For the fourth time in the past five postseasons, the Buffalo Bills battle the Kansas City Chiefs when these heated rivals meet in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday.
Oddsmakers opened Kansas City as a slim favorite at home for this 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff. And while the Chiefs have gotten the best of the Bills in those past three playoff encounters, Buffalo did beat K.C. 30-21 as a 2.5-point chalk in Orchard Park back in Week 11.
I run down the opening odds and give my early Bills vs. Chiefs predictions and NFL picks for January 26.
Bills vs Chiefs predictions
Early spread lean
Bills +2 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Books opened with the Kansas City Chiefs as 1.5-point home favorites, and that has jumped to -2.5 with early play on Kansas City as of late Monday morning. I do expect support on the Buffalo Bills later in the week, so this line could shorten closer to the weekend.
Kansas City’s win over the Houston Texans on Saturday didn’t impress much. The Chiefs were outgained on offense and needed some big plays by the defense and special teams to secure a spot in the conference title game.
Buffalo also needed game-changing plays from the defense to get past the Baltimore Ravens, with fumbles, interceptions, and bad drops bailing out a Bills offense that averaged only 4.6 yards per play.
As the spread would indicate, this game is almost too close to call. I will give Kansas City the edge on defense, with Steve Spagnuolo’s stop unit playing at a high level as always in the postseason. The Bills get a nod on offense, at least based on their overall results, which ranks them No. 2 in EPA per play.
If you like Buffalo, you’d want to take this spread now at +2 or +2.5 as I predict action on the Bills shortening the spread closer to kickoff. But if you’re riding with the Chiefs, wait and see if you can get a better spread on the home team later in the week.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 48 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This Over/Under opened between 47.5 and 48.5 points on Sunday night, and we’re seeing a market consensus settle in at 48 points. I bet the Under 48.5 on the opener, based on a few things we saw from these teams in the Divisional Round.
As mentioned, neither offense looked great in the second-round wins. Kansas City didn’t have much beyond Patrick Mahomes hitting TE Travis Kelce in key spots and the offense flopped in the red zone, scoring a touchdown only twice in five RZ trips.
The Bills were run-heavy against Baltimore and Josh Allen attempted only 22 pass attempts to 36 handoffs. Outside of a 34-yard long, the air attack didn’t show up, beyond WR Khalil Shakir drawing seven targets. The next most targeted WR was Mack Hollins with just two balls his way.
I expect more of the same from the Bills in Arrowhead this Sunday. Buffalo took to the ground in the Week 11 win against the Chiefs and will look to control pace and possession in an effort to keep pass pressure off Josh Allen and park Mahomes & Co. on the sideline. That means short gains with the clock stopped.
We’ve seen some bigger scoring days when these AFC powers collided in the past, with five of their last seven head-to-head matchups going Over the total. However, these offenses are constructed differently in 2024-25, with the Chiefs and Bills less reliant on downfield strikes than in past years.
Kansas City is 1-6 O/U in its last seven home playoff games and I see this being more a defensive grinder than a shootout on Sunday night.
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Bills vs Chiefs live odds
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