the league in Justin Jefferson, this attack will exceed preseason expectations.
Over/Under bet #3: Bears vs Texans u45.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Caleb Williams will show improvement as the season goes on but don't expect him to make a huge leap from Week 1 to Week 2.
The No. 1 draft pick completed just 47% of his passes for 93 yards against the Titans last week. Despite the Chicago Bears throwing the ball 29 times in that contest, Williams attempted just six passes of 10+ yards downfield, completing two of them for 24 yards.
The Bears ended up winning that game 24-17 but both of their touchdowns came off returns from their defense and special teams. Expectations were high for the Bears offense after adding Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D'Andre Swift in the offseason, but it's clear that we have to temper that moving forward especially with Allen and Odunze banged up.
On the other side of the ball, things are far more optimistic for Chicago. The Bears were third in the NFL in defensive EPA after Week 10 last year and they really excelled on the back end. That continued into Week 1 of this year as they held Will Levis to just 127 passing yards on 32 attempts. They won't be quite as dominant against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, but they should be able to at least slow them down.
The Texans were more than comfortable leaning on the run to churn out 213 yards on the ground and control the ball for 40 minutes last week. The same run-heavy game-plan should work against a Bears stop unit that allowed the Titans to rush for 140 yards on 26 carries.
With both passing games set to underperform and the Texans likely leaning on their ground game, the Under is the play.
Not intended for use in MA.
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