The NFL regular season is going out on a bang, as the Miami Dolphins (11-5) are hosting the Buffalo Bills (10-6) for Sunday Night Football in Week 18 with the AFC East title on the line. The Week 18 odds see the Bills as a slight road favorite as they head into this critical matchup.
While many star players will be banged up for this one, most of them will still be playing for the division title on Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill will try to overcome the SNF odds and lead the Dolphins to victory, while Josh Allen will battle through neck and finger injuries as the Bills try to complete a dramatic late-season comeback.
Keep reading to see my free NFL picks and predictions for Sunday Night Football NFL player props on January 7.
If you’re looking to dig deeper into the matchup, make sure to read our Bills vs. Dolphins predictions to get all the insights you need about the final game of the regular season! And if you're keen on this particular QB matchup, we've got a pair of spotlight pieces on Tua Tagovailoa odds and Josh Allen odds.
Bills vs Dolphins SNF props
- Josh Allen anytime TD (-115 at FanDuel)
- Tyreek Hill Over 92.5 rec yds (-110 at BetMGM)
- Stefon Diggs Under 60.5 rec yds (-110 at bet365)
Picks made on January 7 at 12:50 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Bills vs Dolphins SNF props
Prop bet #1: All-in on Allen
Is Josh Allen experiencing a regression this season, or is he one of the league’s top — and possibly underrated — NFL MVP odds candidates? For the most part, the first half of the season seemed like the former, while the dual-threat quarterback has come on strong down the stretch.
It’s true that Allen’s passing numbers are down a bit this year. While the completion percentage and yardage are on pair with his last few outstanding years, he is throwing fewer touchdowns (27) and more interceptions (16) than we’ve seen in any of his peak seasons.
However, Allen has more than made up for that with his legs. The quarterback has run for 15 touchdowns on the campaign, tied with Jalen Hurts for the most in the league this year among QBs. Allen has come on strong down the stretch when the Bills have needed him most, running for eight scores in the last five games.
Buffalo wants this game. In fact, as of Saturday night, the Bills still haven’t clinched anything, and this may prove to be a win-or-go-home affair for them. Allen will show up to play, and even if some of his injuries limit him in the passing game, he’ll sacrifice his body to get into the end zone yet again.
Josh Allen prop: Anytime TD (-115 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Getting over the Hill
Speaking of overlooked MVP candidates, Tyreek Hill may be one of two non-quarterbacks (alongside Christian McCaffery) who could get at least some consideration for the award this year aside from NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds support. Hill has been electric for the Dolphins, catching 112 passes for 1,717 yards and 12 touchdowns on the season.
Those numbers looked even more impressive earlier in the year, but injuries have slowed down the 29-year-old a bit over the last few weeks. Foot and ankle woes have limited Hill, though he only missed one game — a Week 15 win over the New York Jets. After some questions during the week, Hill fully participated in practice on Friday, making it likely he’s in for Sunday Night Football.
Hill didn’t have an outstanding game against the Bills his first time out, as he was only targeted five times for three catches. Those were still fairly big chunk plays, however, as he managed to go for 58 yards. The Bills defense has been solid against the pass this year, but shouldn’t be a match for a Dolphins offense that is absolutely dynamic through the air, averaging 271.7 passing yards per game.
Hill has gone for at least 99 passing yards in four of his last six games, and has never again been held to just three catches in a game since the last matchup against Buffalo. In a must-win game for the No. 2 seed, the Dolphins will lean on their stars, and we should see Hill get plenty of targets, catches, and yards on Sunday night.
Tyreek Hill prop: Over 92.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #3: Diggs-ing a deeper hole
Much like Hill, Stefon Diggs started the year on an absolute tear for the Bills, compiling over 100 receiving yards in five of his first six games. However, Diggs’ numbers have plummeted since then, as he hasn’t eclipsed that 100-yard mark in any of his last 10 games, catching only three touchdown passes in the process.
This has been due in part to the fact that opposing defenses have clamped down on Diggs, realizing he’s the most dangerous weapon by far in the Buffalo receiving corps. As a result, Allen has been targeting Diggs on shorter routes and fewer explosive plays. The two haven’t combined for a play of over 22 yards since hitting a pass for 34 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals back on November 5.
Allen’s injury struggles have probably only made the situation worse, as the Buffalo quarterback has increasingly relied on his legs rather than his arm to lead the Bills to points. Over their last four games, Diggs has caught a total of 17 balls and has never even hit the 50-yard mark for a single game.
While Diggs was great in the first matchup against Miami, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to repeat that same magic on Sunday night. Buffalo has every chance to win this game, but it won’t be in another shootout, and there’s no magic formula that’s suddenly going to get Diggs back to his early season numbers. With the Stefon Diggs odds for his receiving yards prop set at 60.5 yards, the Under is the clear play here.
Stefon Diggs prop: Under 60.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
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