The injury-riddled San Francisco 49ers return home on Sunday for a Week 4 matchup with the New England Patriots.
With their wide receiver room still dealing with ailments, my 49ers vs. Patriots predictions have running back Jordan Mason taking advantage of a Pats run defense that allowed 133 yards on the ground to the New York Jets in Week 3.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this matchup on September 29.
Patriots vs 49ers prediction
My best bet
Jordan Mason 75+ rushing yards (-155 at BetMGM)
My analysis
When Christian McCaffrey was placed on the IR, not many people knew the name Jordan Mason.
The former Georgia Tech standout went undrafted in 2022 but was ultimately signed by the San Francisco 49ers. He played a backup role the last two seasons in the Bay Area and has already surpassed his career-high in rushing yards after only three weeks.
Mason made a big statement in his first NFL start in Week 1, dominating the Jets for 147 yards on the ground. He kept that up in Week 2, rushing for another 100 yards against the Minnesota Vikings before adding 77 more yards in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams.
Now you can see why this bet is worth it. Mason has hit Over 75 yards in every single contest so far in 2024.
San Fran has relied heavily on the run game and the New England Patriots aren’t the best against the run, either. They’ve allowed an average of 83 rushing yards per game and 101.5 on the road.
Mason has also had a minimum of 19 carries in each contest. Expect him to feast and play a key part in the outcome on Sunday.
Patriots vs 49ers same-game parlay
Jordan Mason 75+ rushing yards
Brock Purdy 250+ passing yards
Patriots +10.5
I’m expecting Mason to do his job in the 49ers backfield, but so will Brock Purdy under center.
Purdy has been solid so far despite the team’s 1-2 record, completing 72.6% of his passes for 842 yards and four touchdowns against one interception.
He has surpassed the 250-yard passing mark in his last two games, throwing for 319 vs. Minnesota and 292 against the Rams. Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk are his main two targets right now while George Kittle is also important.
Sure, the Niners might like to run the football, but Purdy also throws it a lot, too.
The Patriots' defense is allowing 244.3 passing yards per game and allowed 263 last weekend to Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. While Purdy has never faced New England since coming into the NFL, all signs point to him having another big game, especially since he’s also averaging 251.5 yards per contest at home in his career.
The 49ers are banged up on both sides of the ball — that’s no secret. Defensively, Javon Hargrave, Dee Winters, Jordan Elliott, and Curtis Robinson are all dealing with injuries. Offensively, Deebo Samuel is questionable for Sunday (ankle) while OT Trent Williams is also deemed questionable. CMC is still out, too.
The Patriots are 2-1-0 against the spread this season and I believe they can make this one closer than 10.5 points just based on how depleted San Francisco is.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Patriots vs 49ers odds
Patriots vs 49ers live odds
Patriots vs 49ers opening odds
- Spread: New England +10.5 | San Francisco -10.5
- Moneyline: New England +425 | San Francisco -600
- Over/Under: Over 40 | Under 40
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Patriots vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Patriots are 2-1-0 against the spread this season.
- The 49ers have only one win against the spread.
- New England has hit the Over in just one game.
- San Francisco has hit the Over in two of three contests.
Patriots vs 49ers betting trend to know
The Patriots have only covered the spread in six of their last 20 games (-7.20 Units / -33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. 49ers.
Patriots vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-29-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Patriots vs 49ers latest injuries
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