We welcome back NFL betting with a bang — and a potential Super Bowl preview — when the Buffalo Bills visit the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football in Week 1.
The Bills have high hopes for 2022, climbing to the top of the Super Bowl odds this offseason while also winning over early-bird bettors, who have moved Buffalo from a +1 underdog to a 2.5-point favorite on the road in SoFi Stadium.
The Rams are rare underdogs — especially for a defending champ at home in the season opener — and finished 3-0 ATS as pups last season, owning an all-time 11-8 ATS count as underdogs under Sean McVay.
The NFL’s food chain gets figured out when these apex predators collide in a non-conference clash. Here are our best NFL picks and predictions for Bills at Rams.
Bills vs Rams best odds
Bills vs Rams picks and predictions
The NFL is going to put its best foot forward in promoting this season opener, which means pushing the leading men under center and two dynamic offenses. However, the foundations of both of these franchises are the stingy stop units.
Defense will hold the edge early on in this game, as both offenses slowly dip their toe into the playbook — feeling things out, throwing a couple of quick jabs, and neither wanting to make the first crucial mistake.
The Bills have a wider margin for error, given that promoted offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is calling plays for the first time ever, due to Brian Daboll defecting to the Giants. I’m also watching the Buffalo offensive line closely, as it underwent a bit of a facelift this offseason and is projected to take steps back from the 2021 unit that finished near the top of many protection metrics. Those past metrics fuel the early-season 2022 odds.
Los Angeles’ pass rush makes even the stoutest offensive lines crumble and will once again rank among the league’s best at getting to the QB. Head coach Sean McVay is very aware of the damage Bills QB Josh Allen can do and he’ll try to disrupt him early on, not allowing the Bills offense time to develop big plays, find its rhythm, or set the pace for this contest.
Part of that game plan will also fall on the L.A. offense, which is looking to get back to more balance in its play calling. McVay has never shied away from running the ball but an injury to RB Cam Akers last year took away a lot of the pop from the ground game, leaving Los Angeles to throw more.
With Akers healthy, L.A. is going to mix in plenty of handoffs — at least early on, as it sees what the Bills bring defensively while also playing keep-away from Allen. McVay rolled out a much slower tempo on offense in opening halves last season, ranked out 13th in seconds per play before giving it the gas in the final 30 minutes (eighth fastest).
This full-game total is a tall one, bouncing around 52 to 53 points at most books, but I’m banking on a slower start Thursday. Adding to those angles above is the pageantry of the NFL Kickoff Game which doubles as the Rams’ Super Bowl banner raising.
The team will hold a ceremony just before kickoff which, along with renditions of the national anthem and “Lift Every Voice and Sing”, as well as the regular pomp and circumstance of the season opener (Hollywood style), will put players on ice between pregame warmups and actually hitting someone.
We see a similar situation in Super Bowl games, which usher players from warmups to the locker room for an extended stay before getting underway. That often leads to flat starts and lower-scoring first quarters, when combined with big game nerves, guys playing a little tight, offseason rust, and hungry defenses jacked up to hit somebody for real.
Going back to 2010, NFL openers have seen an average of 8.3 points scored in the first quarter and eight of those dozen openers have had seven or fewer points recorded in the first 15 minutes.
Not only has the increase in game total driven the 1Q Over/Under to 10 points at some books (and the full-game Over could very much hit once both sides get going), but we’re also dealing with two defensive units — consistent in their approach with respective DC’s Leslie Frazier and Raheem Morris back — that ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in defensive DVOA in first quarters at Football Outsiders in 2021.
Some shops are dealing Under 9.5 (+100) while others are at Under 10 (-104), so go get that push protection at nearly no extra cost.
My best bet: First-quarter Under 10 (-104 at FanDuel)
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Bills vs Rams betting preview
Jump to:
•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
This NFL opener was the first spread on the board for the 2022 season and those early-bird lines had Los Angeles as a 1-point home favorite hosting the Bills. Sportsbook took some early money on Buffalo and pushed this spread to pick’em then over the fence to Bills -1.
When news that Rams QB Matthew Stafford was dealing with “abnormal” elbow soreness during training camp arose in August, bettors jumped on these reports trying to get ahead of any further injury news, and ran the spread all the way to Buffalo -2.5.
But, with news that Stafford is no longer suffering any discomfort, some books have ticked back to Bills -2 or are dealing L.A. +2.5 (-115). Betting splits from multiple operators are reporting a heavy one-sided handle on Buffalo, having taken the bulk of those bets over the summer months.
Over/Under analysis
This Over/Under number hit the board around 52.5 and slimmed to 51.5 points in early August, with bettors playing it safe with Stafford’s elbow issues.
However, the Over has attracted action in the past couple weeks and this total has ticked up to as high as 53.5 points before settling back at 52.5 and some buyback on the Under dipping the Over/Under to 52 as of this writing.
Public players tend to gravitate toward the Over in primetime games and with two solid passing games and star quarterbacks, there could be more money on the Over showing up before kickoff on Thursday night.
Bills vs Rams game info
• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• Date: Thursday, September 8, 2022
• Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC
Bills vs Rams key injuries
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Bills vs Rams weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Bills vs Rams betting trend to know
Since 2000, Week 1 NFL games with closing totals of 50 points or more are 14-9-1 O/U (60.4% Overs). Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Rams.
