Bills vs Ravens SNF Prop Bets: Henry Goes Hog Wild vs Buffalo

Prop bet #1: Derrick Henry Over 68.5 rushing yards

-110 at bet365

The Buffalo Bills have been fortunate to get out to early leads and force their opponents into passing situations since they've struggled against the run. The Bills are 27th in defensive rush EPA and 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.7).

Despite positive game scripts, they allowed 92 rushing yards on 17 carries against Jacksonville last week and surrendered 139 yards on the ground versus Miami in Week 2. In what should be a closer game this Sunday, Buffalo will have a tough time containing a Baltimore Ravens ground game spearheaded by four-time Pro Bowler Derrick Henry.

Henry rushed for 84 yards on 18 carries in Week 2 before rumbling for 151 yards on 25 carries last week. The Bills have missed Matt Milano in the middle of their defense and with fellow linebacker Terrel Bernard joining him on the sidelines, expect King Henry to pile up yards here.

Prop bet #2: Dalton Kincaid Over 36.5 receiving yards

-120 at bet365

Dalton Kincaid was highly-productive as a rookie last year but has been surprisingly quiet this season. He was held to just 11 yards on one catch in Buffalo's season opener, had four receptions for 33 yards in Week 2 and reeled in three catches for 41 yards last week. 

That said, the Bills have been running the ball at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and should throw the ball more in this matchup. Not only is there a lower chance of Buffalo playing with a big lead, but it will be tough to find running room against a Ravens stop unit that leads the league in defensive rush success rate.

Expect the Bills to attack a vulnerable Baltimore pass defense that ranks 27th in dropback EPA and 24th in dropback success rate. The Ravens have struggled to defend tight ends, allowing the second-most receptions (23) and receiving yards (280) to the position.

With Baltimore getting burned in consecutive weeks by Jake Ferguson and Raiders rookie Brock Bowers, expect Kincaid to put together his best game of the year. 

Prop bet #3: James Cook Over 75.5 rushing + receiving yards

-115 at bet365

James Cook has gone well above this number in every game this season, picking up a season-low 87 total yards on 15 touches last week.

Cook might not run with his usual efficiency against Baltimore but he should get more carries and is also a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Keep in mind that he was limited to just 11 carries in each of the past two weeks while backup Ray Davis logged a total of 16 carries for 51 yards. 

Cook has been ceding snaps to Davis in blowout wins but he'll receive the lion's share of reps in closer contests. We saw that in Week 1 when carried the rock 19 times for 71 yards while up another 32 yards through the air. 

The Ravens have been stout against the run, but they've allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing running backs (137). In addition, their run defense might not be quite as dominant as their early-season numbers would suggest since they've faced the Cowboys and Raiders' anemic ground games.