In the land of "hot takes," the patient bettor is king.
Today’s sports landscape is drowning with hair-trigger judgments and social media is holding that firehose of opinioned diarrhea.
There’s no better example of this overreaction than Week 2 of the NFL season. Teams that were championed in the summer months are instantly downgraded to "dead to me" status after a bad showing in their season opener.
Some of these abrupt assumptions are simply for shock value because that’s what gets eyeballs. But there’s no denying their impact on the NFL odds because that’s the baseline for oddsmakers each week: market perception.
As someone who treats Week 1 results the same way I do Indian food — with cautious intrigue — I love taking advantage of those knee-jerks in the Week 2 odds.
Buying back which teams are "bad" in the eyes of the betting public has proved profitable for this column in the second week of the schedule. Since 2015, Week 2 underdogs — the so-called bad teams (or at least the worst one that week) — have covered at a 57% rate. And since 2020, Week 2 pups are cashing a 59.5% clip.
So, go ahead and fire off a tweet about how the Bengals need to trade Joe Burrow or that Caleb Williams is the biggest bust in NFL history. Let it fly. I’ll be patiently waiting for kickoff with all those extra points in hand with my NFL picks.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 1-2 ATS
NFL Week 2 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Buffalo Bills (+2) at Miami Dolphins pick
Most folks tabbed the Buffalo Bills to take a step back in 2024, including yours truly. But I’m not downgrading Buffalo as much as others, especially after the close shave versus Arizona in Week 1.
The Bills came away with a six-point win (falling short of -6.5) but that final score was misleading and should have been something like 34-17 or at least a 10-point victory.
A botched unnecessary roughness call from the officials on a third down gift-wrapped the Cardinals’ first score, and Arizona would also add a special-teams TD on the league’s new "dynamic" kickoff setup, giving it 28 points on the day.
The same goes for the Miami Dolphins’ last-minute 20-17 victory over Jacksonville.
Miami was the beneficiary of a 14-point swing on two plays late in the third quarter: a Jaguars fumble on the goal line for a touchback and a Tyreek Hill 80-yard footrace for a touchdown. If Travis Etienne didn’t order extra butter on his popcorn that afternoon, the Fins are likely looking at a 24-something loss in Week 1 and this Thursday Night Football spread would be very different.
The one thing keeping this point spread anchored in favor of the home side is Josh Allen’s hand injury, which is on his non-throwing hand and isn’t enough to keep him out of practice this week.
I really like Buffalo’s offense this season, with the Bills trading out the speedsters for a towering receiving corps that could stand with the starting frontcourt of most Division-I basketball teams. Allen hit nine different targets and six of those guys had 19 yards or more on Sunday.
Miami’s pass defense didn’t rank well against Jacksonville, sitting 24th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Fins have injury issues on the short week as well, with standouts like Jalen Ramsey, Jaelan Phillips, and David Long Jr. nursing ailments.
PICK: Bills +2 (-105 at bet365)
Cincinnati Bengals (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs picks
How much is a loss to the New England Patriots worth to the point spread? According to the look-ahead line for this exciting AFC rivalry, about 2.5 points.
Back in the summer, this Week 2 gem listed the Cincinnati Bengals as 3.5-point pups at the Kansas City Chiefs. But after Cincy shit the bed at home in Week 1 — and KC was a toenail away from defeat versus Baltimore — the official Week 2 opener handed six points to Joe Burrow & Co.
For one reason or the other, slow starts have kind of been the trend in the Burrow era. This year, it was a rag-tag receiving corps. Tyler Boyd left in free agency, Tee Higgins was out with bum hamstring, and Ja’Marr Chase’s status was up on the air until warmups due to his hold-out and an illness.
Sprinkle in two bad fumbles — one on a punt return that handed the Pats three points and another on the goal line that took away a TD — along with a dash of look-ahead spot, with the reigning Super Bowl champs on deck, and you can see why the Bengals bungled the start of the season yet again.
Regardless, I’m high on Cincinnati this season and refused to demote it outside of my Top 10 when asked to rank the NFL after Week 1 by our social media team. I even caught some flack from my fellow Covers analysts for it.
I’ll tell you what I told them. It’s one game.
Burrow's Bengals have been a thorn in the side of Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs and are one of the rare teams (maybe the only team) not rattled by playing in Arrowhead — AKA "Burrowhead".
Nothing wakes you up like a loss to the worst team in football. Cincy goes from nasty to classy on the sked and covers with those bonus points on Sunday.
PICK: Bengals +6 (-110 at BetMGM)
Chicago Bears (+7) at Houston Texans pick
The Chicago Bears handed me one of my worst beats in recent memory in Week 1. On second thought, I should say the Titans did it after coughing up a 17-0 lead as 4.5-point pups to lose 24-17. That was the difference between going 2-1 and 1-2 with my column picks.
This Sunday, I’m siding with Chicago, which is catching a cool touchdown at Houston in the night game.
The Bears’ bad start to Week 1 was fueled by a botched punt return that helped put them behind big at the half. That, in turn, put a lot of pressure on rookie QB Caleb Williams, who was making his first pro start. Chicago had to go pass-heavy in the final 30 minutes against an underrated Tennessee defense that was out for blood under aggressive new DC Dennard Wilson.
Williams didn’t live up to the hype, finishing his debut as the worst-rated QB in Week 1, according to many advanced metrics. Luckily, the Bears defense is doing something special.
Since Week 12 of last season, Chicago’s stop unit has been a Top 10 group in EPA allowed per play while also causing chaos with game-changing plays. That level of disruption was still there in Week 1, with the Bears recording three sacks, grabbing two interceptions and a fumble all while pitching a shutout in the second half.
A defense like that will always give you a chance to win — or at least cover (see: Pittsburgh). That’s especially true when the betting markets are overreacting to those opening results and throwing a touchdown at you instead of the +3.5 that was there on the look-ahead line this summer.
The Houston Texans came out on the right side of a shootout with Indianapolis, leaving questions about this passing defense as well as the offensive line. Second-year QB C.J. Stroud was under pressure on 34% of snaps and was sacked four times. He also had a couple of balls destined for interceptions, but the football gods (and refs) smiled upon him.
He won’t be so lucky against this Bears’ ball-hawking secondary on Sunday night. I like Da Bears as big dogs and I'll be sniffing around the Stroud INT props when those come out later in the week.
PICK: Bears +7 (-115 at Pinnacle)
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