The Houston Texans come to Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday for a gut-check game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Houston is out to prove it belongs in the AFC title conversation, and my Texans vs. Chiefs predictions explain why Joe Mixon is the key to the visitors' success.
Here are my best NFL picks for December 21.
Texans vs Chiefs prediction
My best bet
Joe Mixon Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Houston Texans are going to need a big day from running back Joe Mixon, especially on the ground.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be coming after QB C.J. Stroud with one of the more blitz-happy schemes in the NFL. In order to keep that defense honest and play a little “keep-away” from Mahomes & Co., offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik will be calling on No. 28 early and often.
Mixon sits 10th in total rushing attempts despite playing in only 11 games due to injury. He’s made the most of those carries, running for 910 yards — including seven games of 100+ gains on the ground.
He carried the ball only 12 times in the win over Miami last Sunday (picking up just 23 yards) due to suffering an ankle injury on a hip-drop tackle. That forced him on the sideline for a while and stunted his production on the ground once he returned.
Mixon popped up on the Texans’ injury report this week, nursing that sore ankle. But his limited work in practice is just for rest and recovery purposes, as the running back says he’ll definitely play on Saturday.
Kansas City’s run defense has gotten pushed around in recent weeks, allowing 538 total rushing yards over the past five games, with foes picking up 4.4 yards per carry. Last week, Cleveland carried the ball just 21 times for 139 yards rushing.
Mixon normally sees close to 20 rushing attempts per game and the Week 16 player projections come in around that average, with a very positive forecast for his yardage on Saturday.
Mixon’s models range from 69 yards to a ceiling of 87 yards against the Chiefs, with my number coming out to 78 yards on the ground from the veteran RB. That’s well beyond his rushing yard total for Week 16, with the Over/Under at 60.5 yards.
Texans vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Joe Mixon 50+ rushing yards
DeAndre Hopkins 50+ receiving yards
Kansas City Chiefs moneyline
Mixon will get plenty of carries and some projections have him flirting with more than 80 yards on the ground.
DeAndre Hopkins has quickly become one of Mahomes’ favorite targets. His forecasts call for more than 50 yards through the air against his former club.
Kansas City has played in a lot of tight games, so we’ll sidestep the growing spread and take the home team to win outright on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Chiefs odds
Texans vs Chiefs live odds
Texans vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Houston -2.5 (-115) | Kansas City +2.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Houston -140 | Kansas City +115
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Texans vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- The look-ahead line for this AFC clash was Kansas City -3.5 before Mahomes injured his ankle in Week 15. The official opening odds hit the board with Houston as a 2.5-point road favorite and jumped to -3 before sharp money bought back KC at the field goal.
- The total opened at 40.5 points and slipped as low as 39.5 O/U. Upon Mahomes’ updated status, the number jumped to 43.5 before buyback on the Under trimmed the total to the current spot of 41.5 points.
- According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are on the Texans, while 51% of total picks are taking the Over. However, the bulk of those selections came in when Mahomes was questionable, and the Texans were favorites.
Texans vs Chiefs betting trend to know
The Houston Texans are 4-13 Over/Under in outdoor games the past three seasons, including 3-8 O/U the past two years (since draft Stroud) and 1-3 O/U outside in 2024. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chiefs.
Texans vs Chiefs game info
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Texans vs Chiefs latest injuries
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