Defying all the gloomy predictions, the New England Patriots were a surprise story in Week 1, but they could come crashing back to earth against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.
Though New England played spoiler last weekend against Cincinnati, it’s hard to look past Seattle’s well-balanced offensive firepower — and my Seahawks vs Patriots picks lean firmly towards the visitors.
Find out more in my NFL picks for September 15.
Seahawks vs Patriots prediction
My best bet
Seahawks team total Over 20.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s going to take a few weeks to form a full picture of the Seattle Seahawks offense under first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. After a calamitous start to Week 1 against Denver, there were encouraging signs in the second half as the Seahawks put up 17 points and scored on three straight drives.
That’s the kind of production I’m buying into here. With DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba poised to stretch a talented New England Patriots secondary, and a running game that should still have bite even if Zach Charbonnet is deputizing for Kenneth Walker III, I like Seattle’s chances of hitting the Over on 20.5 points.
I’m also skeptical about the Patriots’ ability to play turnover-free football for a second straight week behind a below-average offensive line. The Seahawks came away with two picks and a fumble recovery against Denver, and the defensive line looks revived since Mike Macdonald’s arrival. That feels like a recipe for good field position in Foxborough.
On the heels of Week 1 missteps, Seattle’s own offensive line issues are the biggest red flag here on this cross-country trip, but it’s not as if New England had Joe Burrow running for his life last Sunday. Burrow was only pressured on six of his 35 dropbacks, and Geno Smith has the weapons to pick on mismatches in a way that we didn’t see from Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase-centric passing game.
Week 1 was the perfect game script for New England — get the lead, protect the ball, and make stops defensively. However, the Seahawks are built to win contests like this, and the visitors should produce enough lengthy drives to cash this prop.
Seahawks vs Patriots same-game parlay
Seahawks team total Over 20.5
Seahawks -3.5
Tyler Lockett Over 44.5 receiving yards
I’m doubling down on the Seahawks by picking Macdonald’s men to cover the spread too. I was on Seattle in Week 1 for the same reasons — the bigger talent edge, the smoother passing game, and a souped-up defense ready to shine.
The spread has wavered between -3 and -4 all week, so look out for it to dip again before kick-off, and there’s value in laying the -3.5 against a New England team that looks shaky in pass protection and short on big-play receivers to make Jacoby Brissett’s life easier.
On the flip side, Jerod Mayo had to love what he saw from his secondary last weekend, but the variety in the Seattle passing game should prompt bigger headaches in Week 2.
Metcalf will see plenty of New England’s standout corner Christian Gonzalez, so I’m picking Lockett to carry on where he left off in Week 1. The veteran wideout had the game-sealing grab on the way to six catches for 77 yards against the Broncos.
Even in his tenth NFL season, Lockett remains a reliable option for Smith with his ability to create separation. Last weekend, the former Pro Bowler didn’t appear limited by the hip pain that plagued him during the preseason, and this 44.5 O/U line is manageable for him on just a handful of targets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Seahawks vs Patriots odds
Seahawks vs Patriots live odds
Seahawks vs Patriots opening odds
- Spread: Seattle +4 (-110) | New England +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Seattle -200 | New England +165
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110) | Under 40.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Seahawks vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Patriots were 5-12 ATS last season, and that partly explains why they’re home underdogs here.
- The Seahawks are 12-8 SU in their last 20 games, and they’ve won the past two meetings between these teams, though the last matchup came in 2020.
- The Under is 14-6 in New England’s past 20 games and should be a popular pick with the hosts’ emphasis on long, run-heavy drives.
- Brissett didn’t complete a pass for more than 20 yards in Week 1, while Smith went 18-for-24 against the Broncos after throwing an interception on the opening drive.
Seahawks vs Patriots betting trend to know
Seattle saved its best football for the third quarter in Week 1, and the visitors have covered the 3Q spread in 13 of their last 17 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Seahawks vs. Patriots.
Seahawks vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Seahawks vs Patriots latest injuries
Seahawks vs Patriots weather
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