The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins both needed come-from-behind victories in Week 1, setting up what looks like another close contest for Thursday Night Football.
The NFL Week 2 odds have the Dolphins as slim home favorites, with the Monday morning markets ranging from -1 to -2. This is a huge game for these AFC East rivals, and my Bills vs. Dolphins predictions back the slim underdogs to get the inside track on a tight divisional race.
I size up the opening odds, early movement, and outstanding edges as I give my early lean on NFL picks for September 12.
Bills vs Dolphins predictions
Early spread lean
Buffalo +2 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Buffalo Bills got a scare from the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, rallying back from a 17-3 hole to earn a 34-28 win in Orchard Park.
The Cardinals’ 28 points don’t look great on this Buffalo defence, but half of those tallies came due to weird circumstances, and this six-point game could have easily been a 34-17 victory for Bills Mafia. That would have this Week 2 spread looking very different.
For one, Arizona scored a kickoff return touchdown with the new “dynamic” rules and swirling winds aiding in that special teams strike. Another note comes on the Cardinals’ opening score, in which the Bills were handed a phantom unnecessary roughness penalty on a third and 13, which flipped a likely Arizona field goal from the 25-yard line into a touchdown.
The Miami Dolphins squeaked out a 20-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 1. Much like the Bills’ box score, that final tally is misleading. The Dolphins should have been down 24-7 in the third quarter, but Jaguars RB Travis Etienne fumbled on the goal line for a touchback.
The Fins would hit an 80-yard home run touchdown to Tyreek Hill on the very first play of the ensuing possession — a strike that injected Hard Rock Stadium with a shot of adrenaline after an otherwise subdued effort from the home team.
As mentioned above, Buffalo should have won by more than six points on Sunday, and the Dolphins benefitted from a 14-point swing in a two-play sequence. Even with Josh Allen’s hand injury (non-throwing), the Bills are a step up from Jacksonville — most notably on offense.
Buffalo’s revamped receiving corps had nine different players catch a pass, and five of those players recorded 23 yards or more (with one other at 19 yards). The Bills ranked No. 2 in EPA per dropback in Week 1.
This summer's look-ahead Thursday Night Football odds had Miami at -1, and Allen’s status on the short week has bookies hanging Fins -2, despite Allen telling reporters that he’ll be fine. I believe Allen’s hand will be good enough, and I like the short underdog in this divisional dance on Thursday night.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 50.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
There are injury concerns for both the Bills and Dolphins defenses heading into the short week.
Miami’s stop unit is already banged up, specifically at linebacker, with Bradley Chubb starting the season on the sideline. Jaelan Phillips is still recovering from an Achilles injury and played 64% of snaps in Week 1 and fellow LB David Long Jr. played through a hand injury Sunday and is questionable for this quick turnaround on Thursday.
Buffalo didn’t come out of Week 1 unscathed, either. On top of Allen’s hand, the Bills potentially lost starting nickelback Taron Johnson to a forearm injury. The Bills defense doesn’t look anything like 2023, with departures and injuries shaking up the depth chart.
That said, Buffalo did a good job keeping the Cardinals attack in front of them and checked Arizona to the seventh-lowest success rate in Week 1, giving up just 4.5 yards per play. In the two meetings with Miami last season, the Bills held the Fins to outputs of 14 and 20 points.
As for the Buffalo offense, this is no longer a “deep strike” playbook, instead relying on bigger and burlier receivers to muscle their way for the football and add yards after the catch. The Bills, under OC Joe Brady, also ran the ball at the fourth-highest rate in Week 1 (56.9%) compared to their 46.5% run rate last season.
The Dolphins are also striving for a better balance of play calling, utilizing the run to not only set up the pass but give this offense a more methodical approach. Mike McDaniel was trailing for a good part of that Week 1 opener, so he handed off on only 38% of snaps. We will see more touches for Miami’s talented backfield of Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, and Jeff Wilson Jr.
The forecast for Thursday Night Football could also impact the output, putting early-season conditioning to the test with little rest. Currently, temperatures are projected to be in the low 80s but the humidex is at 80% and will make it feel like 104 degrees. That also brings potential thunderstorms to Hard Rock Stadium, with showers threatening the first half.
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Bills vs Dolphins live odds
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