Bills vs Jets Odds, Picks, and Predictions for MNF: Dalton's Debut is Where the Money's At

NFL bettors hear those unmistakable four notes for the first time — dah, dah, dah, dahhhhhh — when the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills tonight to finish off the first week of the 2023 NFL season. 

The Monday Night Football odds suggest the finale will be a good one, with New York taking the field with high expectations and a capable quarterback in Aaron Rodgers — two things Jets backers haven’t had in many years.

The arrival of Rodgers in the Big Apple has made the AFC East one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, although Buffalo is still the team to beat — the Bills are still trying to get over the postseason hump and a Week 1 win in East Rutherford will go a long way in setting the tone for 2023.

I size up the NFL odds for tonight's matchup, plus give my best free NFL picks, for Bills vs. Jets on Monday, September 11.

Bills vs Jets odds

Bills vs Jets predictions

If you read my weekly NFL picks and predictions column, you’ll see I’m taking the points with Gang Green for this monster Monday matchup. And if you caught Covers’ Blitz show with Derek Carty, you’ll see his projections are calling for a big debut from Aaron Rodgers.

The New York Jets can’t have all the fun, though.

One of the splashiest additions for any offense this offseason was the Buffalo Bills selecting tight end Dalton Kincaid with the No. 25 pick in the NFL Draft. Kincaid was a pass-catching machine for Utah and adds another wrinkle to this explosive Buffalo air attack.

The Bills will roll out more 12-personnel in 2023 (they were dead last in usage in 2022) with two talented TEs in Kincaid and Dawson Knox. That formation will come in handy against the Jets’ aggressive pass rush, adding extra pass blockers and short passing options for Allen when under duress.

Kincaid turned heads in training camp with his instant chemistry with Allen and had three catches on four targets for 45 yards in Buffalo’s exhibition game with Pittsburgh last month.

He faces a New York defense that allowed the sixth-most yards to rival tight ends in 2022 (1,039 yards on 94 receptions). In the two clashes with Gang Green last season, Allen targeted fellow TE Knox 11 times for seven receptions and a total of 66 yards with a touchdown.

Due to Kincaid being a rookie, predictive models are all over the place in forecasting his Monday Night Football debut. However, all of the projections I weighed sit above his receiving yards totals of 26.5 yards (Over -110) with a ceiling of more than 39 yards. My number is at 32.5 yards from the first-year TE.

Kincaid’s receiving total for Week 1 opened as low as 25.5 yards and has bounced between 26.5 and 27.5 for the last few days. That market sits as high as 27.5 (Over -110) as of this afternoon, but here you can find the total a yard shorter.

My best bet: Dalton Kincaid Over 26.5 receiving yards (-110)

Bills vs Jets same-game parlay

Dalton Kincaid Over 26.5 receiving yards (-110)

Aaron Rodgers Over 232.5 passing yards (-110)

Jets +2.5 (-110)

+500 at bet365

Josh Allen looked to the TE a lot when facing the Jets pass rush last season and Kincaid will see plenty of snaps — and targets — in his first pro game.

Rodgers didn't come to New York to hand the ball off. He's got a solid group of receivers and plenty of projections call for a solid showing in his MetLife debut.

I believe he'll have a huge impact on a team that was held back by bad quarterback play last season. The Jets have the edge in defense and have had success slowing down Allen & Co.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bills vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis

Rodgers’ move to New York instantly made the Jets contenders in the AFC and the opening line for this AFC East rivalry showed it, with some books starting Monday Night Football at a pick’em. Other shops went with Bills -1 with the opener back in the spring.

My NFL power ratings produced a spread of Bills -0.12 which agrees with the PK opener. However, the spread didn’t stay on the fence long. There has been one-sided play against the Jets all summer long and that’s moved this line all the way to Buffalo -2.5 as of Sunday morning.

According to BetMGM, 68% of the bet count and 66% of handle is on the visitor. Our Covers Consensus numbers agree, showing 61% of picks on the Bills.

There are a lot of questions around the quality of quarterback Rodgers will be in New York. He's coming off a disappointing 2022 campaign in which the former MVP looked pedestrian for the Packers, and was very open with his frustrations with the franchise and the players around him.

However, since being dealt to New York, Rodgers seems reinvigorated and has a talented group of skill players around him, namely WR Garrett Wilson. Last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year had an instant connection with Rodgers in camp and is projected for a sensational sophomore campaign.

The Jets may not need MVP levels from Rodgers and the offense to be successful. Given how solid this New York defense is, just above-average support on the scoreboard is a big turnaround from last season when the offense finished 30th in EPA per play.

Gang Green was one of the better teams on the other side of the ball in 2022, boasting the sixth-lowest EPA allowed per contest. The Jets have a great pass rush up front and a ball-hawking secondary, hoping that chaos can continue to disrupt opponents this season.

The Bills' attack will be a test right out of the gate. Buffalo still has one of the better passing games in the land, headlined by QB Josh Allen and featuring a surplus of capable pass catchers. The Bills finished second in EPA per play and EPA per dropback in 2022 but did hit a snag against their division rivals.

The Jets and Bills split their two matchups last season, with the New York defense excelling in both outings. Buffalo was checked to outputs of 17 and 20 points — two of just three games in which the Bills failed to score 21+ points — and Allen completed only 55.7% of his throws with one touchdown and two interceptions in those games with Gang Green. He lugged a 64.4 passer rating vs. New York.

As for Buffalo’s defense, there is a transition in 2023 for this stop unit. Defensive coordinator Lezlie Frazier left the team this offseason and has dumped play-calling duties on head coach Sean McDermott.

And while the Bills are projected to be a Top-10 defense, the linebacker corps is no longer the beating heart of this group. Long-time standout Tremaine Edmunds signed with Chicago and veteran LB Von Miller starts the season on the PUP list.

Monday’s Over/Under total hit the board at 47 points back in the spring but has since slimmed to as low as 45, respecting the defenses on the field and accounting for a new Jets offense under new OC Nathaniel Hackett running at full speed for the first time.

According to BetMGM, 58% of bets and 67% of the money is siding with the Under on Monday. These AFC East foes finished below the total in both matchups last year and have stayed Under the number in six of their last eight encounters overall.

Bills vs Jets betting trend to know

The Bills were road favorites in eight games in 2022, with those outings producing a 1-7 Over/Under mark. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jets.

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