Football fans could be getting a visit from the “Ghost of Super Bowl Future” this holiday season, with the Buffalo Bills taking on the Detroit Lions in Week 15.
This colossal non-conference contest sees two of the league’s top Big Game contenders clashing inside Ford Field, with the tallest total of the 2024 season (54.5 O/U). That means plenty of passing and draws my Bills vs. Lions predictions to hone in on red-hot Buffalo receiver Khalil Shakir.
Here are my NFL picks for today's 4:25 p.m. ET showdown on FOX.
Bills vs Lions predictions and picks
- Spread: Bills +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Bills (+118 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Under 54.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Khalil Shakir Over 55.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Bills vs Lions spread
If you read my Week 15 “NFL Underdogs” column, you’ll see a deeper breakdown of this game. You'll also see that I’m taking the points with the Buffalo Bills as a short-road pup.
The Detroit Lions were able to get past Green Bay last Thursday despite their decimated defense. The Bills are a tougher test and I see Buffalo’s stop unit stepping up after receiving a wake-up call against the Rams last week.
Buffalo +2.5.
Bills vs Lions moneyline
The Lions fight to the finish, but Buffalo is in bounce-back mode, with coach Sean McDermott owning a 69% win rate when coming off a loss during his tenure with the Bills.
Buffalo is more than capable of trading shots with Detroit, especially with the receiving corps at its healthiest in a long time.
Final score: Buffalo 28, Detroit 24.
Bills vs Lions Over/Under
This is the tallest total of the season so far, with this number opening at 51.5 and running up to 54.5 points. So far this year, totals of more than 51 points are 3-5 O/U, and going back to 2021, we’ve seen a total of 51.5 or higher produce a 26-40-1 O/U count (60% Unders).
This game will have a playoff-like atmosphere as these teams are still pushing for the top seed in their respective conferences. We’ll see plenty of points, but not enough to eclipse this inflated number.
Bills vs Lions best bet
My best bet: Khalil Shakir Over 55.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Khalil Shakir is coming off a monster game in Los Angeles last Sunday, snatching five of eight targets for 106 yards and a touchdown on the fast track inside SoFi Stadium.
The Bills’ speedy slot receiver doesn’t get to play indoors often, but when he does, Shakir thrives. He averages almost 15 yards per reception in covered venues, compared to 12.98 yards per catch outdoors during his career.
Shakir has grown into one of Josh Allen’s favorite options, with his targets erupting since Week 7. He’s drawn at least seven passes in seven straight games, bringing in 45 total receptions for a collective 551 receiving yards — an average of almost 79 yards per game over that stretch.
Shakir’s Over/Under receiving yards prop is at 55.5 yards O/U, which is a bar he’s jumped in five of those seven outings. Player projections are positive for Week 15 as well, with all but one of the models sourced coming in at 56 yards or higher with a ceiling of 66 yards.
My forecast calls for 60 yards, but I strongly believe Shakir has the potential for a massive outing in Motown. Not only does he get to play on the clean turf inside Ford Field this Sunday, but he’ll draw a one-sided matchup against Detroit slot corner Amik Robertson.
The fifth-year CB is getting singled out by opposing passing games, seeing 60 targets in 13 outings while allowing a passer rating of 94.2 against — a glaring number when measured up to the Lions’ defense as a whole (76.5). His current coverage rating at PFF sits at 52.4, which puts him among the worst coverage corners in the league.
Shakir will exploit that weak coverage and make Detroit play with his ability to break off big gains. He’s third in the NFL in yards after the catch and faces a Lions secondary that’s given up 43 passing plays of 20+ yards (seventh most).
Bills vs Lions same-game parlay
Khalil Shakir 50+ receiving yards
Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Bills +2.5
Shakir has gone for 50 or more receiving yards in six of his last seven games and gets a great matchup in coverage against Detroit.
Josh Allen locks down his MVP campaign with a big showing in Motown, including two or more passing touchdowns.
Buffalo bounces back from a loss last Sunday and takes advantage of the Lions' dinged-up defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Lions odds
Bills vs Lions live odds
Bills vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo +2.5 | Detroit -2.5
- Moneyline: Buffalo +120 | Detroit -145
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Bills vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
• Detroit opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and we’ve seen this line shrink to as low as -1 before coming back to the original opener. Covers Consensus shows 61% of picks siding with the Lions in Week 15.
• The Over/Under opened as low as 51.5 and was quickly bet up to as high as 54.5 points, with 72% of picks on the Over according to Covers Consensus.
• The Lions are expecting to get some bodies back on defense, but this stop unit is still very thin, especially up front on the defensive line. Alim McNeill, DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike are all questionable.
Bills vs Lions betting trend to know
The Bills have had nine regular season totals close at 50 points or higher since 2022 and are 3-6 O/U in those games while also going 6-3 SU. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Lions.
Bills vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Bills vs Lions latest injuries
Bills vs Lions weather
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