The Buffalo Bills slumped to a defeat against the Jaguars last week and now they face another struggling team, in the New York Jets, in this AFC clash. Can Josh Allen and the Bills get back on track or will the legend of Mike White continue to grow?
If you’re betting on this game, then ensure you read our NFL picks and predictions for the Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets.
Bills vs Jets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Bills opened as strong 13-point favorites, they’re still heavily favored but it’s now come in to just a 12-point spread. The total has also dropped from 48 at opening to 47.5 now.. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Bills vs Jets picks
Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for NFL Week 10, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Bills vs Jets game info
• Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
• Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Bills at Jets betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Key injuries
Bills: Tremaine Edmunds LB (Out), Jon Feliciano G (Out), Dawson Knox TE (Out).
Jets: Zach Wilson QB (Out), Denzel Mims WR (Out), Tyler Kroft TE (Out), Vinny Curry DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jets.
Bills vs Jets predictions
Bills -12 (-110)
Last Sunday didn’t go well for the Buffalo Bills. They were 14.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars and collapsed to a 9-6 defeat. It wasn’t a game for the neutrals with no touchdowns scored and only 519 combined yards of offense.
Only a few weeks ago, we were looking at the Bills as front runners for the AFC, but questions will now be asked. The Bills don’t just need to win this game, they need to make a statement against a team still considered to be one of the worst in the league.
Josh Allen passed for 264 yards and got intercepted twice against the Jags. It was a poor performance for a man still in contention to win MVP. It’s also slightly concerning that this happened against the Jaguars, a team who have struggled on defense this year. We’ve seen enough from Allen this season and last to know that this is an outlier performance, but he’ll still need to prove it to us. He has every chance to do that against a defense who have given up more scrimmage yards than anybody else in the league.
The Jags only managed to put up points against the Bills with three field goals, testament to the brilliant defense that they have. No defense in the league gives up less yardage per game with the Bills giving up 30 yards less per game than their nearest competition, the Carolina Panthers. They’re still the best-ranked defense in DVOA too, ranked first against the pass and third against the rush. It’s going to be tough to score on this team.
Will their defense be able to stop Mike White though? Robert Saleh has named the former Western Kentucky man as the starter ahead of Joe Flacco, with rookie Zach Wilson still missing with injury. White’s performances for the Jets have been outrageous, he’s become a meme but the reality is that this can’t continue. This purple patch is reminiscent of Jeremy Lin and “Linsanity” and there seems little reason why the fifth-round pick from 2018 would be able to keep up his performances at this level.
The Jets have improved this year with two wins to their name against the Titans and Bengals. Last week they lost to the Colts but before Mike White got injured, they looked in good shape to get a third win. They’re a far better team than many think and will manage to secure a few more wins before the season ends.
But ultimately, it might be too soon against the Bills who absolutely must bounce back and put up a huge performance at MetLife on Sunday.
Over 47.5 (-110)
We’ve mentioned how the Jets are improving every week and their offense looks to be clicking with every game. Their backfield seems to be forming into something quite interesting and rookie wideout Elijah Moore looks like he’s becoming the main man on the offense.
In their past two weeks the Jets have put up 64 points and they should be able to score a couple of touchdowns even against this accomplished Bills defense. The problem for the Jets, and the reason I’m picking the Over, is that Buffalo will have to put up big numbers on Sunday if they want to show that their defeat to the Jaguars was a misstep and not the start of a slide. The Bills offense is only ranked 19th in DVOA, only eight spots ahead of the Jets, but they have the potential to go off. The Bills have exceeded 30 points on five occasions this season, scoring 40+ twice in that time. The Bills might not be consistent but they’re capable of huge games and they need one this Sunday.
Michael Carter Over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)
Michael Carter was drafted in the fourth round of this year’s NFL Draft and looked at the start of the season that he’d be in a timeshare with Tevin Coleman. Coleman got injured leaving Carter’s main opposition as Ty Johnson.
Carter has thrived, particularly in the passing game and looks to be a favorite target for Mike White, who for now at least continues to be the starter. In the five games before the Week 6 bye, he only managed 64 receiving yards. In the three games since, he’s had 199 receiving yards which is an average of 66 yards per game. His targets have also increased from a total of 14 across the first five games to 25 in the past three.
That hasn’t translated to a leap in touchdowns with Carter only managing three all season, all on the ground but the increased usage in the passing game is very interesting and it’s coincided with a time when the team has been playing well. This isn’t a brilliant matchup with the Bills defense being so talented, but when Carter has seen increased usage in the passing game it makes sense that we look for that trend to continue further, especially when it’s benefited the Jets’ offense.
