Brock Purdy Odds and MNF Props: Mr. Irrelevant Gets Back on Track in Minnesota

Coming off the worst performance of his young NFL career, Brock Purdy is looking to rebound in a big way as the San Francisco 49ers head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings on Monday Night Football as Week 7 comes to a close.

With “Purdy is bad” truthers coming out guns blazing, Mr. Irrelevant might need to shoulder a bigger load with a hobbled Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams doubtful, and Deebo Samuel out.

You can see how I’m betting on the Brock Purdy odds as we dive into the MNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more MNF coverage, check out our 49ers vs. Vikings predictions and predictions and the best MNF prop picks.

Brock Purdy MNF prop picks

• Over 1.5 passing TDs
• Over 1.5 passing TDs/Aiyuk anytime TD/Kittle anytime TD

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Brock Purdy MNF prop pick

Over 1.5 passing TDs (-105)

Last week’s loss to the Cleveland Browns was the first time the 49ers looked susceptible as a team this year, and the criticism fell on Purdy’s shoulders. He was off-target and indecisive while battling one of the best defenses in the NFL.

This week, he’s poised to get back on track taking on a Vikings defense that’s been middle of the road this season. Minnesota ranks 16th in EPA per play and 17th in EPA per dropback. 

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores runs an aggressive defense and as a result, the youth and inconsistent play at cornerback has been taken advantage of against the better quarterbacks they’ve faced.

In four losses this season to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Philadelphia Eagles, L.A. Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs, the opposing starting quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes) have averaged 263 passing yards and 2.5 total touchdowns. Only Hurts threw less than two touchdowns.

Minnesota has given up the eighth-most touchdown passes in the NFL (nine) this season, and outside of free agent acquisition Byron Murphy, their secondary has been inefficient in coverage.

Opposite Murphy, corner Akayleb Evans has allowed a QB rating of 116.4 when targeted with a 71.9% completion rate and 8.1 yards per target. He’s dealing with an oblique injury and is listed as questionable, which might force rookie Mekhi Blackmon into the lineup. In limited snaps, Blackmon has struggled too with a 129.5 QB rating when targeted.

With one of the most aggressive safety trios in the league, and Flores loves to blitz them, the Vikings can be had there too if the 49ers can get them matched up in man coverage. Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, and Josh Metellus are all allowing over an 80% completion rate.

To take advantage of this secondary, Purdy needs to show up like he had earlier in the season. Despite his shakiness against Cleveland, he still sits No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per play among quarterbacks and has averaged 1.6 TD passes per game, going Over 1.5 in three of six games this year.

The 49ers sit second in the NFL in EPA per play on offense behind Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling and first in EPA per dropback thanks to Purdy’s efficiency and the playmakers around him. 

Even with Samuel out, the former seventh-round pick out of Iowa State has budding superstar Brandon Aiyuk, All-Pro George Kittle, and potentially Christian McCaffrey. Given Shanahan’s ability to design pass-catchers open and Minnesota’s soft spot in the secondary, Purdy should be set up to succeed.

Purdy has thrown at least 20 passes in 12 games, and in those 12 games, he’s thrown at least two touchdowns nine times.

Prop: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing TDs (-105 at bet365)

Brock Purdy MNF same-game parlay

Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing TDs

Brandon Aiyuk anytime TD

George Kittle anytime TD

30% boost available

+850 +1,105 at bet365

If Purdy is going to throw for at least two touchdowns, someone is going to have to catch them. With Samuel out, Aiyuk and Kittle are in for big days against a banged-up and inexperienced cornerback corps.

In six games, Minnesota has allowed six touchdowns to receivers and three to tight ends. They’ve had a problem with allowing chunk plays over the top to receivers with big-play speed (Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, DeVonta Smith), and Aiyuk is one of the most explosive pass catchers in the league and a borderline elite route runner.

When Shanahan dials up play-action deep and intermediate passes, Aiyuk will be in perfect position to create separation against this secondary. He’s been by far Purdy’s most targeted pass catcher this season too (37) despite missing a game. 

The former first-round pick out of Arizona State has averaged 7.4 targets, 91.4 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game this season. Minnesota’s starting cornerbacks (Murphy and Evans) have both allowed two touchdowns this season, while Blackmon has allowed one on just 12 targets.

As for Kittle, the Vikings have had a tough time stopping versatile pass-catching tight ends, giving up 10 catches and a score to Travis Kelce, and eight catches and two scores against the Chargers’ duo of Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr.

Given Shanahan’s ability to scheme Kittle wide open on play-action and misdirections — like he did against the Dallas Cowboys when Kittle had three scores — he should be able to put the former Iowa Hawkeye in advantageous positions.

Since Purdy became the 49ers’ starting quarterback in Week 13 last season, Kittle has caught 10 touchdowns in 11 games. He’s been at his best with Mr. Irrelevant at the helm. 

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