It’s a massive AFC showdown at Paycor Stadium Monday night as the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals both put their lengthy winning streaks on the line in Week 17’s marquee game.
Joe Burrow will get a full stable of pass-catchers, which is something he hasn’t been able to say in while despite his team stacking wins. We could see some rain, but the wind (the more important factor) won't be an issue.
Here is my NFL prop picks for Monday Night Football’s battle between the Bills and Bengals. Also, be sure to check out Jason Logan's full MNF betting preview.
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Bills vs Bengals props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Bengals MNF props
Sir Mixon-a-lot
Joe Mixon has three games under his belt since dealing with a concussion but the heavily used back looks ready to take on a big workload after a 23-touch Week 16 and out-touching Samaje Perine, who had three carries and three catches.
Mixon has been extremely busy in the passing game, with 15 targets over the last two games, which he's turned into 12 catches for 76 yards. That’s good for a 17% target share, which is a big number, considering Austin Ekeler leads all backs with a 19.6% target share on the season.
Mixon’s receiving total sits at 23.5, with the market moving north. It’s an increase of four yards from last week but the RB has seen a higher total in three of his last six games so bettors aren’t getting an inflated number here.
The Bengals aren’t a heavy screen rate team but Mixon’s targets are more based on routes run and averages 20.0 per game. He also ranks as the fifth-most targeted back per game.
Free safety Jordan Poyer is playing through a knee injury and was DNP at practice Friday. Three-down linebacker Matt Milano is also playing through a knee injury.
With Mixon back to full health and ready to play 65-plus percent of the snaps, his Over 23.5 receiving yards is a play for me Monday night. The running back has had at least 30 receiving yards in six of his last seven games which have all varied in game script.
Joe Mixon Prop: Over 23.5 receiving yards (-114)
Careless whisper
Josh Allen’s recent struggles are no secret. Since beating the Chiefs in Week 6, he ranks as a Bottom-10 quarterback in turnovers (12), passer rating (85.5), completion percentage (60.6%), and yards per attempt (6.9).
His prop market reflected this. It was as low as 244.5 passing yards before money came in on the Over, driving it as high as 260.5, which evaporated most of the value. However, one market certainly has my attention, and that’s his interception market.
Allen has been more than careless with the ball as he leads all QBs in turnovers since Week 7 with 12 — nine of those being interceptions. Now he has a pace-up spot for the Bills with both teams sitting in the Top 10 in plays per game. Per Player Profiler, no QB has more danger plays than Allen, who has also thrown the second-most interceptable passes.
Allen could also find himself passing more due to game script, as the Bills enter as a slight favorite but have closed as a heavy favorite (6.5 points or more) in eight of their last nine games.
Stefon Diggs has been dealing with an illness all week but practiced Friday while the Bengals’ pass rush could look legit if Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard (questionable) can both suit up.
Josh Allen Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-128)
It’s a go with Joe
Joe Burrow will have the healthiest group of pass-catchers he’s seen in a while. Tight end Hayden Hurst looks ready to return and he’ll join Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Trenton Irwin, and Mixon, who all enter Week 17 healthy with no designations.
Burrow will face a Buffalo defense that sits 23rd in EPA/play since Week 9 and is still dealing with injuries. Poyer was DNP at practice Friday and is dealing with a knee injury, as is Milano, who is a great coverage 'backer. This is on top of the absences of DBs Micah Hyde and Christian Benford as well as Von Miller.
The Bills have also seen Mike White and Justin Fields in two of their last three games, and need to contain Burrow, who is completing 69% of his passes during his team’s seven-game winning streak and averaging 275 yards passing.
The Cincy quarterback has seen some money come in on his passing yards total to the Over that has moved from the low 270s. THE BLITZ is projecting just over 300 passing yards.
With the number of healthy weapons he’s bringing to the table Monday night, this number should be higher than 277.5 which is the same number it was vs. Cleveland and Tampa Bay when Burrow didn’t have all his healthy pass-catchers.
Joe Burrow Prop: Over 277.5 passing yards (-114)
