The 2024 NFL season is almost here, and I’ve got a handful of futures bets to lock in before the action starts. Coaching and quarterback play go hand-in-hand with winning, and there are a number of teams showing value in the win total markets.
Here are my top NFL picks for the season, led by three NFC West predictions.
Best NFL win total bets for 2024
Broncos Over 5.5 wins (+105)
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton handpicked quarterback Bo Nix 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, and I’m expecting the rookie’s arm talent to be a fit for an offense requiring precision and timing. The Broncos also return four starters on the offensive line, and the rushing game should both insulate Nix’s growing pains and complement the quick-hitting passing attack.
Still, it’s the defense that is going to do the heavy lifting for this Over. On the surface Denver was a mess defensively in 2023, but multiple tough games against elite offenses skew the year-long numbers. Denver held its opponent under 25 points in 10 of 17 games, including eight straight from Weeks 6 through 14 when the Broncos went 6-2.
While the Broncos lost multiple veterans on the defensive side of the ball, I’m anticipating the unit to play better than the sum of its parts in Year 2 under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph. There’s already a blueprint for success, after all.
Ultimately, though, this is a bet on Payton preventing the Broncos from dipping too far from last season’s 8-9 record in what appears on the surface to be a rebuilding year.
Pick: Broncos Over 5.5 wins (+105 at BetMGM)
Seahawks Under 7.5 wins (+124)
Bye, bye, Pete Carroll. Hello, Mike Macdonald.
The Seattle Seahawks begin a new era after 14 years with Carroll at the helm, and I’m anticipating plenty of turbulence during Macdonald’s first go around calling the shots. First-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb is also making the jump from the NCAA to the highest level, so there’s a lot of uncertainty on both sides of the ball.
Of course, there’s also the uncertainty of whether quarterback Geno Smith’s breakout 2022 season was nothing more than a flash in the pan. I’m skeptical given his long-standing body of work suggests he’s a replacement-level talent, at best. Plus, Smith already missed time in training camp with knee and hip injuries.
Additionally, Seattle lines up against multiple powerhouse offenses and also hits the highway for five of its final eight games following its Week 10 bye. The gauntlet has the Seahawks trading as an underdog in lookahead markets in all but five games.
Pick: Seahawks Under 7.5 wins (+124 at Caesars)
Rams Under 8.5 wins (+140)
The 2023 Los Angeles Rams overachieved, and I’m anticipating the loss of generational-star Aaron Donald to be a colossal hit to their inexperienced defense in 2024. Los Angeles has the on-paper talent to replicate last year’s offensive success, but the game’s played on the field, and 36-year-old quarterback Matthew Stafford already missed time in training camp with a hamstring injury.
Let’s not forget, the Rams are also just a year removed from a 5-12 season, and Stafford was limited to just nine starts. If he misses time or has to play through an injury, the losses will pile up in bunches. I’m also expecting L.A. to be behind the eight-ball in a hurry with a tough opening schedule that includes three road games and home tilts against the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers.
Pick: Rams Under 8.5 wins (+140 at Caesars)
49ers Over 11.5 wins (+120)
I’m not expecting any hangover from the San Francisco 49ers following their Super Bowl LVIII loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Niners remain the toast of the NFC, and they’ve gone 25-9 the past two years with head coach Kyle Shanahan running a tight ship. San Fran also had an NFL-high nine Pro Bowlers in 2023, and all nine are back in the fold.
The offense looks set to return all 11 starters with wideout Brandon Aiyuk appearing less and less likely to be dealt, and there’s also potential for improvement with quarterback Brock Purdy entering his second full season behind center. While there has been more turnover on the defensive side of the ball, there's still no shortage of star power.
Additionally, the 49ers are a preseason favorite in all 17 games, and as discussed, I’m not optimistic about the outlook for the division rival Rams or Seahawks. Finally, facing the Chiefs and Detroit Lions at home – and on added rest – also softens the schedule.
Pick: 49ers Over 11.5 wins (+120 at FanDuel)
Steelers Under 8.5 wins (-144)
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a losing season during his 17-year tenure, and he’s never lost more than eight games in a season. I’m skeptical the stretch continues, and I position Pittsburgh in the basement of the strong AFC North.
Quarterback play is the biggest question mark for Pittsburgh, and the offseason additions of starter Russell Wilson and backup Justin Fields don’t provide a reliable answer. The defense projects to remain among the league’s best units, but if the offense can’t move the ball or stay on the field, it’s going to be another long season for the Pitt stop unit.
Another big concern with the Steelers is that all six of their divisional games are in the final eight weeks, and they also have a road game against the Philadelphia Eagles and home date with the Kansas City Chiefs mixed in. It’s a nightmare finish, so there’s no time to ease into the season, and it doesn’t help that Wilson missed time during camp with a calf injury.
Pick: Steelers Under 8.5 wins (-144 at FanDuel)
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