Bills vs Bengals Monday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Davis is Due Against Cincinnati

The year 2023 may only be two days old when the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals battle on Monday Night Football, but this elite AFC encounter has “Game of the Year” vibes all over it.

Buffalo is the front-runner to win the Super Bowl and currently leads the conference heading into Week 17. Cincinnati is the hottest team in the NFL right now, having won seven straight games while covering the points spread in each one of those victories.

NFL odds are calling for an all-time outing on Monday Night Football, with a slim spread and high total. I break it all down and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Bills vs. Bengals on January 2.

Also, be sure to check out Josh Inglis' favorite MNF prop picks and our Joe Burrow spotlight props.

Editor's note: Welcome to regulated sports betting, Ohio! Check out the best betting sites in Ohio and the best Ohio sports betting bonuses and promo codes! 

Bills vs Bengals best odds

Bills vs Bengals picks and predictions

I do have plenty of action stacking up for this prime-time affair. If you read my NFL Underdogs column, I grabbed +2.5 with the Bengals early in the week, and if you listened to “The Sharp 600” podcast on Friday, I also bet Joe Burrow to go Over 13.5 yards rushing. But it’s not all Bengals love.

While Cincinnati has a star-studded receiving corps, the Bills' top targets are nothing to scoff at. That group has been elevated with the improving play from WR2 Gabe Davis, who will be counted on a lot Monday night.

Considering the high total, Cincy’s sensational offense, and the fact the Bengals' defense is sound at stopping the run, the game script calls for plenty of passing from Josh Allen. A primetime slot would normally shine the spotlight on WR1 Stefon Diggs. However, Diggs has been somewhat quiet — by his standards — in recent weeks.

He was targeted only twice in last week’s win at Chicago and has just 10 total catches on 16 targets in the past three games. Diggs is also coming off an illness this week, and the Bills have been downplaying his demotion in targets, telling the media that Diggs is fine with this lack of action as the offense takes what the defense is giving them — rather than force it to its top playmaker.

Benefitting from Diggs’ downtick is Gabe Davis, who’s also been targeted 16 times for 10 catches in the past three games, posting receiving totals of 45, 56, and 31 yards. And if Buffalo is taking what the Cincinnati defense is giving them, then consider the fact that the Bengals are No. 8 in DVOA defending WR1s but 31st in DVOA versus WR2s this season.

Cincy is allowing an average of almost 54 yards per game to those second-option receivers — compared to just 62.4 yards per game to WR1s — and has recently watched their rivals’ WR2s like Kendrick Bourne (100 yards), Chris Godwin (83 yards), Donovan Peoples-Jones (114 yards), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (71 yards) have outstanding efforts.

That makes the Over on Davis’ receiving yards prop total a tempting wager at Over 40.5. The Central Florida product has topped his individual receiving yards O/U in back-to-back games (totals of 35.5 yards) and isn’t seeing much of an increase for Week 17, considering the game script calling for pass-happy playbooks and plenty of points from both sides.

And while Diggs is renowned for his performances in primetime, Davis has emerged as a playmaker in big games in his short time with Buffalo. This season, he posted 88 yards versus the Rams in Week 1, 74 yards against Kansas City in Week 6, 93 yards versus Minnesota in Week 10, and 56 yards against Miami in Week 15. Plus, let’s not forget his coming out party with 201 yards versus the Chiefs in the playoffs last year.

Davis’ receiving yards total is as low as 40.5 but sits as high as 44.5 yards at many other books as we close in on the Week 17 finale. I’d be comfortable taking the Over on any number at 47.5 or shorter.

My best bet: Gabe Davis Over 40.5 receiving yards (-114)

Bills vs Bengals spread analysis

The spread for this Week 17 finale opened as big as Buffalo -2.5 last Sunday, with the Bills breaking away from the Bears in the fourth quarter and the Bengals surviving a late push from the Patriots for their seventh straight win.

Other books opened Buffalo as a 1.5-point road favorite and that quickly slimmed with early money on red-hot Cincinnati, moving this spread to Buffalo -1 and as low as a pick’em at some shops. As of Sunday morning, the market consensus is Bills -1, with Covers Consensus showing 59% of picks on the home underdog.

According to BetMGM books, the ticket count is relatively split between these two AFC powers (Bengals 51% of bets), but the money is leaning toward Buffalo with 62% of the handle on the visitor.

Cincinnati is one of the rare offenses that can go tit-for-tat with the Buffalo attack, and enters Week 17 as the best offense in the second half of the schedule according to the EPA per play rankings. The Bengals are the biggest challenge the Bills' defense has faced in a while.

The same can be said about the Bills' offense, which may not be putting up the same points it did in the first half of the season but still ranks out No. 11 in EPA per play since Week 9. The Bengals have scored their last three wins over struggling offenses in Tampa Bay, New England, and Cleveland, but this group did limit Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 24 points on 349 yards at home back in Week 13.

The betting results for these two teams are contrasting in the second chunk of the schedule. Cincy has reeled off seven straight wins against the spread since Week 9, while Buffalo has managed to cover only three times in its last eight games. This included just getting past the point spread thanks to a last-minute surge in Chicago last week.

Bills vs Bengals Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under total for this Monday matchup opened at 49.5 points and has flirted with 50 points at a few shops before being bet back to the opener. According to BetMGM, 73% of bet count and 71% of the money is on the Over, and prime-time games do draw more Over action from the betting public, so this total could be on the rise before kickoff.

The high number is warranted, considering the firepower on the field. Cincinnati has been pouring on the points and doing so against some solid stop units during its winning streak. Since Week 9, the Bengals are the top team in EPA per play with a dangerous trio of receivers and skill players around Burrow.

Allen and the Bills can push the pace with a quicker offense that gets to the line of scrimmage fast. Buffalo is No. 3 in DVOA, with the passing offense as the biggest threat. It sits No. 4 in points per play and has been especially sharp inside the red zone in the past three games, scoring a touchdown on 80% of those visits inside its opponent’s 20-yard line. 

However, the reason this total won’t tip past the 50-point mark is two sound defenses that have kept Under profits flowing for two clubs best known for their offense. Cincinnati enters Week 17 at 5-9-1 to the Over/Under, while Buffalo is 5-10 O/U on the year.

The Bills' stop unit hasn’t been as stout in the second half of the season but still does the big things right: getting foes off the field on third down, slamming the door in the red zone, and creating pressure on passers without needing to blitz.

The Bengals’ stop unit may not get the same praise as Burrow & Co., but defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has constantly risen to the occasion against elite quarterbacks like Allen. His scheming was the backbone of the Bengals’ Super Bowl run last year and has come up big in “playoff-like" spots versus Kansas City and Tennessee this season.

The Bengals' defense has been especially tough at home, with a No. 7 ranked DVOA inside Paycor Stadium.

Bills vs Bengals same-game parlay

Davis Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110) + Bengals +1.5 (-125) + Burrow Over 13.5 rushing yards (-110)

With the Bills spreading the ball around and the Bengals doing a great job on WR1s, Davis gets his chance to top this yardage total. Given the tight spread and quality of the teams, this game could come down to which team can get those tough yards on key downs. Burrow has been able to break off gains on the ground in these “playoff-like” matchups.

We rarely get points with the team playing as well as the Bengals, especially at home. The half-point hook is a must-have considering this could be a one-point nail bitter.

MNF SGP odds: +550 at bet365

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bills vs Bengals betting trend to know

Road favorites are 54-33-2 SU this season but just 37-49-3 ATS, covering just 43% of the time. Those games with road chalk have also produced a 28-58-3 Over/Under, going Under the total at a 67% clip. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Bengals.

Bills vs Bengals game info

Bills vs Bengals latest injuries

Bills vs Bengals weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Pages related to this topic