The best NFL betting team of the last two decades is in an unfamiliar position in Week 16, as the New England Patriots try to play spoiler against the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.
After 16 division titles in the last 17 seasons, the 6-8 Patriots are eliminated from postseason contention and installed as seven-point home underdogs against the 11-3 Bills.
We break down the NFL odds with our best free Bills vs. Patriots picks and predictions for Monday, December 28, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Betting Preview
Weather
Foxborough on Monday night will see temperatures around 38 degrees, no expected precipitation and breezes up to 8 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bills: John Brown WR (Questionable), Stefon Diggs (Questionable), Cody Ford OL (Out), Reggie Gilliam TE (Out), Jaquan Johnson S (Questionable), Ty Nsekhe T (Questionable), Andre Roberts WR (Questionable).
Patriots: Julian Edelman WR (Questionable), Donte Moncrief WR (Questionable), Damien Harris RB (Questionable), David Andrews C (Questionable), John Simon DE (Questionable), Ja'whaun Bently LB (Questionable), Stephon Gilmore CB (Out), Rex Burkhead RB (Questionable), Isaiah Wynn OL (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 6-0 in the Patriots' last six games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Patriots.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Bills are looking like Super Bowl contenders after winning seven of their last eight games—and going 6-0 ATS in their previous six contests.
Third-year quarterback Josh Allen is having an MVP-caliber campaign, completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns while adding another eight scores on the ground.
Allen and the high-scoring Bills will face a solid Patriots defense that allows just 21.5 points per game, despite losing multiple key players from last year's stop-unit. They are particularly tough against opposing QBs, holding foes to an average passer rating of 86.1 (tied for sixth-best in the league) and limiting them to 212.4 passing yards per game.
Despite being having less talent than most of their opponents, the Patriots still have the best coach in the business in Bill Belichick and have been competitive this season, especially at home where they are 4-2 SU with wins over the Cardinals and Ravens.
When these AFC East foes faced off in November, Buffalo won by just three points with a game-winning field goal late in the fourth quarter. The Bills may be division champs this year but I'm not spotting the Pats seven points at home as long as they have a tough defense and Belichick calling the shots.
PREDICTION: New England +7 (-115)
Over/Under Pick
The Bills have been one of the best offensive teams in the league this season. However, they lean heavily on Allen and the passing game to get things going and the Pats secondary is still stingy—even with shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore sidelined for the rest of the year.
In addition, New England's loss of Gilmore could be offset by an ankle injury to Bills No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs, who is listed as questionable.
New England has been much weaker against the run this year but Buffalo's ground game has been inconsistent and might not be able to take advantage. As for New England's offense, it's been stagnant in averaging just 330.8 yards and 20.6 points per game.
The Pats use a very run-focused gameplan around Cam Newton and play at one of the slowest paces in the league. That combination of slow, ugly offense and solid defense has led to an 0-6 O/U record in their last six games. With cold weather brewing for this division battle, back the Under again.
PREDICTION: Under 46 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
We mentioned the previous game between these teams in November, and it's worth noting that Allen was absolutely shut down in that contest. The Bills signal-caller threw for just 154 yards with an interception and had 2.3 yards per carry on 10 rush attempts.
Belichick has a reputation as a mastermind who can gameplan against opposing QBs and this year certainly backs up that claim.
In addition to that first game against Allen, the Pats have held Kyler Murray and Jared Goff to 170 passing yards or fewer while limiting Chargers rookie phenom Justin Herbert to 3.9 yards per pass attempt.
With snow and a banged-up Diggs also a possible factor take the Under 277.5 on Allen's passing yards.
PREDICTION: Josh Allen Under 277.5 Passing Yards (-119)
Bills vs Patriots Betting Card
- New England +7 (-115)
- Under 46 (-110)
- Josh Allen Under 277.5 Passing Yards (-119)
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