Highlighting the NFL Week 4 odds is a massive AFC matchup on Sunday Night Football with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Baltimore Ravens.
Buffalo is on a short week after blasting the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night and gets its toughest test yet in a Baltimore squad that is much stronger than its 1-2 record would lead some to believe.
I'm leaning toward the Ravens playing keep away as I dig into the opening spread and total for Sunday Night Football and give my early Bills vs. Ravens predictions and NFL picks for September 29.
Bills vs Ravens predictions
Early spread lean
Ravens -1.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The lookahead line for this huge conference clash was Baltimore Ravens -1.5 before the Buffalo Bills rolled over Jacksonville at home on Monday. Yet that 47-10 rout hasn’t really moved the needle as of Tuesday morning.
The official Week 4 opening spread has the Ravens as 1.5-point home chalk with some shops showing -2. Not only is Buffalo traveling on a short week, but Baltimore was just as impressive in its win at Dallas in Week 3.
The Ravens’ 28-25 victory over the Cowboys wasn’t as close as that result would have you think. Baltimore was up 28-6 entering the fourth quarter but a quick Cowboys’ touchdown and a successful onside kick set up a late surge from the home team.
Baltimore’s offense found its footing last Sunday, putting up more than 450 yards on an average of 7.9 yards per play with a blend of pass and run. The Ravens dominated the game between the hash marks and chewed up almost 35 minutes of possession while finishing 4-for-9 on third downs and a perfect 3-for-3 in the red zone.
Buffalo’s defense has looked strong to start the season but will find itself in a fight in Week 4, especially on the ground. Holding big leads has kept opponents from running against Buffalo, but the Bills are giving up 4.7 yards per carry and rank 27th in EPA allowed per carry to rival run games.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will attack Buffalo’s interior, which is missing key bodies at linebacker and playing on short rest with travel in between. The Ravens are No. 1 in EPA per handoff and tops in yards per carry at 5.9.
That dominance on the turf allows John Harbaugh to play keep away from Josh Allen and the Bills’ explosive offense and grind out a victory on Sunday Night Football.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 46.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The lookahead total was as low as 45.5 points before the Bills bashed the Jaguars over the head with 47 points. The official Week 4 O/U sits at 46.5 on Tuesday morning.
As mentioned, Baltimore’s rushing attack is going to expose the Bills' interior defense and problems stopping the run. That means many short gains with the clock still ticking and limited possessions for the Bills.
The Ravens’ late collapse against the Cowboys cost Under bettors in Week 3, but you can be sure the Baltimore defense will get an earful in tape sessions this week. The Ravens’ defense is the stiffest test yet for Josh Allen & Co. after taking on Arizona, Miami, and Jacksonville to open the year — all of which sits in the lower third of Defensive DVOA at FTN.
Buffalo’s offense is no longer a big-strike attack, after trading out speed for size in the receiving corps. Allen has seen his intended air yards per pass dip from 8.7 in 2023 to just 6.6 through three games in 2024. The Ravens pass rush will also have Allen on a quick clock, which is something the Bills QB hasn’t worried about this season (7.2% pressure rate — lowest in the NFL).
Neither team plays especially fast with little no-huddle, and both will be trying to park the opposing offense on the sideline. While offensive coordinators have flipped for both sides, their last three meetings have all stayed below totals of 44, 50, and 52.
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Bills vs Ravens live odds
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