It’s been a funny start to the season for NFL underdogs.
The big betting headline is the success of sizable pups, with underdogs of +5.5 or higher going 13-1-1 against the spread.
What’s even more shocking is that those 15 teams are a combined 10-5 SU, earning more than +21 units for anyone ballsy enough to back those moneylines.
As for the smaller dogs, there hasn’t been much bark. Underdogs of less than a field goal (+2.5 to +0.5) are just 5-8 SU and ATS, covering at under 39% entering Week 4.
Plenty of points don’t always make the best underdog bets, however.
Last season, dogs of +5.5 or higher finished with a 49.5% cover rate, and going back over the past 10 years, those teams drawing piles of points come through 51% of the time — not enough to turn a profit when you factor in the vig.
The catch is that those early-season spreads reflect the opinion of the betting market, which dubs teams as “bad” in the opening weeks based on last year’s results and off-season expectations. As evidenced by that red-hot 93% cover rate mentioned above, those opinions can be wrong.
As the season plays out, we get more data points to confirm or disprove those opinions. The teams drawing sizable spreads will truly be bad teams deserving of being big underdogs. And Week 4 is usually when we start to get clarity on who NFL clubs really are.
Here are my NFL picks and predictions for Week 4.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 5-4 ATS
NFL Week 4 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+5.5) pick
Every year my fandom dies just a little more and after three weeks of Dallas Cowboys football in 2024, that fandom looks like that bag of lettuce you forgot about at the back of the fridge.
This is by far the least talented Cowboys team I’ve seen in a long, long time. That includes the guys on the sideline.
The one bright spot was supposed to be the defense, which has ranked among the most disruptive in the land over the last few seasons. But with Dan Quinn departing and Mike Zimmer taking over as defensive coordinator, the Cowboys’ D has lost its heart.
Dallas is still blitzing a ton and generating a high-pressure rate, but it’s getting nothing out of it. Opponents are simply taking to the turf and exploiting a soft front seven, pushing the Cowboys to dead last in EPA allowed per handoff and 5.4 yards given up per carry, also worst in the NFL.
And then there’s the offense. Gone are the days of explosive plays, elite pass protection, and the ability to run the ball.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are about it for this Cowboys attack, which enters Week 4 looking better than it should thanks to a fourth-quarter flop from Baltimore last Sunday. Take those 15 minutes out of the fold and this passing game ranks 20th in Week 3. And don’t even get me started on the rushing game, because there is none.
This annual trip to East Rutherford used to be an automatic “W” but things don’t feel right. Not only are the Cowboys on the road for a short week at MetLife, but the New York Giants are riding the momentum of their best showing on the season.
Truth be told, New York should be 2-1 SU at this juncture if not for a weirdo loss to Washington in Week 2 (you need kickers. Who knew?). The advanced metrics don’t hate the G-Men either, with them sitting middle of the road in EPA ratings as well as Defensive DVOA.
This look-ahead line was Cowboys -7 in the summer. The actual opener dropped to as low as -4 before buyback on Dallas from respected bettors knocked it back to -5.5 on Wednesday afternoon. I’ll take the +5.5 divisional dog at home against a team that’s much worse than people think.
PICK: New York Giants +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Green Bay Packers pick
Most books are dealing this spread below the key number of a field goal, with all eyes on the knee of Packers QB Jordan Love. He’s officially day-to-day and trending toward playing, which should move the market to Green Bay -3 and maybe beyond when announced later this week.
Love has been sidelined with a sprained MCL and that wonky knee will be put to the test against the ultra-aggressive defense of Brian Flores, which sits No. 1 in Defensive DVOA at FTN.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator loves making rival QBs nervous with his blitz-heavy schemes, cooking up pressure at the third highest rate and collecting a league-high 16 sacks along with 10 QB hits and 15 hurries.
Flores smells blood in the water with the hobbled Love and will test his mobility early and often on Sunday. Backup QB Malik Willis has been able to scramble when the pocket collapses, with the Cheeseheads o-line ranking 25th in pass block win rate at ESPN. A lumbering Love may not be able to make those escapes.
And speaking of QBs with sore knees, Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold got a scare in Week 3 but isn’t expected to miss any time due to a bone bruise on his left knee. He’s got this Vikes attack clicking and there’s a good chance he’ll have WR2 Jordan Addison on the field for an offense sitting No. 9 in EPA per play.
As mentioned, most books are at Vikings +2.5, but you can get an expensive +3 at the time of this writing. I’ll use it as a placeholder, as I do see the marketing consensus moving to a field goal once Love’s status is official and you won’t have to pay out the ass for it.
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +3 (-131 at Pinnacle)
Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) at Detroit Lions pick
Mike Macdonald has surged up the Coach of the Year futures, opening at +1,600 and is now priced at +550 — the second overall favorite entering Week 4. The former Baltimore defensive guru has brought that intensity to the Pacific Northwest, where the Seattle Seahawks sit as one of the top-ranked stop units in the land.
Seattle is second in EPA allowed per play, first in success rate allowed, and No.2 in Defensive DVOA — which shuts up all those complaints about the team’s strength of schedule through three weeks.
Sure, it’s tough to buy into a defense that’s faced pop-gun attacks led by Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. That’s why the betting markets are giving the Seahawks this many points on Monday night. But I believe in Macdonald’s defense as well as QB Geno Smith.
The Seattle offense has run hot and cold through the opening games of 2024, but again the DVOA metrics (which account for strength of opponent) love the Seahawks, who sit No. 5 at FTN entering Week 4. That offense could get a big shot in the arm if Kenneth Walker returns at running back.
Detroit’s defense has been disruptive and making up for a sputtering offense leaving points on the table. However, the injury bug bit hard in Week 3 with the stop unit losing DE Marcus Davenport and LB Derrick Barnes for the long term. Three other starters are listed as questionable on the defense and numerous backups carry a designation in Week 4.
Geno could thrive against that decimated defense inside the fast track of Ford Field. He’s loves playing inside domes during this career (his stats spike inside) and if the Seahawks can give him time in the pocket, he’ll burn Detroit for big plays. Smith tallied 328 yards and two touchdowns in a win at Detroit last September.
Most books are dealing Seattle +4 for Monday Night Football, but some books have dropped to +3.5. As of Tuesday afternoon, +4.5 is still available which is a half-point hook on the undervalued key number of four (fifth most popular margin behind 3, 6, 7, and 10). Don't overlook that importance.
PICK: Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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